Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 12th, 2026 – The NACHO Trade and What it Might Lead To“It may look pure, but only because blood washes so easily from its blade…”Trump is running out of options over Iran. Bluff and Bluster won’t fix it. When he visits Beijing this week, he will be up against Emperor Xi – who holds all the cards; sufficient oil reserves, dominance over global supply chains, and critically the ability to shut off the single most important commodity in the world today – Chips. On Wall Street they are calling it the NACHO trade – “Not a chance Hormuz Opens”. As US stocks continue to hit record levels on the back of AI FOMO, it would seem economic crisis Trump has inflicted across the rest of the World is an amusing little joke. Ha f*ck*ng ha. The rest of the world is not laughing. The damage is very real.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 11th, 2026 – A tale of 3 Cities, London, DC and Beijing.“[The sun] rose upon no sadder sight than the man of good abilities and good emotions, incapable of their directed exercise…”2 choices for markets this week. Worry about where politics are headed in DC and London, and where the Beijing summit will lead us. Or join the AI party, bet everything on the upcoming IPOs, and dance yourself dizzy before someone pulls the plug. Interesting days ahead. Ah, the joy of another Monday morning in the Global Financial Markets! What have we got to look forward to this week? Political fun and games in London, and then how the Xi / Trump summit plays out in Beijing.But will the market be paying any attention? Probably not when there is so much easy money to be made picking gold off the pavements on AI street. Apparently.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 8th, 2026 – 81 years later what have we learnt?“War is the unfolding of miscalculations.”Today is the 81st anniversary of VE Day – the end of the Second World War in Europe. Markets are fixated on rising stock prices and probably won’t notice. Complacency is the danger. The Wars in Ukraine and Iran highlight success and failure and point towards a very different future world than the expected one. There are massive implications for markets – but that’s a tomorrow problem for markets focused on “now”. I try to catch “shifts” in The Morning Porridge – seeking to contextualise the significance of events across investment and trading. (I guess I always was a frustrated journalist.) I glean and refine my thoughts from the chats I have with clients, and the stuff I read while doing my day job – working to advise and finance on private capital assets, and increasingly on the defence fund, Spitfire Strategic Capital.If there is an overarching theme to The World (in the three short hours I put aside early each morning to scribble the Porridge), it’s how swiftly expectations can change. That has never been truer than it is today. Ukraine was expected to be overrun in just a few days. Iran was going to beaten into submission to Trump’s will over a similar time frame. How these wars play out will have enormous future consequences. 

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 7th, 2026 – The AI Revolution is set to consume itself.“Like Saturn, the Revolution devours its own children.”Markets can’t wait for the Iran war to end – so they can get back to speculating trillions on the AI revolution. The hyperscalers expect to reap monopoly scale rents from owning AI closed-weight models and the digital infrastructure of datacentres and chips. But what if households can build their own AI capabilities cheaper and more effectively? Pop!Yesterday the stock market, yet again, hit new record highs on the back of vague mumblings from President Trump about the Iranians wanting to agree to what he says they agreed. The Iranians might have shook their heads and dismissed the proposals as a “wish-list rather than reality” – but who is listening? Hey-ho, a deal sounds like a deal is what Mr Market heard. Sooner or later, every single trader knows a deal has to happen.The market is blithely prepared to react to any positive noise as irrefutable proof an Iran settlement, peace, joy, prosperity and an immediate solution to higher energy, jet fuel, fertiliser, pharma, etc prices is just around the corner. Mr Market knows Trump is beaten and is scrambling to find an exit – which is fine. The market doesn’t care if Trump loses face, or whatever lies he will tell about winning – his words will be utterly irrelevant. The key for markets is getting ahead of the rally, rather than being left behind it. The rally has FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) tattooed on its forehead. And it’s happening now.The market wants to forget about Iran even more than Trump does.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 6th, 2026 – Gilts and the Labour Party; the Judder Moment“Apres Moi le deluge...”The UK is not about to disappear in a puff of smoke because the Gilts Market is having a minor tantrum. But there is a serious Political Competency premium on Gilts, which will rise when the scale of Labour’s defeat becomes apparent, and the Starmer premiership is up against the wall. Trouble ahead.It’s two weeks since I last wrote about my growing concerns for the Gilt Market: “Gilts Wobble as Much as Starmer.”After the yield on the 30-year Gilt hit 5.81% y’day, perilously close to the key psychological 6% level, there is a definite sense of a Judder Moment. (This morning The Long Gilt it at 5.75%, 17 basis points higher than April 22nd!)The mood wasn’t help by bond guru Mo The Tash, (El-Erian) ex-of Pimco, yesterday tweeting his “concerns about the economic health of the nation” … A few weeks ago, El-Erian observed in the FT that Gilts have become “temperamental, overreacting to the slightest provocation.” That’s a great definition of a nervous market.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 5th, 2026 – Who will prove the eventual winners?“All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand…”The War/Not War in the Gulf rambles on – and the consequences mount. Careless markets are becoming anesthetised to the news – raising the risks of a shock destabilisation. The big question is what will follow? Who will be the winners from Trump’s misbegotten war?LINK TO PODCASTIf anyone is still watching; what’s occurring in Trump’s War on Iran? While I still scan the news wires, nothing much registers anymore.Most folk in the markets are looking away – it’s just too embarrassing to watch. Trump threatens, postures, and pouts… but who is fooled? What plan? I’ve been told he’s hoping for an internal revolution which could be a long-time coming. What matters is shipping moving through the straits – which (unless you are a Russian Oligarch) generally ain’t happening.We watch the numbers and listen to the central bankers, concluding rising inflation and rising rates remain the most likely outcome. A sustained higher price for oil is one thing, but it’s more nuanced than that – as OPEC and NATO both unravel the world is changing faster than at any time post 1945.That’s nothing to panic over. Change is opportunity. There will be winners and losers. It’s getting easier to figure out who they might be.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 5th, 2026 – Who will prove the eventual winners?“All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand…”The War/Not War in the Gulf rambles on – and the consequences mount. Careless markets are becoming anesthetised to the news – raising the risks of a shock destabilisation. The big question is what will follow? Who will be the winners from Trump’s misbegotten war?If anyone is still watching; what’s occurring in Trump’s War on Iran? While I still scan the news wires, nothing much registers anymore.Most folk in the markets are looking away – it’s just too embarrassing to watch. Trump threatens, postures, and pouts… but who is fooled? What plan? I’ve been told he’s hoping for an internal revolution which could be a long-time coming. What matters is shipping moving through the straits – which (unless you are a Russian Oligarch) generally ain’t happening.We watch the numbers and listen to the central bankers, concluding rising inflation and rising rates remain the most likely outcome. A sustained higher price for oil is one thing, but it’s more nuanced than that – as OPEC and NATO both unravel the world is changing faster than at any time post 1945.That’s nothing to panic over. Change is opportunity. There will be winners and losers. It’s getting easier to figure out who they might be.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Mayday 2026 – Stagflation... No, definitely not... but yes. “By tax adjustments we have planned to institute the promised land, and just to show we’re still sincere, we’ll sing the Red Flag once a year…”When staring down the abyss of looming stagflation, a bond market rout, and a reset on the global economy… let’s try to pretend it’s all something else. Christine Legarde would have made a great French President. Of course it’s not Stagflation... it’s just... Well? What is it?Its May Day – The Sun is shining brightly on this most Socialist Day of the year. Bandiera Rosa, La Triumphera indeed! Tonight, I shall recall my youth on the barricades of leftist student politics and put on my reddest of red ties to celebrate the working class and the nobility of the proletariat as we quaff the bubbles at the Yacht Club dinner…. I will wonder where the f*** it all went so wrong?Yesterday ECB President Christine Legarde dismissed the threat of Stagflation that hangs over the Western Economy. She played semantics and argued stagflation was something from the 1970s - like flared pants and platform soles. She suggested we face something completely different today.Really? What might that be then Chrissy?Let’s think it through – where are we today?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 30th, April 2026 – Defence: too complex, too difficult, which is why you must invest!“If you want to value the price of freedom and defence – take a look at the failed Soviet economies.”Defence is among the most difficult areas to invest. Who would become an analyst after 30-years as a Cinderella sector in the wake of ESG and peace dividends? Now, the imperative for new defence investment is crying out for private capital. That puts a clear premium on knowledge, contacts and skill to invest. Here is a solution. Regular readers of the Morning Porridge will be aware that a large part of my “day-job” focus is on the defence sector. This morning I will be part-talking my own book - I am senior advisor to the Defence Fund, Spitfire Strategic Capital.Security is the single most important function of government. Defence is a critical part of the economy in terms of multipliers and innovation. Yet the sector is widely misunderstood by politicians and under-analysed by the investment community. Politicians box-tick security spending as if it’s a choice rather than necessity. Many major funds simply don’t invest in defence – full-stop. Other’s dip cautious toes in the water, thinking a small allocation to BAE or Rheinmetall will make the war-risks to the global economy go away.Time to wake up and smell the coffee. The world has changed.Conflicts happen because states perceive weakness and see the opportunity for a win. Trump spun the dice on Venezuela and won. He doubled down seeing an easy play in Iran. Bad roll. Now the war is a Stalemate, with oil touching record levels this morning. The economic consequences will likely cost Trump the November mid-terms, leaving him lame-ducked and very, very angry – raising additional US political polarisation risks.Let me blunt about the consequences of War.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 29th, 2026 – Malta, The King, The Gulf and whatever next….“America’s words carry weight and meaning… the actions of this great nation matter even more...”Interesting times indeed. Mr Market seldom looks beyond the end of his own nose, but the World is looking increasingly fraxious these days. Big nations have ever bigger problems. Maybe smaller ones will do better? The end of strong states often results in smaller nations competing harder to thrive! Apologies for the lack of Morning Porridge the last few days. I’ve been in Malta – a mix of business and pleasure. Having withstood two incredible sieges in the last 500 years, Malta resonates with lessons from history – and history informs markets (if they are prepared to listen.) What has Malta got to do with markets you wonder? Little and everything. Today the market is trading small wave to small wave – weighing up the implications of what the solved Fed Head impasse means, disappointing OpenAI numbers mean for the change AI promises to enact across the whole economy, or wondering what the next Trump outburst might do to sentiment. They pay less attention to developing situations, like what the long-term consequences of the exit of the UAE from OPEC and the rift between the Gulf States and Saudi might ultimately mean. Watch events carefully. They highlight how the world is changing and evolving – not necessarily to the advantage of the powers in positions of apparent strength. NATO has been the cornerstone of the most successful defence and economic alliance of all time. OPEC has dominated energy markets as a Cartel threat for over 50 years. All things change... and to figure out how… You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 22nd, 2026 – Gilts Wobble as Much as Starmer…“All political lives end in failure…..”The spike in Gilt Yields says it all. Its crisis – again – in Westminster as Starmer is mired in crisis with no obvious way out. Yet again we learn a political lesson – good  political leaders are a scarce commodity. The British electorate is losing faith in politics. What will global investors think?Last Friday I was chatting to a risk officer at a US hedge fund, and he was wondering why the UK Bond market is not in more trouble? With the 10-year gilt spiking nearly 50 bp higher in just a few days - 5.14% this morning – what’s the definition of trouble?  How much worse might it get as the government teeters on the edge of a precipice and steps forward….? Just last week I was writing how Labour could raise bond funding to finance defence and other critical crises points. Now there is talk of scaling back bond sales in the face of rising “political risk”.Oh dear… things as so dire I might have to stop and have a nice strong cup of tea.

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 21st, 2026 – Robots, Competition and Total Addressable Markets.“When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, ‘Nah, what’s wrong with a horse?”Past performance is not a guide to the future. Tesla trades on a massive PE because folk believe Elon Musk will repeat his success in EVs across AI, Capacitance, Robotaxis, Autonomous Driving and Robotics. But hype, showmanship, undelivered promises and increasing competition are leaving his ventures in the literal rear-view mirror. I am indebted to my chum Mark Blyth, Professor of International Economics (and fellow Scot) at Brown University in the US for yet another pithy quote of the moment. We were discussing the current state of global play, supply chain risks, and Robotics yesterday and he made the following astute observation: “The US is doubling down on Coal. China has robots that run on batteries the US can’t make.” What more is there to say?  OUCH….Did you see the videos of Chinese Robots doing the Beijing half-marathon last weekend? (Here is a link.) Interesting. Run Robot, Run! They beat the humans hands and feet-pads down. The winning robot could have run a 1 hour 41 min Marathon. When it comes to Robotics, or other demonstrable tech like drone swarms, China is right out there, leading from the front. The signals that should be sending to the US and the West about tech development, and concerns about access to critical rare earths for the server motors, is pivotal – but we’re all too busy watching the absolute FUBAR/clusterf*ck that is the on/off/on again War against Iran.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning! 

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 20th, 2026: Day Trading vs 60-year K-Waves“He must know something, but don’t say nothing...”The markets are on a tear convinced normalisation is around the next corner. Yet they ignore the reality the Iran war has done significant damage to the global outlook – even if Tehran and Washington kiss and make up tomorrow. I don’t claim to understand the madness of markets and their ability to keep fooling themselves, but I do follow economic history and how events change outcomes.LINK TO PODCASTHere we go... another exciting week in the global financial markets.... What have we got to look forward to? Let me try to explain it … Trump is going to declare a new war on a country he had obliterated 2 ago weeks because they are doing what the US is doing– blockading the Strait of Hormuz? Is that about it? Think so. The story of the age – the War in Iran…. How much will US cabinet secretaries make this week front running Trump’s Tweets? Want to know what’s really going on in the White House? Try this article from the WSJ “Behind Trump’s Bravado, He Grapples With His Own Fears.”But, what everyone really, really wants to know is why are Markets so hot when the outlook looks so dire? Stocks have been on a 2-week role since Trump declared he’s won and cease-fired. Markets have a habit of looking unconcerned, happily buying the dip, convinced everything will be fine, right up to moment it isn’t.Back in the 1970s stocks also anticipated early upside after the October 1973 shock – expecting prices and supply would swiftly normalise after the Yom Kippur War. They did not. The 40% stock tumble came months later and lasted a year as it became clear just how deep and wide the economic consequences of higher oil and societal damage went. Inflation soared, earnings collapsed, unemployment rose, and angry politics got very messy. Prices recovered back to pre-shock levels by 1976 but tumbled again following the botched Jimmy Carter raid on Tehran in 1979 and stayed depressed for the next few years.Today stock-pickers will tell you “this time it’s different” – the most dangerous words in finance.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 17th, 2026: Sports Investments on a Wobble“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”I have no interest in golf – it’s a good walk spoilt. But the rumoured collapse of the rogue LIV Golf Tour, and the disinterest fans are showing in attending Trump’s price-gouging Football World Cup, may be hints the sports investment bubble is about to burst. If it does, it could trigger a confidence wobble across private capital. It could also spell opportunity!LINK TO PODCASTOne of the more esoteric markets I follow is Sports – watching how much teams sell for, the revenues top stars can command from monetising their brands, and how the cash flows (and property sales) from infrastructure investments like stadiums can be captured for funding. The value of teams and stars is immense. It’s a fascinating market and it’s no wonder there are a significant number of investors focused on sports investment opportunities.The rationale is to capture the cash generative power and potential returns from monetising fandom, media and advertising rights. These are huge. Hedge funds like CVC and private capital have bought up teams and events across the sporting spectrum; including Football, Formula 1, Rugby and some of the more niche spectacles including my particular passion, Sailing.   But suddenly the mood has started to turn…You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 16th, 2026 – Stock Markets and Common Sense.“There is a knack to learning to fly. It lies in learning to throw yourself at the ground and miss.”Stock markets are on a buzz. Central banks are expected to ease immediately. Joy unlimited. What war? Peace in the Middle East! Really? There are none so blind as salesmen wanting to talk a market higher.Blain’s Market Mantra No 1 states; “The market has but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants.”Global stocks are at an all-time high, sniffing the nitrous oxide of an Iran peace deal around the corner. Donald Trump is tweeting about his great relationship with China. Tech stocks are off to the races. The American aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is taking the scenic route round Africa to the Gulf - the most powerful navy on the planet doesn’t fancy messing with the Houthis in the Red Sea.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 15th April 2026 – UK Gilts.. Nothing To Worry About“Spend, Spend, Spend”Damn the torpedoes! Full steam ahead. The recent 10-year Gilt auction was a screaming success. There is plenty of demand at the right yield – 5% for 10 years! The cost of servicing debt is high, but to create growth the government needs to fix the economy by borrowing more. Global investors know that when assessing the UK’s yield premium. The UK would do better to borrow more rather than less! Time for a morning without being angry worrying about Iran, Trump and other mistakes.Instead, let’s celebrate Gilts! Yep, I’m a great fan of the UK’s government debt market because it’s the best organised, structured and managed bond market on the planet. That’s not just national pride – I have zero concerns today the UK is about to default. (If the Greens or Reform look likely to take office I reserve the right to panic – which is why I watch UK politics so closely. I oft despair.)Surprised at such positivity from a bond guy? You should not be. Yesterday the UK’s Debt Management Office launched a new 10-year Gilt which saw a nearly $150 bln order book for a £15 bln sale! Wowser! Who said no one wanted to buy Gilts? Well… er, buyers bought because at 4.9% it’s a historically very attractive yield.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 14th, 2026 – What Orban’s end means for Europe and Populism“All political lives end in failure.”Viktor Orban was a curious beast. A pragmatist and a populist who tried to play off Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Hungary is not yet solved, but it could be a transformational moment for Europe in terms of Populism and Unity.

THE BATTLE FOR HAMBLEI am delighted to announce the launch of a new book – The Battle For Hamble.It’s an in-depth look at the Hamble Gravel Quarry, an example of everything that is wrong with Broken Britain’s inept planning process, bureaucracy, and how greedy corporates arbitrage the system to their own ends. I’ve written about the quarry many times in the Morning Porridge.This morning I thought I would share a sample from the book - this is an edited couple of pages from the chapter on The Planning Bureaucracy.You can order the Book online: https://www.amazon.com/Battle-Hamble-Corporate-Illiteracy-Hampshire/dp/1036951251ThanksBill Blain

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 13th, 2026: Trump declares a Global Trade War. Good Grief!“Don’t send your sons to win wars that politicians started.”That was an interesting weekend. Trump announces a blockade that will impact the whole Global Economy – and South East Asia and China in particular. At least Europe got some good news from Hungary. More instability forecast before Trump inevitably TACO’s again. Markets are getting bored of it – which means the consequences could be even more volatile!Let the picture tell the story …. Trump lapping up the crowd’s adulation presiding over the gladiatorial Ultimate Cage-Fighting blood-fest in Miami, even as JD Vance was struggling to be rebuild American diplomatic credibility in Islamabad. Interesting times ahead.Where will markets go from the weekend just past….? This morning stocks are crashing and oil is soaring. When you are digging yourself into a hole, you need someone to tell when it’s time to stop. Trump…. well, he just keeps on digging.

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 9th, 2026: The End of Exceptionalism“I saw a death-head sticker on a Cadillac.”There is something deeply unstable underlying current markets. They don’t feel right. Something has changed. What could it be? It’s likely to be how Trump’s misjudgements in Iran and over NATO have reset expectations and accelerated the end of the American Age. The implications are huge.Interesting Global picture this morning. Not much of a ceasefire in the Gulf, but the massive de-escalation rally continues apace. It’s founded on a very unlikely premise – that the World will simple go back to where we were before Feb 28th and Trump decided to bomb Iran.You can never go back. Time moves in one direction only. Change is the rule. And this world is changing faster than we think.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 8th April 2026 – THE BATTLE FOR HAMBLE     I am delighted to announce the launch of a new book – The Battle of Hamble.On April 9th The Battle of Hamble is published by Windshift. It’s a new book by Bill Blain available on Amazon and from local bookstores. It’s a tale of greedy corporates, bad planning, economic illiteracy, and plucky Hampshire villagers fighting back. The pretty and picturesque village of Hamble-le-Rice is the UK’s leading Sailing centre. It hosts multiple yacht clubs, marine businesses, pubs and is a tourist destination. The Battle of Hamble lays out how the prosperous village on the Solent Coast of Hampshire is about to be decimated, its economy destroyed, and its people made destitute by the rapacious actions of two greedy corporates; UK Homebuilder Persimmon, and Mexican cement and waste multinational CEMEX.Persimmon has been repeatedly refused planning permission to build homes on an old airfield because the local road and infrastructure is overwhelmed. They’ve licensed CEMEX to dig a gravel quarry in the heart of the village, right next to three schools and over 1000 homes. The quarry is wholly unnecessary. It will create devastating impacts across the local economy, putting 6000 local jobs at risk, make road congestion even worse, while raising noise, nuisance, dust and particulate health risks. It is already hitting the wealth and prosperity of the village as home prices tumble and businesses plan to move out. Over 20,000 residents on the Hamble peninsula will be affected adversely. It’s social injustice on an enormous scale. At no point in the planning process were the economics of putting the local economy at risk properly examined. Locals and experts demonstrated how the Developers’ plans to “mitigate” the flooding, pollution and congestion risks of the quarry were deeply flawed and based on misinterpreted data. Yet the planning inspector assigned to hear the case didn’t even mention these in his decision to approve the quarry. Big money won – the small people lost. The book examines how and why the UK planning system has become so deeply flawed. It explains how Broken Britain is the consequence of bureaucratic processes that fail to deliver Government objectives of strong and resilient communities – and in fact delivers exactly the opposite.The books delves into how UK homebuilders act as landbanks with little incentive to build homes except when it suits their profits to do so, how gravel is anything but a strategic resource as recycled materials are now more important, and how the real value of a gravel quarry is not what is dug out of it, but what is subsequently stuffed back into it – which is likely to be landfill waste or worse. The developers won by arbitraging the planning system, using obsolete rules that define gravel as a "strategic resource” to trump the rights of the locals. Over 5700 local objections were made to the quarry, and 40 separate grounds for rejection were identified. Despite the health, wealth and prosperity risks, the planning bureaucracy determined a wholly unnecessary gravel quarry is more important than a resilient and vibrant local community! The developers won because they played their knowledge on how the underfunded and under-resourced UK planning system has been captured by expensive consultants and lawyers – who add complexity and make it prohibitively expensive for planning victims to fight. The Hamble quarry is staggering corporate injustice perpetrated on the people of Hamble. The boards of Persimmon and CEMEX will likely pocket bigger bonuses, while the village will die. The Battle For Hamble illustrates how Broken Britain is exploited by corporate greed, riven by inefficient bureaucracy which doesn’t understand basic economics, all of which make social outcomes worse. ContactBill Blain+[email protected]

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 8th, 2026: The Big Risk is No Longer Oil – Its Political Credibility.“It you attack Persia a mighty empire will fall.”Trump took the Off-Ramp. Markets are soaring, off to the races as the threats of global slowdown, recession and stagflation recede. But, for all the military power and competency on display – it’s a strategic defeat for the USA. That has massive implications for US Assets – Treasuries, Stocks, Investment, Market Confidence and Politics. It’s a double Porridge Morning – I will be out with a second Morning Porridge later this morning announcing a new Book!But first… A rant about Politics.President Trump took the Ceasefire Off-Ramp last night. Joy unconfined across markets. In the next few days oil, gas and the rest will likely flow out the Strait of Hormuz. Trump will claim the credit, but will anyone pay much attention to him? There will still be oil dislocations and there will still be uncertainty as to what follows, but this morning Markets believe it’s all over.It probably is.Trump is a creature of limited patience – as evidenced by the recent tone of his Truth Socials. He was very aware Iran had become a difficult to win war, impossible in the timeframe before the US Midterm elections. He has therefore taken the easy option. He will say he’s won – but he’s walking away from an unfinished fight. The Americans will leave some assets in the region, tell everyone loudly they are ready… We’ve seen this before.A humiliated and wounded Trump is not a positive for the US political economy – for bonds, stocks, the inward investment Trump thinks has been promised to him, or market confidence. Brand America has been tarnished. Trump punched the hornet’s nest but it’s still there. Iran may be pockmarked by piles of rubble, but the real damage is the cumulative effect on American credibility.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, April 7th 2026 – Reflections on a morning after the night before….“You can get along without money, you can lose your dividends…”We think we know the patterns – how markets resonate and repeat. But…. Do we? Every so often the Earth’s polarity shifts – but its never happened in recorded history so we don’t really know. Every so often the World’s basis changes. Make merry while we can. Enjoy what is real. The rest is just numbers. You are measured not by the digits on your bank balance, but by the numbers of your friends.It is July 1914.I have what may be the worst hangover in recorded human history. We had the very best day ever, yesterday.Easter Monday in the back garden with our very best friends. The barbies were fired up: Blain’s Slow Pork bites, Chipotle Salmon and the ultimate proof that God exists: Herb Crusted Yogurt-Marinated Lamb Chops. Hugs and kisses as we told each other how wonderful the wines were (an Alberino and a Super Tuscan by Antinori) and as evening fell we were drinking them by the case full! Inevitably the laws of demand and supply caught up. Soon there were none left and the darker recesses of the cellar were explored.It was a party to celebrate nothing in particular except friendship and the sheer exuberant joy of it. We were deep into California Reds as Artemis II rounded the Moon and headed back towards the Blue Marble. The music was 1970-80s, the love, the bonds and shared memories were genuine… and I think we might have recited the whole of the Top Gun script from memory. Southy, Darren and I solved the mysteries of the universe a couple of times.I do not “feel the need for speed” this morning. Alka-Seltzer has been consumed.It was the best of times.This morning…. Do we face the worst of times?Cold, hard reality approaches like an accelerating panzer division storming through the Ardennes. We can’t avoid the coming stramash. The £2 litre of Diesel is upon us. 39 days of Disruption have consequences. The headlines and what they imply – the end of Nato, stagflation, and the rest – are bruises erupting across our faces as the punches start to land.

Blain’s Morning Porridge, April 2nd, 2026 – Markets set to be roiled by Trump’s Iran Consequences“To go into any war without a Plan B is bad decision making. To declare war without Plan A defies logic.”Oh dear. Last night’s explanation of the War did not go well. What changed except a more unstable and fractured global economy and rising trade, supply chain and conflict risks? When markets are priced for perfection – what happens when reality intrudes. I see bad things arising.The market reaction to the Presidential Address says it all. Oil Up. Stocks Down. Was last night the moment confidence cracked?The risk is that US markets are priced for perfection in what is being revealed as a very imperfect global economy. That US markets have remained detached for this long from the rising consequential threats of destabilising recession and inflation – Stagflation –is a function of markets not prepared to believe bad things happen, or that mistakes are made. It’s not just Iran. The market doesn’t seem to haven’t figured out how the end of globalisation, the rise of isolationism, supply-chain disruptions, economic and geopolitical illiteracy, and diminished national credibility are all threats to the over-valued US markets.(On the other hand, never forget: the market can always stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!)You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 2026 – Artemis II, Space X, Data Centres and Competition.“Space will end up being one of the places that keeps making Earth better.”Hype and reality seldom mix. Elon Musk is the exception that proves the rule. The Space X IPO is set to make him the first trillionaire – but what if Competition is already eating his lunch in space-based datacentres before he’s even looked at the menu? In the Tortoise vs the Hare space race – will Jeff Bezos emerge the winner?Today’s launch of the Artemis II 4-man mission to circle the Moon is the most exciting thing to happen in Space exploration in decades.  Commercially? The financial markets are focused entirely on how superlative the Space-X IPO is set to be in terms of size, price and profit action – or at least they were…The excitement around the Artemis mission obscured the success of yesterday’s launch of a duo of geo-sync satellites built by Singapore tech firm JieYuren on a prototype Blue Origin New Glenn rocket. The launch wasn’t only a rare example of Asian/American corporate tech co-operation but could be the straw that breaks the Elon Musk Myth. If any of Musk’s legion of fanboys were paying attention, it should have reminded them that the new ex-Earth based economy will literally be a competitive “space”. (Hah!)The future never stays the same. Not only has Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin achieved multiple orbital insertions of the New Glenn rocket, and delivered a package into high orbit, but the two JieYuren satellites are prototype units for orbital data-centres – a concept Musk thought he’d pretty much patented!According to Avril Salmon, JieYuren’s spokesperson, yesterday’s joint launch is not a deliberate spoiler for Space-X – but a clear demonstration that there are multiple pathways to monetise space – not just the Musk vision. The Space-X IPO is expected to value Musk’s firm at $1.75-2 trillion on a $75 bln record float as early as June.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 31st, 2026 – Escalating the Iran War into a Water War!“I hold at your neck the gom jabbar, the high-handed enemy. It’s a needle with a drop of poison…”Who needs nukes to win an Oil War when Water is the key? The Front-Line Gulf States are highly vulnerable to a Water War on their desalination plants. Yesterday Trump threatened to strike Iran’s water infrastructure – practically inviting Tehran to strike back! But the Strait of Hormuz is not Iran’s only Ace in the current war.Yesterday Donald Trump’s threatened a major escalation of the Iran War when he threatened to “blow up” Iran’s desalination plants. That would be a war crime – simple as. No ifs. No buts. The Rome statues forbid targeting civilian infrastructure while the Fourth Geneva convention specifically prohibits attacks on drinking water facilities. There are some things that can’t be unsaid.I’m sure I’m not the only financier wondering what Trump’s latest off-the-cuff, ill-considered jaw-dropper really means. Am I going to have to sell my entire position in US Treasuries and US Stocks? The UK regulator, the FCA, and internal ethical investment parameters, are both quite clear and specific about the ethics of investing in states that promote terror or genocide against civilian populations.  Al Jazeera carried an interview with a professor of international law this morning: “Trump’s threat reinforces the climate of impunity around collective punishment in warfare” adding: “this is clearly a [threat] of collective punishment, which is prohibited under international humanitarian law. You can’t deliberately harm an entire civilian population to pressure its government.”But the real issue is not the legality of warfare, but what Trump escalated yesterday. Were Trump to destroy Iran’s decaying desalination plants – which don’t supply Tehran and account for less than 3% of Iran’s water, it would have limited immediate effect on his opponent.But it would immediately escalate the war - practically a gilt-embossed invite to the Iran regime to counterstrike Gulf States’ water infrastructure and desalination facilities in what could prove a genocidal escalation of the war. Were Iran to successfully strike Gulf water supplies because Trump threatened to strike them – it would be the equivalent of a nuclear strike in terms of effectiveness.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, March 30th, 2026 – Stage 2 of American Divergence and the Risk of Global Stagflation “Events dear boy, events…” The global economy is inevitably slowing from the deepening Hormuz oil shock. The Americans intend to press on despite the rising costs. While the global economy burns, President Trump is mulling multiple plans to achieve his version of victory. The rest of the World is waking to the reality this war is damaging their economic interests, and wondering how to mitigate the effects. Another interesting week’s play in prospect for the global financial markets…. What will happen next? Who knows….  The financial markets are never simple. You can’t simply define them in terms of the sentiment differential between optimists and the pessimists, or how deep or shallow real events will go. There are consequences and effects which make markets and consequences kind of multi-dimensional! Hah…  that’s far too sci-fi for a Monday Morning, but I’m sure you get the drift.However, there is now a new reality emerging.It’s political realisation – call it Stage 2 of the Trump effect. Stage 1 was the realisation Trump holds the rest of the World in Contempt. Stage 2 is actively countering him.Around the globe, Nations are now experiencing the negative consequences of Trump’s mis-adventurism on their economic interests. While Trump continues to hurl insults at nations that won’t support his war, there is a growing realisation its America’s actions that have triggered global slowdown and likely stagflation.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, March 27th, 2026 – The Economic Implications of the Iran War“Armchair generals talk about tactics. Soldiers worry about logistics.”The cost of Trump’s War on Iran is extraordinary - $1 bln a day plus. War Stocks are being consumed at incredible speed. A request for an additional $200 bln of DOD funding is in the works. The nature of war has changed – it could prove phenomenally destructive, expensive and ruinous to winners and losers alike. Meanwhile the economic outcomes of the war remain in the balance.When I was a very young man the global bond markets were a single column buried deep in the second section of the Financial Times…. On Monday my boss reckoned the Euromarkets could see a $ 1 bln issuance week. It happened. We were stunned. Such a huge number. Unimaginable.Now we throw $1 trillion around like its normal.One writer on financial markets to whom I pay attention to is Torsten Slok of Apollo. Earlier this week he wrote the ballooning $2 trillion US budget deficit, plus the $10 trillion of US debt to be rolled over, plus rising hyper-scaler AI infrastructure issuance, means investment grade supply of over $14 trillion dollars this year. That poses the risk of a bear squeeze on rates and credit spreads as supply overtakes demand at a time when the Fed is thinking about pre-emptive rate hikes against inflation and the Hormuz Energy shock threatens global recession.If you want to horrify yourself, open the scariest page on the internet – the US Debt Clock. Play around with the time machine function. 125% debt to GDP. Ouch.120 years ago, the UK was the dominant global power. Today, the OECD sees the UK as the most vulnerable economy to the current energy shock – hence most likely to see a bond crisis, which already threatens to metastasize through the economy. (And before you start blaming Energy Secretary Ed Milliband… the UK’s energy insecurity is a result of long-term folly, not short-term mistakes.)There could be global trouble ahead.When bond markets wobble… everything else tends to fall. A global financial crisis would play straight into Iran’s war objectives.Alongside the energy shock, the inflation risk, and worries about deeper geopolitical conflict, the war in Iran is costing the USA about $1 bln per day in war-stock munitions. According to the WSJ, over $2 bln in expensive equipment, including three F-15s (shot down by an overly keen Kuwaiti pilot), a damaged F-35, K-135 tankers and 2 very expensive radar systems taken out by Iran missiles, has been written-off. That number will rise as the pace of operations continues to run hot and planes and pilots get tired. The exhausted 9-month deployment USS Gerald R Ford has been under repair in Crete for the last few days after an internal fire left much of the crew with nowhere to sleep. (Fascinating story on the carrier’s multiple problems on Bloomberg.)You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 26th, 2026 – The Truth is Out on Social Media“Do no evil was the biggest lie ever heard in the valley.”Social media is deliberately addictive? Who knew? While markets barely reacted to yesterday’s Product-Liability award against Meta and Alphabet in California, the growing pushback against Big Tech will see valuation multiples diminish over the long run as increased regulation becomes inevitable. Perhaps it’s time to look at how Tobacco firms have evolved to understand the future value of Social Media parasites?Apologies to Morning Porridge readers, listeners and viewers for the last week of silence. I was on the slopes – catching a last Ski-trip of this season to Chamonix. 5 days of fantastic conditions and a wonderful time with great friends. I had intended to write about markets – but waking up to the view of the mountains? Poetry in motion, or bond prices? Go figure.We only get to live once – in an this increasingly fraxious, insane and unpredictable world…. who knows when or where I will ski next? On the mountains I am still in my twenties, dodgy-ticker and aching joints forgotten, addicted to my SkiTrax app…. Not the grey-haired old man who labours to write the Porridge each morning. (Sadly, I lost my notes when I left my iPad on the plane last night!! Darn!)As I step back to the desk this morning, there is no shortage of stuff to write about – I am already digging into the latest wobble in private credit, and who knows where Iran goes? (Nowhere good I expect.) A fuller analysis on where the World might be headed will follow tomorrow, but let’s start with yesterday’s Judder Moment for Google and Meta.The Tide is Changing on Social MediaWhat would happen to the global economy if we give every kid whose life has been “blighted” (in some form) by Social Media $3 mm in damages plus $30mm in punitive damages? The consequences would be phenomenal – and devastating. Who would bother seeking a job? What would it mean for global inflation? The industrialisation of the court systems with billions of cases to adjudicate?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 18th March 2026: What Matters? Energy Security and Defence“Sometimes it is necessary to lose a battle to win a war”The last two weeks have been fascinating. Iran increasingly looks a strategic blunder by Trump in the wider global hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. It increases the likelihood of instability, trade and economic disruption and the threat of kinetic conflict. Boy Scout time: Be Prepared.Apologies for the lack of Morning Porridge y’day and the slightly late comment today. Service will be slow in coming days – I’ve been floored by Man-Flu – the single most destructive force in the Universe. If I could spend the day sleeping it off I would… but the coughing, sneezing and sinusitis keeps me awake. I am turning into a Sleep Zombie, unable to snooze but glued to my screens watching the globe in turmoil…. Or something like that. (I’m wondering how I’ll cope this weekend – the last long ski weekend of the season!)At times like this remember Blain’s Market Mantra No 2 – “Things are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope.”Strip out the noise. Take a close look at what’s broken and figure out how the shards of the splintered markets will come back together again – they always do. At the macro level, we’re experiencing another energy shock. It means readjustment, recalibration, pain and tribulation, and markets finding new levels. Inflation looks to be nailed on – with massive implications for bond markets, and therefore relative pricing across all risk assets. New supply chain instabilities are inevitable as the world adjusts.Periods like this are rife with opportunities for traders and nations brave enough to take them. But the current self-inflicted global instability is happening right when leading global long-term chartists predicted it would – and I suggest you check out my chum David Murrin’s writings. He has called it perfectly thus far, predicting how today’s tensions would coincide with the 2K (120 year) cycle of hegemonic change – a period rife with conflict threats as China challenges the USA for global leadership. This is the new reality – global hegemonic change and how that plays out.My read on how the future develops is simple – two things will be critical in the coming decade: Energy Security and Effective Defence.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 16th March 2026 – Market Sentiment will Tumble on Unwinnable Wars“This is not Franklin Delano Roosevelt we’re dealing with here”Suddenly global markets are reeling – waking up to the reality of the unwinnable Iran War. What will a dramatic shift in sentiment mean for stocks, bonds and commodities as stagflation beckons, and Trump finds himself isolated? There is a growing risk of a liquidity shock to global markets. Did you feel the moment the wind changed over the weekend? The strum et drang of markets are now being driven by fears of what increasingly looks an unwinnable war in Iran. The big issues are sentiment and consequences. Markets had generally been positive, constructive and bought into expectations of US growth, earnings and the AI boost. Now they fear stagflation, rising rates, slowing demand, supply chain shocks – and a rising concern on just how much the US mid-term elections may destabilise markets further, especially if Trump is hammered in the polls!The consequences of Trump’s attack on Iran on stocks, bonds and the global economy look bleak – and the risk is a crisis triggered by liquidity flight!  Personally – I’m back to all-in on Gold. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Friday 13th March 2026 – Forget Iran, worry about Climate Whiplash and El Nino.“Out of the frying pan into the fire. Chaos begets chaos. Instability begets instability.”While global markets are fixated on the Gulf, cast a weather eye on the Eastern Pacific where a Super El Nino climate event is developing. It could lead to Climate Whiplash events in terms of flood, storms and drought, food inflation and increasing migration tensions. It never rains, but it pours – and that’s not necessarily good for the most important commodity on the planet: Water!Resilience is a marvellous word. How able are we to withstand the consequences of our multiple failings and keep smiling? Life is about making mistakes and how we recover from them – how resilient are we to the challenges and disasters that life sends our way?When I was a child, we were taught “it’s never anyone’s fault but your own” – that it’s our own responsibility to “resiliently” work our way out of crisis. Sh*t happens as they say… deal with it. Fortunately, most of the time outcomes from bad decisions are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope, which is Blain’s Market Mantra No 2.I was with clients in London y’day and all they wanted to talk about was anything except what’s going on in the Gulf. They are struggling with Trump/Iran burnout syndrome – watching and listening to every move and comment so intently they have become increasingly anaesthetised to it. Oil prices are rising, stocks are falling, bonds are flustered, and even reputable analysts are saying the best hope for the market is yet another Trump Taco – although I reckon it’s too late for that and he’s in too deep…. We will wake up Monday and maybe it will all have magically solved itself – or it will have got worse.The thing about the energy crisis that’s roiling global markets is it’s the result of the actions of the players involved in it – they can talk, they can deal, they can compromise and make a bad situation slightly better. That’s the hope. (And if you are playing the market on Iran, then you factor the mercurial Trump into the equation.)But there are other kinds of crisis where the momentum is very different…. Where talking about it isn’t going to solve it… natural disasters like an earthquake or a volcano, or long-term change like climate warming. We can feel an earthquake and watch a volcano – therefore we know they are very real and even though they are not our fault we will have to deal the consequences.But climate warming?So, yesterday I talked to my “bored of Iran” clients about climate change…. Surely not? All that ESG nonsense is behind us… Donald Trump says it’s a hoax – and he is the biggliest clever man on the planet. What if... perish the thought, what if Trump is wrong? Actually, it doesn’t matter: If the Earth is getting warmer, it’s getting warmer and we have to deal with the consequences.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning! 

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 12th, 2026 - Winning the Economic War“I flew B-52 and bombed them with the blues..”The War in Iran is a kinetic feature of the economic/hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. President Trump will lose because his Iran war is unwinnable. Iran won’t lose because it does doesn’t have to win. That’s a recipe for a forever war, and a definition of asymmetric warfare. The likely winner of a wider Economic War will be China. Energy and Supply Chains will determine the future.What a curious world we live in. I had thought about writing on the rising likelihood of a Super-El-Nino event developing in the Eastern Pacific, and how it will trigger climate shocks and agricultural mayhem – but that’s going to happen tomorrow. What’s happening today is a much more immediate concern.“War is a continuation of policy by other means,” said Carl Von Clausewitz, founder of the Prussian General Staff 200 years ago. Since then, we’ve come to understand Policy and Economics are interchangeable; war is a policy tool used to achieve economic objectives.Thus far the immediate consequences of the Iran War are clear – economic instability from an energy shock due to blocked gas and oil supply chains. Further consequences are still to emerge and set what is a wider economic conflict between the America camp versus China and its Allies in stark reality.  What follows is a rough scenario of how the Economic War plays out in coming months/years.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 10th March 2026 – Stalemate in Iran, what’s the next risk? “They make a desert and call it peace.”Pretty much as was expected Donald Trump has declared his war almost over. Its not. It has destabilised the global economy. What might be roiled in its wake? One area to watch is how a liquidity default-storm in Private Credit could infect global bond and equity markets, causing a global market crisis. (Quick comment on this morning’s top line quote. I suspect the Caledonian Picts were the Iranians of their age. In 84 AD the Caledonian chief Calgacus became the first Scotsman to be mentioned by name in the history books when he gave his opinion of Emperor Agricola’s invasion of Scotland. For the record – a later Emperor, Hadrian, gave up and built the famous wall, requiring massive Roman resources to police the Caledonian border for the next 300 years.)Let’s get on to today’s business…I am indebted to Will Nutting for the quote of the month: “The USA spent 20-years and trillions of dollars replacing the Taliban with the Taliban. Trump has replaced Ayatollah Khamenei with Ayatollah Khamenei in just 9 days and for less than a $100 billion.”Joy unconfined as Trump speaks to Putin and then declares the war just about won. A massive market rally is on the cards… The mission objectives changed yet again – it wasn’t about regime change or stopping nukes but bringing back down oil and gas prices!The truth is the attack on Iran is ending in a stalemate.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 9th, 2026 – What’s the plan? Keep bombing? What?“I love the smell of napalm in the morning…. smells like victory.”Global disruption – how likely is it to end quickly? Trump’s objective was to install a regime that will do his bidding in Iran. The appointment of Khamenei v2.0, the lack of a clear opposition, or defectors, makes a swift closure increasingly less likely. Global markets are pricing for a long, destabilising war with rising inflationary and geopolitical volatility.I’ve just spent a bluebird week skiing in the Alps – blue skies and crisp pistes. After a swiftly written Morning Porridge, on Monday I switched off the world and tightened up my boots. Skiing makes me happy and smile a lot. My definition of good skiing isn’t fast – but controlled, and (above all) stylish (in a sort of 1970s way!) To cap a fantastic week Scotland beat France in the Six Nations, and our hosts, Italy beat England! Yay!Looks like I missed an interesting week in markets….Long coach transfers to airports and even longer passport queues are great places to catch up on podcasts and read market notes. As I read the reports, and Secretary of War Hegseth promising more to come, I could not but think about Col Kilgore of the US cavalry – the character played by Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 1st March 2026 – AI, Politics and Populism, Luddites and Social Revolution“You say you want a revolution, well, you know we all wanna change the world..”As the US and Israel attack Iran, confirming the Fire Horse threat of escalating conflict risks, do we also face a second social threat from AI triggering widespread social and wealth-inequality protests? Does 2026 risk becoming a double whammy hit on market sentiment and confidence?I am cheating this morning. This morning’s Porridge was written on Saturday – before I jumped on a plane for a week on Sunday morning to go skiing in Italy. As War has broken out in the Middle East I’ll have the full laptop suite with me in case it gets hairier than Trump expects… First thing to note is Bitcoin crashed on higher risk.I warned a few weeks ago how “Fire Horse Years” (according to the Chinese Zodiac) can be volatile and explosive, this one occurring in conjunction with a 2K (2 Kondratieff Cycle) period of hegemonic challenge – and the elevated likelihood of associated conflict as the USA and China square off. The rising tide of conflict in the Middle East highlights the risks.But, what if we are also going through an acute societal shift, which could trigger social unrest?There is an apocryphal story set in the near future where a starship built around a super-AI is crewed by three humans and a dog. The ship traverses the vastness of the galaxy to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to go boldly where no dog has gone before. (No split infinitives in the Morning Porridge!)The humans are there to feed and exercise the dog.How is AI going to change the world? Do we face civilisational erasure as a result of its’ quadratically expanding god-like power? Will we be replaced or become pods in some Matrix like future. Or will AI’s phenomenal access to information and our intellect lead to a fulfilling partnership between Man and Machine.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Fed 25th, 2026: What is the US Yield Curve Really Telling Us?“When there is a lack of honour in government, the morals of the whole people are poisoned.”Does the steepness of the US yield curve tell us the US Economy is about to boom, or inflation is about to sink the Treasury markets? To figure out which, you need to interrogate the witnesses and look at what the evidence is telling us.My ambition is to keep learning new stuff. Like this morning’s quote – from Herbert Hoover.One of the things I enjoy most is sharing my experience of how markets work in practice. Aside from my careless Desmond (a Tutu) in Economics, my only qualifications to do so are gleaned from surviving 40 years in financial markets. My great delight is my honorary professorship at the Edinburgh Business School (which I suspect was because they felt I deserved a B+ for effort), but I have few academic chops as a great thinker or as a theoretical economist.However, I do think markets, economics, and politics make a curious kind of sense, and if you dig deep enough…. it’s even possible to explain them and figure them out!Yesterday I had the great pleasure to give a guest lecture on the bond markets to a classroom of American PhD Students at Brown University in New England (via Zoom). They are taking a class on the International Political Economy of Global Finance. It’s a fascinating course, run by my great chum, fellow-Scot, and genuine academic thinker, Professor Mark Blyth.Mark is a guy who takes a deep interest in how complex things work. He picks them apart and asks difficult questions like why? He’s now applying that intellectual curiosity to take students deep into the foundations, architecture and plumbing of international finance. I’ve looked at the syllabus and if I had the time, I’d take the course myself – because it’s good to see ourselves as other see us, and wonder if there are better ways to think about the world, and how to action it.The fact I got asked a lash of questions following my lecture was an added bonus.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 24th, 2026: Iran could be the flashpoint for market dislocation“Do not defy the fates and bring shame on Rome.”Markets aren’t much concerned about Iran. US Military might is expected to prevail, cowing the Ayatollahs into acceptance of Trump’s maximalist demands. What could possibly go wrong? Trump is no student of history, and may not understand the gamut of military, logistical and geopolitical risks aligned against him.Does the markets’ fixation on AI mean they are missing what might be main event? In 53 BC Marcus Licinius Crassus, the senior member of the Roman Triumvirate (and richest man in Rome) was nervous of Caesar’s rising popularity from his military successes in Gaul. Crassus led the 7 legions of the Eastern Army into the desert to restore and enhance his own military lustre – incidentally a move made without the approval of the Senate and People of Rome (“SPQR”).  His army was annihilated by Persian heavy cavalry and horse archers at the Battle of Carrhae. Glancing through the stock market commentaries this morning the noise is all about the end of the first soft “industrial” age; the collapse in software stocks – dinosaurs replaced by evolved AI. Investors are wondering how much more damage AI will inflict upon businesses. Every firm that employs folk to actually think is at risk. How the global economy evolves as a result of AI will have profound market implications tomorrow – but today the imminent threat might be elsewhere. Markets are often blind. Analysts are pitching investment strategies bar-belling the soft side of the economy in terms of hyperscalers and industrials for the hard stuff, while shorting the soft middle. Next up in the tumbril for the AI guillotine will be banks and investment managers, because AI is going to do it all so much better. Quite who the AI Revolution is going to leave in a job, earning enough money to actually consume anything in this new economy, is…. unclear.Maybe put that stuff aside for a moment.  Today? Buy missile producers, buy tank makers, buy weapons. We might be about to get a thumping great lesson in logistical facts, economic reality, and geopolitical shifts. Let me explain in a word: Iran.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 23rd, 2026 – Private Credit and Treasury Wobbles... Relax….“Apart from that Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the show?”Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!An interesting week’s play in prospect for global markets this Monday morning. There was a distinct judder moment on Friday after the US Supreme Court declared Trump’s emergency tariffs were unconstitutional. He didn’t react well. The markets shrugged and wondered… Where do we go from here?I suspect the driving theme for the week with be elevated fears on bonds and credit markets, and how swiftly risks and concerns are jumping the gap to cross-contaminate between bond and equity markets.How will markets react to Trump’s tariff SNAFU? Weren’t tariffs going to pay off the USA’s $38 trillion debt? (No – they were not!)How will markets react to the wobble-signs from the private credit markets as Blue Owl acts to control retail redemptions on certain funds – while sharks, in the guise of SABA (Boas Weinstein) get ready to pounce with a 35% discount offer to NAV. Could private credit trigger a credit/liquidity crunch?The fact lending to software companies (hammered by AI threats) is at the core of the Blue Owl lending concerns highlights the circularity of markets and that credit lending is as much about risk as equities!How will these forces inter-relate with all market noise around geopolitics, AI, liquidity, politics, Iran and the growing sense of instability that seems to pervade everything? Cheer up – as I’ll scribble at the end of this Porridge, Life is Still Good. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Jan 20th, 2026: Corruption and Justice – Action Required.“America may be blind, but the world will see who is involved and complicit.”The difference between successful democratic economies and autocracy is that the rule of law works better. Autocracies trend towards corruption and inefficiency. Insider dealing and corruption is a fact of the financial markets – punishing it is a matter of the enforcement of justice and the willingness to do so. Europe is acting over Epstein. What’s happening in the USA?  Friday is rant day. I can say what has to be said. Over the weekend I’ll be digging into the implications of Blue Owl gating its Alternative funds, and if that’s the Bear Stearns Moment warning of ructions ahead for Private Credit markets.Investment is an exceptionally complex business. There are multiple considerations in terms of the risk/reward profile of any deal. The probabilities of success versus the likelihood of misadventure must be checked and reconciled against contracts, credit and data. Analysts dissect company accounts, statements and information on the parties to the trade. Lawyers have become MVPs (most valuable players) because successful investments are built upon a framework of law and order. While a gentleman’s word may be worth something in terms of the credibility to open doors, and trust is fundamental in any deal discussions, without the backing of sound contracts, strong legal systems, and the enforcement of justice – you are just gambling versus human avarice. The strength of the judicial system is a critical support and consideration in any deal.History shows the economies of nations with strong and fair judicial systems tend to perform more strongly than autocratic states, where the old adage absolute power corrupts absolutely oft proves the case, leading to widespread corruption and underperformance across the whole economy.Yesterday was a WTF day in the UK. It’s not every day a Prince of the Blood is hauled off thru Traitor’s Gate.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 19th, 2026 – Tariffs hoist Trump on his own Petard“And I would have gotten away with it, if it wasn’t for these pesky kids...”Sometimes you have to laugh. Tariffs have been the cornerstone of Trump’s economic miracle, allowing him to deflect, discombobulate and distract voters from economic truths. Now the NY Fed says tariffs are a consumption tax – even MAGA voters will be worried as the Mid-Terms approach.I reckon a fair number of Porridge Readers will remember Scooby-Do….Donald Trump is the evil financial-economic genius planning the ultimate political heist. His cunning plan to ensure a MAGA landslide in the Mid-Terms, just 8 months away, was utterly brilliant. Slap tariffs on everything and tell the American the people the economy was booming because of them. Keep telling them that till they believed it. The bigger the lie, the better it sounds. Brag about big foreign investments. Boast about new factories – as yet unbuilt. I particularly admired the brazen promise to increase US defence spending by 50% on the back of the unlimited bounty off tariff income.Then wait. And in March, just as the political campaign season kicks into high gear, he’s going to tell the people tariffs have been so successful and so biggly restored global respect for the USA that he’s able to cancel them. By removing what is a massive consumption tax on the US economy he will generate a deflationary spike and an economic boom that will peak around election day. Foreign leaders will praise his munificence.As I said – genius of the highest order… If it wasn’t for the pesky kids at the New York Fed…You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 18th, 2026 – Defence Spending, Resilience and Growth“To save the village it was necessary to destroy it.”The Russians have captured the FT, apparently! The headline that Gilts are about to crash because the Government will borrow more to increase defence spending is Pravda 101. The reality is Gilts should rally on increasing the strategic deterrence that defence spending will create.If you wish for peace, be prepared for war. Strategic Deterrence is the most valuable form of infrastructure a nation can possess.There is a worrying story in the FT this morning – “Gilt investors warn about “ruse” to fund higher UK defence spending.” It goes on to describe a potential backlash and “self-defeating” rise in borrowing costs if the Government tries to spend more on defence by issuing more debt. I had to check the byline – has the Pink-Un been bought by one of Putin’s oligarchs?The story caught my interest for a number of reasons. I guess the journalists needed a story to counter UK Premier Sir Keir Starmer saying something sensible. Yesterday, he said he’s going to move faster to increase defence spending – wow, I’ve always believed Starmer means well, so it’s great to see him do something right. (But, as a chum said last night; give him a few months to fret about how to increase defence spending to 3% by 2029 without upsetting the bond market and Labour’s left-wing, and spending might even decline!)The FT article cites a “leading investor” saying “I’m not the sure the bond market would like it.” Another said the market would be “sceptical about a carve-out”. Beats me how these guys are sitting in senior investment management roles – surely, they realise their investments in Gilts and the UK are likely to be made more secure by spending that discourages the Russians (or whomever else) attacking us? Perhaps not….  (I’ll come back to that below.)A few weeks ago, one of my chums in the Labour Party let slip the Government’s 10-year Defence Investment Plan is being delayed in the hope of peace in Ukraine. The thinking is simple; if Trump can force a “ceasefire”, then the immediate need for rearmament diminishes, putting less pressure on Treasury to find money immediately for guns, and giving Starmer some funds to placate the left-wingers clamouring for more on the butter of welfare spending!One of the most basic duties of any state is defence. It’s a complex two-part problem that goes beyond the guns or butter paradox:The first is paying for defence – which the UK is currently failing. Not because we don’t spend enough, but because we spend it badly!The second issue is making sure the nation is prepared to defend itself by being willing to fight. That’s more nuanced. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 17th, 2026: Munich, AI and The Year of the Fire Horse.“We must build our hard power, for that is the currency of the age.”The future will be set not just by the defence and deterrence discussions last weekend in Munich, but by how global markets react to competition. New Chinese AI drops from DeepSeek and Qwen may challenge US hyperscalers and challenge expectations of global demand and markets.  Happy Chinese Lunar New Year. Good luck and good fortune to all readers of the Porridge in The Year of the Fire Horse.History tells us things can get fruity in Fire Horse years – which occur every 60 years on the Chinese Zodiac. That’s a significant measure of time: a single 60-year Kondratieff long-term economic cycle encompasses the incredible economic change, tech evolution and growth we’ve seen since the 1960s. Periods of hegemonic challenge (which raise substantial conflict risks) typically occur every 100-120 years – the 2K cycle - which is pretty much where the timeline also is today as the USA and China butt against each other.China has become the most significant challenge to the USA’s era as the undisputed global hegemon and economic superpower. It happens at a time of increased political instability as Western economies struggle with inequalities and the rise of populism (including the challenges of Donald Trump’s second presidency), the consequence of underinvestment in deterrence, but also at a time of acute social change and external challenges (climate change, migration, et al), and all during a time when competition in global markets is reaching fever pitch.Hegemonic change doesn’t have to happen in terms of war and conflict but also occurs when previously dominant powers see their economic position challenged, and their industrial/business base surpassed. Tired economies define most end of empire scenarios – and explains why Great Britain gradually faded away after the First World War.Put all these random bits together; political ineffectiveness and polarisation, rising social grievances and tension arounds jobs, housing, and inequality (of income, opportunity and justice),  and the dramatic competitive technology and economic shifts (which may increase social division by dispensing with jobs) that are occurring. Then sprinkle the risks of war on top of that… and it’s a not a pretty world we live in.Of course, it hasn’t helped that Trump’s vision for America has necessarily called for a reduction in the costs of its global responsibilities – hence the bust-up with Europe. It could have been done better and without the angst.What’s done is done…  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Very Late Morning Porridge Feb 16th 2026 – Sliding, Jambos and Rugby, Sports that matter“He’s kicked that one so high it’s come down with a touch of frost on it..”The world may be going to hell in a handbasket, and tomorrow is the start of the Year of the Fire-Horse (the most volatile of the 60-year Chinese zodiac cycle) but what a fantastic weekend of sports we just had. It’s all positive stuff… Let’s enjoy it while we can.Apologies for the very late Morning Porridge this morning after a very early flight back from Edinburgh. Tomorrow there will be a full breakdown on the market implications of ‘who-said-what-but-meant-that” at the Munich Security Conference and what’s afoot in AI stocks, but this morning… let’s enjoy the good things in life and talk about sports, their influence and importance, whether it be in Olympic gold in Skeleton, Football, or Scotland’s magnificent win on Saturday in the 6 Nations Rugby at Murrayfield.Sports matter – not just in terms of the potential opportunities to monetise sporting success (of which there are many), but also in terms of concepts such as soft power and belief, and how that can influence sentiment and growth. After Saturday’s win I was a one-man economic boom-time in Edinburgh’s hostelries on Saturday. Might oak-trees stem from little acorns, and small sporting successes can make small nations mightier yet.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 11th, 2026 – The Munich Conference and Global Threats “What do you worry about?” … “Events, dear boy, events.”There are times when the course of history takes on a momentum of its own, most often in periods of conflict around hegemonic change – as exist today. This year’s Munich Security Conference will address stressed and fractured global alliances – while markets should be figuring out how conflict risks have risen and potential outcomes worsened. Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference (which opens later this week) is a former German Ambassador to the USA. He doesn’t pull any punches in its 2026 report; “Under Destruction”. (Use the link to read it – it’s blunt, to-the-point and highly informative.)  The report defines how “wrecking-ball politics” have favoured the destruction of current institutions and alliances, and trampled opportunities for reform. It pulls no punches blaming Donald Trump’s new America for the destabilisation of long-term alliances. In many ways it’s a response to JD Vance’s arrogance at last year’s conference where he slammed Europe as anti-democratic while failing to call out Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.  In the space of just over a year the World has utterly changed. Confidence in NATO, the transatlantic economy, and global order have been overturned. Apologists for Trump – and there will be plenty of wealthy American businessmen, financiers and technologists in attendance who have nailed their colours to his mast – will say Trump has achieved great things by forcing Europe to take responsibility for its own defence, and rumours of the death of the alliance are over exaggerated.They are not.These apologists have less to say about the long-term consequences for the global economy and markets from Trump’s disregard for the rules of law, his threats to allies, his autocratic bent and his appeasement of Putin. In 12 months, he has destroyed (I was going to write undermined but why pull punches) the previous faith and confidence Europe had in America.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 10th, 2026 – Bond Market Alarm Bells Sounding“Feche le vache..”Did someone say Century Bond? What’s not to like about the bond market? Rates are going to fall! Everyone wants to buy credit (at historically tight spreads) and the biggest most successful firms on the planet are paying 70 cents over Treasuries for your money! What could possibly go wrong? 100-year Sterling bonds from Google? Wow. That’s…. interesting. (Ding, Ding, Ding…. Bond market alarms going off very loudly in my head.)What do the buyers of that Century bond know that we don’t? There are so many reasons not to buy a corporate Century bond – but clearly there is demand for them. I’ll come back to 100-year bonds below, but the succession of massive public (and private) AI Hyperscale debt deals to fund the datacentre build out has had my bond spidey-senses on edge for some time now.Google’s century bonds y’day sent them into overdrive.The sheer volume of debt being raised for AI is off the historical scale. There are estimates of $700-900 bln of funding to be raised by the Hyperscalers this year. Google raised $20 bln of its announced $185 bln 2026 funding ask yesterday. Oracle attracted a $130 bln order book for a recent $25 bln deal – despite many market analysts fearful of its weak financials, over-stretched debt profile, and reliance on OpenAI being able to pay the leases on its compute. Amazon and Microsoft are in the market funding as much as they can.Some say $3 trillion will be raised over 5 years. It’s extraordinary, but apparently, it’s not a problem because these are some of America’s largest and most successful companies – what can possibly go wrong? (Why did Enron, WorldCom, WaMu and the big 3 Autos just flash through my memory?)Recently I’ve written about the potential of a Corporate Bond Burp – not necessarily a complete credit meltdown, but a market that’s got ahead of itself that’s about to suffer chronic indigestion. The “Burp” is the warning it’s all about to happen – that the underlying assumptions behind a trade or a wider rally were mis-founded.Reasons for suspecting a Bond-Burp is imminent include the circularity arguments around AI firms funding and backing each other through datacentre leases and compute, the historically tight credit spreads in the corporate markets, and multiple questions about what is supporting what in the complex debt ecosystem.Should I be worried?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Part 2 Feb 9th, 2026 – The Conflabulation that is Bitcoin finally dies in a pool of disinterest.“Rat Poison Squared”Well, it was interesting while it lasted. Bitcoin has given me plenty to write about these last 15 years. Up, down, up, down, and shake it all about. This tumble feels different. No one is trying to seriously defend it. The walls are down and Bitcoin may be about to vanish in a puff of logic… or will it? Once you have them, Cockroaches are extremely difficult to exterminate.It’s a special day indeed… 2 Morning Porridges. That’s unusual. I’ve been meaning to write about the collapsing Bitcoin conflabulation for days, but important stuff has been happening.History is littered with sudden collapses. Seemingly invulnerable fortresses suddenly fall to a gaggle of rag-tag guerillas, empires tumble overnight, and dictators are omnipotent one moment and dead in a ditch the next. It might be the same for Bitcoin. It feels like the wind has completely gone from its sails.“So apart from that Cathy, how’s your wallet?”Just over a year ago… it felt very different. November 4th, 2024, was a bad day for my personal wealth. Having faith in America, I’d convinced myself Kamela Harris could win the US presidency – despite her obvious limitations. I was in Washington, and went into the election with large, levered shorts on Tesla and Bitcoin, expecting both to tumble when Trump lost. I was wrong and both rallied spectacularly. My positions were both wiped out. Trump had promised us the future was Crypto and he would make it so…I knew the risk and shrugged. You win some, you lose some. But…. what goes around, comes around.This morning the world has already forgotten its shocked bewilderment that Trump posted Obama as a monkey on Truth-Social last week. Someone else will take the blame. There will be little in the way of a reckoning or punishment. He has turned insult and grift into an art form. And he cares little for crypto – made him rich but who cares? Last week we were reading about Abu Dhabi quietly buying 49% of Trump’s crypto venture, and we shrugged. Trump ain’t daft – he’s spread the risks of his efforts to cryptonise the US economy to his own personal benefit.Today, the world feels distinctly meh about BTC.  I feel a bit like a Canadian seal-clubber as I write about Bitcoin … these sad-eyed millennials and GenZs wondering why they aren’t rich… but Trump is? I almost feel sorry for them as I swing the club, telling them; “you’ve naebody to blame but yerself.” Thwack!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Part 1 Feb 9th, 2026 – Fire Horses, UK Bond Risk, Conflict Risk, and Emperor’s New Clothes Risk!“Knuckles to Buckles”The threat board is looking crowded this morning. From UK political risk, escalating conflict risks, a possible credit burp and what happens next in unsustainable narratives – who knows what further No-See-Ums lurk in the background. Yet markets party on. What can possibly go wrong…..?This is Part One of the Morning Porridge – there will be a later mid-morning comment on Bitcoin to follow (if I get time to finish it.)You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 5th, 2026 – Navigating the stormy seas of Tech“The worst thing you can do is nothing.”Where are the Tech markets and AI heading? Are we due a meltdown or melt-up? Will the bubble bust, or do the current ructions reflect growing uncertainty on which directions upside lies? There is plenty to consider when trying to predict where AI and Tech eventually go.What we do know is AI will change the world, and technology is constantly evolving. To play markets, we need to take a view. Doing nothing is not an option.It’s been a funny old market in tech these last few days – as volatile as broken glass is sharp, as unpredictable as Brownian Motion in a teacup. Strip away the noise and fear around the potential quietus for Oracle on its unsustainable debt burden, how few chips Nvidia might now sell, how much infrastructure OpenAI may never build, or how far down the wrong roads Microsoft has travelled, or how Google will own us all, and try figure out exactly how much the AI revolution will change the world.Because it will.There are broadly three things to think about:

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 4th, 2026 – Is Epstein just the tip of the Iceberg?“Chaos is a smokescreen for corruption.”We will likely never know the full truth about Epstein. It’s not a sex scandal – it’s a sordid tale of corruption, insider dealing, greed and arrogance dug deep into the highest echelons of business and society. It involves far more figures than the few who have been exposed. Some corruption is hidden. Increasingly much is in plain sight.There are dark secrets about our society we would rather keep quiet, pretending they don’t happen. But the truth has a habit of seeping out... a trickle of insinuations can swiftly become a bombshell of facts.There is just such a ticking bomb beneath the façade of the Anglo-Saxon Economy fizzling away. It threatens to crack-open swathes of business, finance and politics. Denizens of the “blob”, the “swamp”, the “establishment”, or whatever entitled group of powerful folk who think they run the country are called, they will be nervous – who will be exposed next?Nobody has ever been able, or more correctly, willing to explain just how Jeffrey Epstein became so wealthy, so well-connected, so powerful, but such a threat he was removed from the board…. with extreme prejudice when the cameras trained on his cell “failed”.The revelations from the latest batch of the Epstein files suggest a much deeper scandal is in prospect. It’s no longer just a sordid tale of a perverted paedophile, abused women, and the reputational threat to those who partook of the pleasures he provided on his Island. Now it’s about a network that smells of financial corruption, insider dealing, greed and raw power.And that is going to make electorates very angry and shake their confidence in the system.It’s increasingly clear how Epstein’s web leveraged power, knowledge, and wealth from the contacts and friendships he cultivated and corrupted. The sex and abuse were just elements; tools he used to achieve his goals and to obtain valuable information.Epstein’s “business” was based in exploiting the culture of arrogance, entitlement, and the expectation they will always get away with it, that has always existed at the top end of society since we climbed down from the trees. He nurtured his portfolio of the great and the good to garner the information, access and insider status that informed and enabled his “investment” successes.