All Episodes
The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics — 218 episodes
AI earnings and equities, gauging Bessent’s success and Iran’s economic squeeze
The great global bond sell-off – causes, consequences and what comes next
A polarised US rate debate, China's lost reform and the £25bn question
Is a September Fed hike off the table? The yen rescue. EM risks.
Kevin Warsh's failure to communicate. Plus: Europe's wildfires
Trade wars, shooting wars and the AI investment boom
The next oil shock? And China's economy after the GDP miss
Jennifer McKeown on where next for the advanced economies
From boom to bust: the AI equity rally in its final phase
AI's macro boost, a hawkish Fed and Burnham's balancing act
Tough economic choices in a fragile peace
Fed preview: The case for raising rates | Oil's turning point?
Fed hikes, inflation risks and AI stocks
A deal at last? What a Hormuz reopening would mean for oil and inflation
This bond market wobble won't be the last
UK Labour party meltdown, gilt yields and why the bond market always wins
The Trump-Xi meeting and the limits of a reset | Germany’s overdone pessimism
A tough macro backdrop gets tougher. Will equities care?
What if the energy shock gets worse? And what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed?
Global imbalances, all over again | Gulf economies in crisis
A fragile ceasefire: What next for economies and markets?
AI and economies: from capex boom to productivity payoff
Global Economic Outlook: Forecasting in the fog of war
Policy in a time of conflict: Central banks and the growth-inflation trade-off
Oil, war and economies – Three scenarios for the Middle East conflict
Middle East conflict, oil prices and that US jobs drop
Special Episode: Conflict in the Middle East – The key macro and market questions
Can China finally fix its economic model?
Supreme Court special: What the Trump tariffs ruling means for macro and markets
Brown on the US outlook, Gregory on UK politics
Tech sell-off, AI winners and losers, and reasons to be optimistic about productivity
Inflation nation – Japan’s turning point and a critical election
Special Episode: What Kevin Warsh would mean for the Fed
A new world order? | Why Russia’s economy won’t stop the war
Neil Shearing on China’s trillion dollar surplus; Leah Fahy on China's AI race
Maduro’s capture | Is the AI productivity boom here?
Special: Global CRE outlook – Where to find returns in a uniquely weak recovery
Dodgy data, all flavour of rate move and a bubble that will keep inflating (for now)
Special episode: The World in 2026 – Key drivers, key risks in global macro
Can Europe compete in a fractured world?
UK Budget: The Missing Growth Story | China: The Investment Mystery
More AI bubble fears, the UK Budget countdown and Saudi Arabia’s global pivot
Is AI killing jobs, and when does the growth payoff arrive?
The Rachel Reeves tax threat, the Supreme Court tariffs test and the fate of the AI boom
Driving in fog, standing on ice: The Fed and the fragile trade truce
Trump and Xi, CPI and the Fed, oil and sanctions
US–China trade war – What’s driving the latest escalation
The AI frenzy, Japan’s market shock and France’s political storm
Global Outlook: US leads, Europe lags | China’s equities boom
Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue
US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank shifts
US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs geopolitics
US jobs hit, France’s budget gridlock and China's world order optics
Neil Shearing on The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy
A Chinese consumption breakthrough? | The global jobs slowdown
China's struggles, Bessent's overreach, Wall Street's climb and India's tariffs hit
BoE division, data confusion, looming US CPI | Taking Trump’s manufacturing pledges to task
That big payrolls miss and the US outlook plus AI's energy demands
How the global economy is fracturing under Trump
What if Trump fires Powell? | Global inflation signals and the policy outlook
'Tariff Man' returns, US-China diverging price risks – and is AI triggering a jobs bloodbath?
Tariffs deadline looms, Trump’s inflammatory tax bill and why deglobalisation isn't nigh
The global economy's fragile underpinnings plus BYD, DeepSeek and China's productivity problems
Special: A fragile peace takes hold – what next for economies and energy markets?
Risk vs uncertainty in the Middle East, dollar in focus, and new Asia market coverage
Israel-Iran strikes, the Fed’s next steps, US-China trade talks and more
Are tariffs starting to bite? Plus, the economics of rising defence spending
Tariffs on! Tariffs off! Tariffs on! The latest episode in the trade war saga plus data to track the turmoil
Trump’s EU tariff threat, jittery bond markets, UK macro update, gold’s next steps and more
Back from the brink – How the global outlook has brightened (and what can still go wrong)
US-China trade talks preview, what to make of that US-UK "deal", and the future of Europe
There's a trade war on – why aren't the hard data showing it?
Reports of King Dollar’s death – exaggerated or inevitable?
The pause is on! What to expect from the global economy during and after Trump's tariffs pause
It's a US-China trade war, after all
Special: Trump's reciprocal tariffs, China strikes back and a hellish week for markets
A "whiff of stagflation", the state of US exceptionalism, and China's weak start to 2025
The Mar-a-Lago myth, another crisis in Turkey and Rachel Reeves' under pressure
What to make of US recession fears, a Fed preview, our long-term global macro outlook and more
Tariffs special: The macro implications of Trump's latest trade actions
In the fog of policy uncertainty, China’s National People's Congress, India in Trumpland and more
Was that the week that changed the world?
Why markets rallied on reciprocal tariffs; Germans to vote in the shadow of Trump, Xi and Putin
Lessons from a drama-filled week in Trumpland, China upends the EM development model and more
Special: Trump tariffs unleashed - does a global trade war follow?
Trump vs the Fed, the real Stargate story and why oil prices look even shakier
An ‘American Carnage’ sequel? Another big year for US stocks, Keir Starmer's AI dreams and more
Jobs blowout deepens bond market gloom, Rachel Reeves' sticky fiscal wicket, Trump and the dollar and more
The Fed changes tack, why no second Plaza Accord and why markets punished Brazil
Central bank policy pains, China’s pivot, the market bubble in 2025, geopolitics vs macro and more
The World in 2025 – The macro themes that will shape next year
More tariff threats, China and 'Japanification', payrolls preview, India and Trump and more
Special Episode: What to make of Trump's tariff warning
Trying to avoid talking Trump and what an end to the Ukraine war could look like
The economic fallout from tariffs and deportations and what follows the 'Trump bump'
Trump up-ends the macro narrative and the Chinese stimulus that wasn’t
Special Episode: The US election aftermath and Trump's second coming
What this election means for macro and markets and the aftermath of the UK Budget
Special Episode: UK Budget – Macro impact, market reaction
Bond market jitters, UK Budget preview, Trudeau’s immigration U-turn and more
What Trump gets wrong on tariffs, a super-sized ECB rate cut, EV sales vs oil demand and more
Another China stimulus let-down, the Fed and ECB’s next steps, India’s commodities demand and more
Larry Adam and Neil Shearing on the global macro/markets outlook
Special: Iran's missile strike on Israel and oil market implications
China’s stimulus blizzard, the ECB’s quandary, Kamala Harris' housing plan and more
As the Fed gets cutting, where will rates settle?
Property Special: Retail’s return from the dead and what to expect from its recovery
25 or 50? What the Fed will do, how markets could react, and our new recession indicators
What that payrolls report means for the Fed, the ECB's balancing act, recession risks and more
August payrolls preview, China's confused policy moves, key risks to watch and more
What Powell said at Jackson Hole, China-India ties in a fractured world and more
After the summer growth scare – The state of the global economy
Has the global markets storm blown over?
Payrolls fallout – The spectre of US recession haunts the stock market
What to watch in a jam-packed week of market events
Special episode: Who's going to lead the global CRE recovery?
The global IT outage, China’s growth and reform struggles, an update on the inflation battle and more
'More good data' for the Fed, more election uncertainty and why the ECB won't rush a follow-up
UK Election Special Briefing – What will Labour do to fix the economy?
Biden’s debate stumble and the macro/market context, UK election preview, shipping rates resurgent and more
Bond markets in election season, the stock market bubble, India economic outlook and more
French turmoil, the Fed and BoE in the election cycle, Europe’s EVs tariffs and more
Spotlight 2024: US outperformance and the future of global macro and markets leadership
ECB Special: A key moment in the post-pandemic monetary cycle
Election fever, US/euro-zone inflation previews, AI and productivity and more
Biden’s latest China salvo, the stock market bubble revisited, UK CPI preview and more
What’s missing from the China overcapacity row, that UK GDP data and an exclusive inflation briefing
Payrolls relief, oil and the US election, the RBA’s next move and more
That Fed rate hike noise, China trip notes and EM FX challenges
Overcooked inflation fears, the end of the excess savings debate and a global markets briefing
Janet Yellen's Beijing trip and the Chinese overcapacity threat
Emerging markets special: An EM risk early warning system and EMs and the green transition
Baltimore bridge collapse, our Global Economic Outlook, Trump vs Canada and Mexico and more
What’s gone wrong with the German economy?
Fed week! The BoJ’s big moment, TikTok and fracturing, Putin’s war economy and more
The coming collapse of Chinese construction and Fed rate cuts vs the stock bubble
The coming clash over Chinese oversupply, the UK budget vs the bond market, the carbon price outlook and more
Trump trade wars, stock market bubbles, Japan's market comeback and the world in 2050
How to think about recessions, fiscal shackles, financial instability risks and more
Inflation rebound risk, bank real estate exposure, Trump trade wars and dollar and EM outlooks
A bumper US jobs report, central banks and labour markets and that wave of US CRE loans
Fed week! China's stimulus blizzard, Houthi inflation risk and more
Inflation's "last mile", an ECB preview, China data discrepancies, and maximum bullish on US stocks
Macro in a more dangerous world, UK CPI preview, bond vigilantes, and the US energy export surge
2024’s uncertain start, US CPI preview, Taiwan's flashpoint election and more
The Fed gifts the bond market, the EM growth outlook and that COP28 agreement
What could go wrong in 2024, the BoE on Table Mountain and the US housing outlook
Where to spot fiscal risks and how to think about US-China economic competition
2024: Weaker growth, cooler inflation, lower rates
Special episode – Argentina's election: Shock result...shock therapy?
Flavours of recession, Xi vs Biden vs Trump, Jeremy Hunt’s big dilemma
Calls for 2024, deglobalised pandas, Saudi’s shifting allegiances
What the global data say, what the central banks said, and Italy’s debt balloon
Fed week, the US economic outlook and financial markets at war
5% Treasury yields, geopolitics vs the Fed, China’s dollar dilemma, an AI stock bubble and more
Special episode: AI and the global economic order
Israel-Gaza and heightened geo-economic risk and what to expect in the post-pandemic rates era
How much more pain for bond markets?
The global economic outlook, or why "higher for longer" won't last
Special Episode: Is AI coming for our jobs?
AI’s productivity boom, central bank rhetoric vs reality, recession risk and more
After rate hikes, US economy anomaly, EU vs Chinese EVs and more
Huawei’s chip surprise, the energy price spike, Nvidia in India, UK vs Germany
September's rate decisions, China's stepped up stimulus, and the AI race
Signs of trouble, equities off the boil, those Nvidia earnings and AI’s promise
The bond market disconnect, the fiscal policy outlook and an exclusive China briefing
Chinese deflation, US July CPI and commodities markets feel the pinch
Disinflation's mystery, China's structural slowdown and Argentina's risky vote
How big a threat are Chinese EVs to Japan Inc.?
How far will the ECB go to slay its ‘greedy beast’?
Is the inflation crisis over?
What lies ahead for the global economy and markets?
Are greedy firms behind the inflation crisis?
Is the UK a stagflation outlier?
Property Special – How much more pain to come?
What are our clients asking us about?
Why is this economic cycle so weird?
What's really been behind the US stock market rally?
How did a UK recession just get more likely?
Whatever happened to the China “growth miracle”?
Special: What’s wrong with the UK economy (and what will it take to fix it)?
How worried should we be about the debt ceiling?
How likely is an economic soft landing?
Is China finally willing to budge on debt talks?
Just how tight are financial conditions?
Special: How much trouble is globalisation in?
Where will bank turmoil blowback show up in the data?
How will the bank turmoil come back to bite?
The Weekly Briefing: Why is everyone worried about commercial real estate?
Special: Does the turmoil end with the Credit Suisse deal?
The Weekly Briefing: Has enough been done to end the turmoil?
Special: The SVB crisis – What are the risks from here?
SVB's collapse – An isolated case or the next financial crisis?
Do labour market mysteries point to higher-for-longer rates?
Why will India rise but China stall?
One year on – How has the war changed Europe's economies?
How have EMs avoided an old-school debt crisis?
Special: What's really happening in the US economy – and what does it mean for markets?
Are economies through the worst?
How are economies faring ahead of the week's big rate decisions?
What does the world economy look like after globalisation?
Special: How bad could it get for property markets in 2023?
How much of a game changer is China's reopening?
Could a "petroyuan" dethrone King Dollar?
Special: The Bank of Japan makes its move – what happens now?
Will 2023 be another rollercoaster year for economies and markets?
Is this endgame for the global monetary tightening cycle?
What do collapsing shipping costs mean for inflation?
Special: China's zero-COVID policy at the limits
Will the global economy dodge a recession?
Is the dollar rally done and dusted?
Why can't China just ditch zero-COVID?
To pivot or not to pivot?
What will the global recession look like?
Are central banks winning the war against inflation?
Who decides Chinese economic policy in Xi Jinping's third term?
How will fracturing reshape the global economy and markets?
What have we learned from Kwasi Kwarteng's budget blunder?