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The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics — 202 episodes

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1

The Trump-Xi meeting and the limits of a reset | Germany’s overdone pessimism

2

A tough macro backdrop gets tougher. Will equities care?

3

What if the energy shock gets worse? And what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed?

4

Global imbalances, all over again | Gulf economies in crisis

5

A fragile ceasefire: What next for economies and markets?

6

AI and economies: from capex boom to productivity payoff

7

Global Economic Outlook: Forecasting in the fog of war

8

Policy in a time of conflict: Central banks and the growth-inflation trade-off

9

Oil, war and economies – Three scenarios for the Middle East conflict

10

Middle East conflict, oil prices and that US jobs drop

11

Special Episode: Conflict in the Middle East – The key macro and market questions

12

Can China finally fix its economic model?

13

Supreme Court special: What the Trump tariffs ruling means for macro and markets

14

Brown on the US outlook, Gregory on UK politics

15

Tech sell-off, AI winners and losers, and reasons to be optimistic about productivity

16

Inflation nation – Japan’s turning point and a critical election

17

Special Episode: What Kevin Warsh would mean for the Fed

18

A new world order? | Why Russia’s economy won’t stop the war

19

Neil Shearing on China’s trillion dollar surplus; Leah Fahy on China's AI race

20

Maduro’s capture | Is the AI productivity boom here?

21

Special: Global CRE outlook – Where to find returns in a uniquely weak recovery

22

Dodgy data, all flavour of rate move and a bubble that will keep inflating (for now)

23

Special episode: The World in 2026 – Key drivers, key risks in global macro

24

Can Europe compete in a fractured world?

25

UK Budget: The Missing Growth Story | China: The Investment Mystery

26

More AI bubble fears, the UK Budget countdown and Saudi Arabia’s global pivot

27

Is AI killing jobs, and when does the growth payoff arrive?

28

The Rachel Reeves tax threat, the Supreme Court tariffs test and the fate of the AI boom

29

Driving in fog, standing on ice: The Fed and the fragile trade truce

30

Trump and Xi, CPI and the Fed, oil and sanctions

31

US–China trade war – What’s driving the latest escalation

32

The AI frenzy, Japan’s market shock and France’s political storm

33

Global Outlook: US leads, Europe lags | China’s equities boom

34

Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue

35

US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank shifts

36

US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs geopolitics

37

US jobs hit, France’s budget gridlock and China's world order optics

38

Neil Shearing on The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy

39

A Chinese consumption breakthrough? | The global jobs slowdown

40

China's struggles, Bessent's overreach, Wall Street's climb and India's tariffs hit

41

BoE division, data confusion, looming US CPI | Taking Trump’s manufacturing pledges to task

42

That big payrolls miss and the US outlook plus AI's energy demands

43

How the global economy is fracturing under Trump

44

What if Trump fires Powell? | Global inflation signals and the policy outlook

45

'Tariff Man' returns, US-China diverging price risks – and is AI triggering a jobs bloodbath?

46

Tariffs deadline looms, Trump’s inflammatory tax bill and why deglobalisation isn't nigh

47

The global economy's fragile underpinnings plus BYD, DeepSeek and China's productivity problems

48

Special: A fragile peace takes hold – what next for economies and energy markets?

49

Risk vs uncertainty in the Middle East, dollar in focus, and new Asia market coverage

50

Israel-Iran strikes, the Fed’s next steps, US-China trade talks and more

51

Are tariffs starting to bite? Plus, the economics of rising defence spending

52

Tariffs on! Tariffs off! Tariffs on! The latest episode in the trade war saga plus data to track the turmoil

53

Trump’s EU tariff threat, jittery bond markets, UK macro update, gold’s next steps and more

54

Back from the brink – How the global outlook has brightened (and what can still go wrong)

55

US-China trade talks preview, what to make of that US-UK "deal", and the future of Europe

56

There's a trade war on – why aren't the hard data showing it?

57

Reports of King Dollar’s death – exaggerated or inevitable?

58

The pause is on! What to expect from the global economy during and after Trump's tariffs pause

59

It's a US-China trade war, after all

60

Special: Trump's reciprocal tariffs, China strikes back and a hellish week for markets

61

A "whiff of stagflation", the state of US exceptionalism, and China's weak start to 2025

62

The Mar-a-Lago myth, another crisis in Turkey and Rachel Reeves' under pressure

63

What to make of US recession fears, a Fed preview, our long-term global macro outlook and more

64

Tariffs special: The macro implications of Trump's latest trade actions

65

In the fog of policy uncertainty, China’s National People's Congress, India in Trumpland and more

66

Was that the week that changed the world?

67

Why markets rallied on reciprocal tariffs; Germans to vote in the shadow of Trump, Xi and Putin

68

Lessons from a drama-filled week in Trumpland, China upends the EM development model and more

69

Special: Trump tariffs unleashed - does a global trade war follow?

70

Trump vs the Fed, the real Stargate story and why oil prices look even shakier

71

An ‘American Carnage’ sequel? Another big year for US stocks, Keir Starmer's AI dreams and more

72

Jobs blowout deepens bond market gloom, Rachel Reeves' sticky fiscal wicket, Trump and the dollar and more

73

The Fed changes tack, why no second Plaza Accord and why markets punished Brazil

74

Central bank policy pains, China’s pivot, the market bubble in 2025, geopolitics vs macro and more

75

The World in 2025 – The macro themes that will shape next year

76

More tariff threats, China and 'Japanification', payrolls preview, India and Trump and more

77

Special Episode: What to make of Trump's tariff warning

78

Trying to avoid talking Trump and what an end to the Ukraine war could look like

79

The economic fallout from tariffs and deportations and what follows the 'Trump bump'

80

Trump up-ends the macro narrative and the Chinese stimulus that wasn’t

81

Special Episode: The US election aftermath and Trump's second coming

82

What this election means for macro and markets and the aftermath of the UK Budget

83

Special Episode: UK Budget – Macro impact, market reaction

84

Bond market jitters, UK Budget preview, Trudeau’s immigration U-turn and more

85

What Trump gets wrong on tariffs, a super-sized ECB rate cut, EV sales vs oil demand and more

86

Another China stimulus let-down, the Fed and ECB’s next steps, India’s commodities demand and more

87

Larry Adam and Neil Shearing on the global macro/markets outlook

88

Special: Iran's missile strike on Israel and oil market implications

89

China’s stimulus blizzard, the ECB’s quandary, Kamala Harris' housing plan and more

90

As the Fed gets cutting, where will rates settle?

91

Property Special: Retail’s return from the dead and what to expect from its recovery

92

25 or 50? What the Fed will do, how markets could react, and our new recession indicators

93

What that payrolls report means for the Fed, the ECB's balancing act, recession risks and more

94

August payrolls preview, China's confused policy moves, key risks to watch and more

95

What Powell said at Jackson Hole, China-India ties in a fractured world and more

96

After the summer growth scare – The state of the global economy

97

Has the global markets storm blown over?

98

Payrolls fallout – The spectre of US recession haunts the stock market

99

What to watch in a jam-packed week of market events

100

Special episode: Who's going to lead the global CRE recovery?

101

The global IT outage, China’s growth and reform struggles, an update on the inflation battle and more

102

'More good data' for the Fed, more election uncertainty and why the ECB won't rush a follow-up

103

UK Election Special Briefing – What will Labour do to fix the economy?

104

Biden’s debate stumble and the macro/market context, UK election preview, shipping rates resurgent and more

105

Bond markets in election season, the stock market bubble, India economic outlook and more

106

French turmoil, the Fed and BoE in the election cycle, Europe’s EVs tariffs and more

107

Spotlight 2024: US outperformance and the future of global macro and markets leadership

108

ECB Special: A key moment in the post-pandemic monetary cycle

109

Election fever, US/euro-zone inflation previews, AI and productivity and more

110

Biden’s latest China salvo, the stock market bubble revisited, UK CPI preview and more

111

What’s missing from the China overcapacity row, that UK GDP data and an exclusive inflation briefing

112

Payrolls relief, oil and the US election, the RBA’s next move and more

113

That Fed rate hike noise, China trip notes and EM FX challenges

114

Overcooked inflation fears, the end of the excess savings debate and a global markets briefing

115

Janet Yellen's Beijing trip and the Chinese overcapacity threat

116

Emerging markets special: An EM risk early warning system and EMs and the green transition

117

Baltimore bridge collapse, our Global Economic Outlook, Trump vs Canada and Mexico and more

118

What’s gone wrong with the German economy?

119

Fed week! The BoJ’s big moment, TikTok and fracturing, Putin’s war economy and more

120

The coming collapse of Chinese construction and Fed rate cuts vs the stock bubble

121

The coming clash over Chinese oversupply, the UK budget vs the bond market, the carbon price outlook and more

122

Trump trade wars, stock market bubbles, Japan's market comeback and the world in 2050

123

How to think about recessions, fiscal shackles, financial instability risks and more

124

Inflation rebound risk, bank real estate exposure, Trump trade wars and dollar and EM outlooks

125

A bumper US jobs report, central banks and labour markets and that wave of US CRE loans

126

Fed week! China's stimulus blizzard, Houthi inflation risk and more

127

Inflation's "last mile", an ECB preview, China data discrepancies, and maximum bullish on US stocks

128

Macro in a more dangerous world, UK CPI preview, bond vigilantes, and the US energy export surge

129

2024’s uncertain start, US CPI preview, Taiwan's flashpoint election and more

130

The Fed gifts the bond market, the EM growth outlook and that COP28 agreement

131

What could go wrong in 2024, the BoE on Table Mountain and the US housing outlook

132

Where to spot fiscal risks and how to think about US-China economic competition

133

2024: Weaker growth, cooler inflation, lower rates

134

Special episode – Argentina's election: Shock result...shock therapy?

135

Flavours of recession, Xi vs Biden vs Trump, Jeremy Hunt’s big dilemma

136

Calls for 2024, deglobalised pandas, Saudi’s shifting allegiances

137

What the global data say, what the central banks said, and Italy’s debt balloon

138

Fed week, the US economic outlook and financial markets at war

139

5% Treasury yields, geopolitics vs the Fed, China’s dollar dilemma, an AI stock bubble and more

140

Special episode: AI and the global economic order

141

Israel-Gaza and heightened geo-economic risk and what to expect in the post-pandemic rates era

142

How much more pain for bond markets?

143

The global economic outlook, or why "higher for longer" won't last

144

Special Episode: Is AI coming for our jobs?

145

AI’s productivity boom, central bank rhetoric vs reality, recession risk and more

146

After rate hikes, US economy anomaly, EU vs Chinese EVs and more

147

Huawei’s chip surprise, the energy price spike, Nvidia in India, UK vs Germany

148

September's rate decisions, China's stepped up stimulus, and the AI race

149

Signs of trouble, equities off the boil, those Nvidia earnings and AI’s promise

150

The bond market disconnect, the fiscal policy outlook and an exclusive China briefing

151

Chinese deflation, US July CPI and commodities markets feel the pinch

152

Disinflation's mystery, China's structural slowdown and Argentina's risky vote

153

How big a threat are Chinese EVs to Japan Inc.?

154

How far will the ECB go to slay its ‘greedy beast’?

155

Is the inflation crisis over?

156

What lies ahead for the global economy and markets?

157

Are greedy firms behind the inflation crisis?

158

Is the UK a stagflation outlier?

159

Property Special – How much more pain to come?

160

What are our clients asking us about?

161

Why is this economic cycle so weird?

162

What's really been behind the US stock market rally?

163

How did a UK recession just get more likely?

164

Whatever happened to the China “growth miracle”?

165

Special: What’s wrong with the UK economy (and what will it take to fix it)?

166

How worried should we be about the debt ceiling?

167

How likely is an economic soft landing?

168

Is China finally willing to budge on debt talks?

169

Just how tight are financial conditions?

170

Special: How much trouble is globalisation in?

171

Where will bank turmoil blowback show up in the data?

172

How will the bank turmoil come back to bite?

173

The Weekly Briefing: Why is everyone worried about commercial real estate?

174

Special: Does the turmoil end with the Credit Suisse deal?

175

The Weekly Briefing: Has enough been done to end the turmoil?

176

Special: The SVB crisis – What are the risks from here?

177

SVB's collapse – An isolated case or the next financial crisis?

178

Do labour market mysteries point to higher-for-longer rates?

179

Why will India rise but China stall?

180

One year on – How has the war changed Europe's economies?

181

How have EMs avoided an old-school debt crisis?

182

Special: What's really happening in the US economy – and what does it mean for markets?

183

Are economies through the worst?

184

How are economies faring ahead of the week's big rate decisions?

185

What does the world economy look like after globalisation?

186

Special: How bad could it get for property markets in 2023?

187

How much of a game changer is China's reopening?

188

Could a "petroyuan" dethrone King Dollar?

189

Special: The Bank of Japan makes its move – what happens now?

190

Will 2023 be another rollercoaster year for economies and markets?

191

Is this endgame for the global monetary tightening cycle?

192

What do collapsing shipping costs mean for inflation?

193

Special: China's zero-COVID policy at the limits

194

Will the global economy dodge a recession?

195

Is the dollar rally done and dusted?

196

Why can't China just ditch zero-COVID?

197

To pivot or not to pivot?

198

What will the global recession look like?

199

Are central banks winning the war against inflation?

200

Who decides Chinese economic policy in Xi Jinping's third term?

201

How will fracturing reshape the global economy and markets?

202

What have we learned from Kwasi Kwarteng's budget blunder?