CyberDisobedience - by John Aravosis

Trump is caving again on Iran. And not quietly.Last week, he was telling us the Strait of Hormuz was closed because he closed it. Not Iran. Him. Iran was supposedly begging him to reopen it, and he said no, because he could keep it shut for weeks or months until Iran was desperate. Very tough. Very strong. Very alpha, as long as you don’t wait four days.Today, Trump suddenly decided he needed to reopen the strait immediately. First, he told the press that the US Navy would force its way through with military escorts and reopen the shipping lane by force. Then, as usual, Trump flip-flopped again. The actual plan turned into two US-flagged commercial ships following some Navy ships checking for mines. Two ships. In a waterway that normally sees something like 150 ships a day. Congratulations. We’ve invented the world’s most expensive maritime participation trophy.Then Iran started firing. Missiles and drones at US forces and merchant vessels. Missiles at the UAE. Iran even claimed it hit a US Navy ship, while the US denied it. In normal times, I’d believe the US military. Under Donald Trump, who lies the way other people breathe, who knows. And that’s one of the most dangerous things he’s done to this country: He’s made it harder to trust the US government, even when the government may be telling the truth.In spite of all this, Trump says the ceasefire isn’t broken. Which is fascinating, because generally when the other side is firing missiles at you, we call that “not a ceasefire.” Silly me.The economic piece is just as bad. Oil jumped again. Gas is now around $4.47 nationally. Diesel is hitting all-time highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. And this is the same man who promised gas under $2 a gallon, and said he’d cut energy prices in half within 12 months. We’re now 15 months in, and prices went the other direction. Not only did he fail. He failed big time.As for Trump officials claiming the past few days that “it was worse under Biden” not really. National gas prices were over $4 during Biden’s term only from March to August 2022. That’s it. Trump is already back over $4. He owns this. He promised to cut energy prices, and he’s raised them. He promised to cut inflation, and he raised it.Then there’s Ukraine, where the picture is increasingly brutal for Russia. Russia captured only 68 square miles last month, while losing thousands of vehicles and tens of thousands of troops killed and wounded. At that rate, as Frank Luntz noted (citing Forbes), Russia would take the rest of Ukraine sometime around the year 2256, at the cost of roughly 101 million casualties. So yes, Russia is still dangerous. But this is not the triumphant war machine Putin wants everyone to imagine.And that’s exactly why Europe is worried. Not necessarily that Putin is about to roll tanks into Poland. More likely, he tries something ambiguous. A drone operation. A Baltic Sea incident. Something in the Arctic. A shadow-fleet provocation. Something designed to scare Europe, split NATO, and make everyone argue about whether Article 5 applies.And Trump is making that more likely. He’s pulling 5,000 US troops out of Germany, including frontline troops we routinely deploy to Eastern Europe. These are exactly the kinds of forces that would matter if Putin tested NATO. So once again, Trump is doing something that helps Vladimir Putin. He can yell “Russia, Russia, Russia” all he wants. But for whatever reason, Trump is always on Putin’s side.Then, because apparently we don’t have enough wars, Trump also said the US will be taking over Cuba “almost immediately.” Remember when he ran on ending foreign wars? Now he wants to raise defense spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion — so he can fight even more wars — while threatening Cuba, Greenland, Panama, Venezuela, Gaza, and who knows who’s next.Domestically, the authoritarian freak show continues. As you know, former FBI Director Comey posted a picture of seashells on a beach arranged to say “86 47.” The phrase means “get rid of Trump, dump Trump, toss Trump, take him off the menu.” It does not mean “I am personally planning an assassination,” which is what Trump’s Justice Department is now trying to claim.Trump’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, made the problem worse (for Trump). He was asked whether all the people selling 86 47 merchandise online should also worry about prosecution. He said of course not. Because the phrase is used constantly. Exactly. That’s the point. If the phrase itself isn’t enough to prosecute everyone else, then it isn’t enough to prosecute Comey. Unless the real rule is: it’s legal when random people say it, but illegal when Trump wants revenge.Blanche also claimed that the indictment is based on something else entirely — some mysterious “other” evidence to prove that James Comey is really Squeaky Fromme. Except the indictment itself is about the seashells. That’s it. That’s the case. It’s not that long an indictment, and the entire thing is about seashells. If they had all this alleged other evidence, why isn’t it in the indictment? Why didn’t they present it? Why is the entire charging document about the seashell post? It’s not law enforcement. Because they’re likely lying again.Next topic, election theft. Blanche gave us another classic: He said we should require voter ID because you have to show ID every time you walk into a restaurant. What restaurants is this man going to? Unless he’s talking about strip clubs, most adults do not show ID to enter a restaurant. You show ID if you’re young and ordering alcohol. That’s not the same thing as voting.Meanwhile, Trump’s numbers are cratering. Harry Enten says Trump’s net approval is now the worst ever for him. His support among GOP-leaning independents has collapsed from 91 percent in 2024 to 53 percent job approval now. His $1.5 trillion defense spending plan is opposed by nearly two-thirds of Americans. And more Americans, a solid majority, now say he isn’t physically healthy enough to serve.Which brings us to Trump bragging again about cognitive tests. He keeps saying he’s taken three of them, and aced them. He doesn’t seem to understand what he’s admitting. Doctors don’t usually give you three cognitive tests for fun. They give them because they’re worried about dementia, Alzheimer’s, cognitive decline — and you don’t get three unless things are getting worse. Also, when Trump says the tests are hard, that’s not the flex he thinks it is. They’re not supposed to be hard, UNLESS YOU HAVE DEMENTIA.So tonight’s show was Iran, oil, Ukraine, NATO, Cuba, Comey, voter suppression, Trump’s collapsing polls, Hegseth lying about troops at polling places, and Trump bragging about dementia tests. In other words, our foreign policy is dangerous, the economy is getting uglier, the authoritarianism is getting louder, and the people in charge are still somehow dumber than the crisis they created. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s Iran war is now hitting Americans exactly where everyone knew it would: at the gas pump.The Strait of Hormuz is still the center of this mess, and Trump is now pitching some new coalition to reopen it, after spending days pretending he didn’t need anyone else, and in fact, he WANTED it closed! He even claimed that King Charles privately told him he would’ve been willing to join the war against Iran, which is one of those Trump stories that sounds less like diplomacy and more like a guy at a bar explaining how all the important people secretly agree with him. (Buckingham Palace was forced to publicly deny the story.)Meanwhile, gas is already at $4.40. Oil is still sitting at crisis levels. And Republicans are doing what Republicans always do when reality becomes inconvenient: lie. Tim Scott said gas prices are coming down. They’re not. Steve Scalise claimed gas is way down from two years ago. It’s not. Pete Hegseth suggested California gas was $8 when the war started. It wasn’t. This is the problem with propaganda. It doesn’t make the price at the pump go down. And people aren’t stupid. They go to the store and they know what things cost. And lately, that’s far too much.And even if the Strait reopens, some day, prices don’t magically fix themselves the next day. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan is saying prices may not return to pre-war levels for well over a year after the Strait reopens. So the idea that this is just a temporary inconvenience, that Trump can wave his hand and prices will collapse, is fantasy. This is the cost of war. It’s the cost of instability. It’s the cost of putting a guy in charge who treats global security like a reality show cliffhanger.Then there’s Trump’s war on the press, which is getting more dangerous by the day. Just days after a gunman entered a dinner hosting thousands of journalists, Trump called CNN “the enemy,” and said the New York Times was “actually seditious.” Sedition is not just “I disagree with this newspaper.” Sedition means trying to violently overthrow the government. So when Trump tells his supporters that journalists are enemies of the country, and literally trying to violently overthrow him, that’s not harmless bluster. That’s the kind of language that can inspire someone unstable to act, violently.And the hypocrisy is off the charts. Trump and Melania just spent days whining because a comedian told a joke they thought was mean. But Trump can accuse journalists of being enemies of the state, and suddenly everyone is supposed to pretend this is normal. It’s not normal. It’s authoritarian. And it’s dangerous.The rest of the show is the full Trump collapse in miniature: the Justice Department going after James Comey over “86 47,” revived probes that look a whole lot like political retribution, the Epstein suicide note that was apparently sealed for years, Trump attacking Hakeem Jeffries for criticizing the Supreme Court after Trump himself trashed the Court last week, and Trump’s sons taking a stake in a Kazakh mining company that won a $1.6 billion US government contract. Just normal family business. Nothing to see here, Hunter.And because no Trump news cycle is complete without some cognitive weirdness, Trump is now bragging that he took cognitive tests three whole times! And never once asked WHY his doctor thought he needed three tests for dementia. Add in Russia claiming Trump and Putin blamed Zelensky for the lack of a peace deal, Ukraine aid only moving after Mitch McConnell had to shame the administration, and Trump apparently gluing his own challenge coins to White House doors, and you’ve got the whole picture. War, corruption, gas prices, authoritarian rhetoric, and a president decorating the White House like it’s a tacky casino gift shop.That’s tonight’s show, check out the video for more. Otherwise, I’ll check in tomorrow. Thanks, JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump’s Iran war has entered the phase everyone warned about: The quagmire phase.Not the “mission accomplished” phase. Not the “we bombed them and they folded” phase. Not even the “we have a diplomatic off-ramp” phase. No. We’re now in the “let’s keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for months, keep US forces parked in the region, watch oil and gasoline prices explode, and hope Iran blinks before we do something even stupider” phase.That’s not a strategy. That’s Vietnam with oil futures.The reporting today is pretty straightforward. Trump reportedly doesn’t want to resume bombing Iran, but he also doesn’t want to back down. So now the plan is an extended blockade. The Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The blockade remains. US forces remain in the region. Iran doesn’t capitulate. Trump doesn’t retreat. And both sides sit there waiting for the other guy to blink -- or fire first.And the problem is, that’s how wars spread.This is the thing Trump never understands. Or maybe he understands it and just doesn’t care. You can’t shut down one of the most important oil chokepoints in the world and then act shocked when oil prices spike. Gasoline is already climbing. Oil is already surging. And that feeds directly into inflation, which feeds into bond yields, which feeds into mortgage rates, business borrowing, the cost of servicing the national debt, and eventually recession risk.So when Trump says he’s being tough, what he’s really saying is: You’re going to pay more at the pump, your mortgage is going to get more expensive, businesses are going to get squeezed, and the Fed may have to keep rates higher because Trump needed to prove he was a big strong man.And politically, the numbers are brutal. Americans think the economy is on the wrong track. Independents say the economy was better under Biden. Trump’s inflation numbers are historically awful. That’s the part he can’t spin away. You can lie about a war. You can lie about a deal. You can lie about Iran being “in collapse.” But people know what they’re paying for gas. They know what groceries cost. They know what their rent and mortgage cost. Reality has a way of punching through the propaganda.And then there’s the Comey indictment, which is almost too stupid to be real. James Comey gets indicted over seashells arranged to say “86 47,” while Trump’s own allies have used the exact same “86” language about Biden and members of Congress. Trump himself has posted violent imagery about Biden. But somehow Comey’s beach photo is the national emergency.This is what authoritarian governments do. It’s Soviet, communist Chinese, and Putinesque. They don’t apply the law equally. They define the law as whatever protects Dear Leader and punishes his enemies. If Trump’s enemies say something ambiguous, it’s a federal case. If Trump’s allies say something worse, suddenly everyone becomes a free speech absolutist. (Remember when JD Vance scolded the UK, and Europe overall, for being soft on free speech?)The rest of the show is the same theme in different forms: corruption, hypocrisy, decay, and consequences. Israel wants Ukraine’s help against Hezbollah drones while still playing footsie with Putin and refusing to help Ukraine. The Supreme Court just made it easier to dismantle minority voting power. The White House calls Trump a king days after Trump says calling him a king puts his life in danger. And Trump manages to embarrass himself in front of actual royalty, because apparently even the British monarchy isn’t safe from his desperate need to be the center of attention.The through-line is simple: Trump creates chaos, lies about the chaos, blames everyone else for the chaos, and then asks why everything is on fire. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show I’ll discuss Trump’s increasingly bizarre week of corruption, authoritarian branding, and general weirdness. We’ll start with the Comey indictment, the FCC targeting Disney and ABC because Melania Trump doesn’t like Jimmy Kimmel, Trump calling everyone fascists, and the still-murky ballroom shooting that may not even have been a shooting. Then there’s the ballroom itself: Trump now says it isn’t paid for and wants Congress to cough up $400 million, while Republicans are basically saying, sure, why not, let’s just hand him a taxpayer-funded palace.I’ll also get into Trump’s war with Iran and the economic fallout. Gas is now reportedly up to $4.19 a gallon, oil prices are spiking again, and Trump is claiming Iran is in a “state of collapse” and wants the US to open the Strait of Hormuz -- one minute before markets opened, because apparently that’s how we do global crisis management now. We’ll talk about King Charles, Trump’s weird handshake moment, Paramount asking the FCC to approve nearly 50 percent Middle East ownership in its Warner deal, and The Bulwark’s report that the State Department is close to redesigning US passports to put Trump’s face on them. Because nothing says constitutional republic like turning your passport into a Dear Leader collector’s item.And then we’ll hit immigration, public health, and a few international stories. The Miami Herald says ICE arrests of Cubans have skyrocketed under Trump as green cards have plummeted. The White House is doubling down on renaming ICE as “NICE,” which is so stupid it almost feels like parody, except it’s apparently real. CNN says 2025 was America’s worst measles year since the disease was declared eliminated in 2000, and this year could be worse. We’ll also talk about Hungary’s Peter Magyar proposing a meeting with Zelensky, Israel’s response to Ukraine’s allegation that it bought Russian-stolen grain, and yes, because we deserve one moment of sanity, the seagull competition.00:00 -- Technical chaos, audio problems, and getting the show started06:27 -- A very bad news day for democracy in America09:36 -- Trump’s Comey indictment over the “86 47” beach photo12:22 -- What “86 47” means, and why the case is absurd and dangerous18:10 -- The legal theory behind the Comey threat allegation22:30 -- Why criminalizing anti-Trump speech is the point27:23 -- FCC targets Disney/ABC licenses over Jimmy Kimmel31:45 -- Trump’s video calling his opponents fascists33:00 -- The White House ballroom “shooting” that may not have been a shooting34:45 -- Trump now wants Congress to pay $400 million for the ballroom37:20 -- Trump’s weird ballroom brief and the reflecting pool lie40:05 -- NYT reporting on Clark Construction, no-bid work, and inflated pricing43:20 -- Gas prices spike as Trump’s Iran war fallout hits Americans46:10 -- Oil prices jump again and the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues49:40 -- Trump claims Iran is in a “state of collapse” right before markets open53:15 -- King Charles, Trump’s speech video, and the weird handshake moment58:20 -- Paramount asks FCC to approve nearly 50% Middle East ownership1:02:20 -- Bulwark report: Trump’s face may be going inside US passports1:07:10 -- ICE arrests of Cubans skyrocket while green cards plummet1:09:15 -- The White House wants to rename ICE as “NICE”1:10:55 -- Measles is back, and 2026 may be worse1:12:15 -- Hungary’s Magyar seeks a reset with Zelensky1:13:30 -- Israel’s response to Ukraine’s stolen-grain allegations1:16:07 -- The European seagull screeching competition saves the day1:17:48 -- Wrap-up, Sasha, giant crows, and tomorrow’s show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’ll start with the latest on the Washington Hilton shooting scare, the man arrested with guns and knives, and the obvious security questions this raises. He never got inside the secure perimeter and apparently wasn’t even on Trump’s floor, but he still could’ve hurt journalists and other people entering through the front of the hotel. And now Trump is using this to claim he needs his giant ballroom, because of course he is. Never mind that the event had about 1,000 people, not 2,500. Never mind that this wasn’t even a government event. And never mind that Trump’s previous assassination attempt was at one of his own resorts -- which he somehow hasn’t declared off-limits, presumably because that would interfere with the grift.Then we’ll get into the bigger Trump spin operation: his people are now trying to blame Democrats for a “culture of violence,” which is pretty rich coming from Donald Trump. This is the guy who mocked Paul Pelosi after he was nearly killed with a hammer, celebrated Robert Mueller’s death, tried to violently overthrow the government, and just posted a racist video depicting Barack and Michelle Obama as gorillas. But now Melania is lecturing Jimmy Kimmel about hateful rhetoric, Karoline Leavitt is blaming people for comparing Trump to H*tler -- when JD Vance did exactly that -- and the Heritage Foundation is pretending America has a left-wing violence problem, even though the data shows right-wing political murders have massively outpaced left-wing ones for decades. The point isn’t subtle: Trump is trying to turn a security failure into a political weapon, while deflecting from Epstein, Iran, and an economy that’s not exactly booming.And then we’ll turn overseas, starting with Iran, where Trump claimed there was some huge new Iranian offer to reopen the Strait and set aside the nuclear issue -- just in time for the markets to close -- except it appears he lied. Oil is back up, gasoline is almost back to its crisis high, and Germany’s chancellor is now openly saying the Americans have no coherent strategy, no exit plan, and may be getting humiliated by Iran. We’ll also talk about Israel allegedly buying stolen Ukrainian grain from Russia, Mali’s Russian-backed junta possibly collapsing, Canada’s prime minister saying the US has changed and Canada has to adjust, the Trump administration’s move away from newborn hepatitis B shots, and the report that Kash Patel may already be on his way out. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit aravosis.substack.comThis weekend’s shooting at the Washington Hilton is one of those stories where the instant hot take -- “security failed” -- may not actually be right. This was the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, the annual Washington media prom — we call it Nerd Prom — where the press, politicians, and celebrities all gather at the Washington Hilton. The Hilton — o…

On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing the latest in the Iran war, including reports that negotiators are heading back to Pakistan, Trump blurting out that Iran may be preparing a “huge offer,” and new concerns that Iran dropped more mines in the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll also talk about the Reuters report that the Pentagon has been looking at ways to punish NATO allies it thinks didn’t sufficiently back US operations in Iran -- including the absurd idea of suspending Spain from NATO, which NATO then had to explain isn’t actually a thing. And we’ll get into the bigger cost of this war: US bomb and missile stockpiles reportedly depleted, commanders in Europe and Asia less ready, and a price tag approaching $1 billion a day. Then there’s the political/economic fallout. Saudi Arabia is reportedly backing out of a $200 million commitment to the Met Opera because the war is hitting the Saudi economy. Poll after poll is showing Trump getting absolutely hammered on the economy, with independents turning sharply against him, voters furious about gas prices, and even a chunk of 2024 Trump voters now supporting impeachment. And at the same time, Trump is online in the middle of the night posting increasingly unhinged stuff about treason, the 2020 election being “wiped from the books,” and the Southern Poverty Law Center somehow being part of another grand conspiracy. Totally normal. Nothing to see here.And we’ll hit the rest of the madness too: Trump claiming Obama blocked a Spirit Airlines merger years after Obama left office and decades after People Express went out of business; the Justice Department literally bringing back the firing squad; Republicans floating a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell if she talks to Congress; Kash Patel’s old arrests resurfacing while he faces scrutiny over drinking; and Trump-approved taxpayer payouts to Carter Page, Michael Flynn, and Ashli Babbitt’s estate. Plus, the Trump family’s reported billions off the presidency, the hideous Reflecting Pool renovation, the acting Navy secretary worried about witchcraft, and yes, tomorrow night is the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.00:00 - Welcome, setup, and tonight’s big Iran/economy/polls show01:38 - Trump is in serious trouble in the polls03:42 - Iran negotiations may be back on -- and Trump conveniently announces it right before the market closes04:13 - Trump’s Friday pattern: miracle Iran claims, market manipulation, and fake optimism05:09 - Iran reportedly drops more mines in the Strait of Hormuz05:37 - Trump’s incoherent Strait of Hormuz story: he wants it closed, open, closed, and open again08:23 - Reuters: Pentagon looked at ways to punish NATO allies over Iran war support08:39 - Trump reportedly considers suspending Spain from NATO -- except he can’t09:03 - Trump threatens to reassess US support on the Falklands/Malvinas10:08 - Why picking Argentina over Britain would be geopolitical malpractice11:09 - Trump’s deeper attack on NATO and US national security11:35 - More reported NATO punishment ideas -- and what wasn’t in the Pentagon email12:00 - Trump’s World Cup stunt: punishing Iran and rewarding Italy17:16 - Israeli intelligence reportedly thinks Mojtaba Khamenei is dead17:40 - Why Israeli intelligence may know more about Iran than almost anyone18:29 - Intelligence, disinformation, and what to believe about Iran22:33 - Saudi Arabia pulls back from a $200M Met Opera deal because of the war’s economic impact22:49 - NYT: Iran war drains US bombs and missiles and costs nearly $1B a day23:03 - Trump claims Obama blocked a 2024 Spirit Airlines merger with an airline that died in 198724:39 - Trump’s Justice Department brings back the firing squad27:45 - Trump boosts treason claims against Hillary Clinton, Obama, and Brennan28:14 - Trump’s 1:13 a.m. meltdown over the Southern Poverty Law Center and the 2020 election33:17 - Republicans float a Ghislaine Maxwell pardon so she’ll talk to Congress33:55 - Kash Patel’s old public urination and intoxication arrests resurface34:34 - Fox News poll: Democrats lead Republicans on the economy for the first time in 16 years37:52 - Trump’s economy approval collapses from +6 to -3238:28 - Trump has the worst presidential economic net approval on record39:18 - Independents are abandoning Trump on the economy40:15 - Cook Political Report: independents say Trump failed on cost of living40:27 - Reuters poll: gas prices are a huge problem, even for Republicans40:57 - One in five 2024 Trump voters supports impeaching him41:22 - Fox poll: 55% say Trump lacks the mental soundness to serve41:50 - Jim VandeHei’s warning: Republicans know they’re in a huge hole43:30 - Why a Democratic House would create subpoena hell for Trump43:54 - Democrats threaten to go after the Ellison/CBS/CNN empire44:42 - Mother Jones: preventable child deaths after Musk dismantled USAID44:54 - DOJ expected to drop the Jerome Powell investigation -- with a catch45:41 - Trump-approved taxpayer payouts to Carter Page, Michael Flynn, and Ashli Babbitt’s estate47:23 - Bernie Sanders: the Trump family has made $4B off the presidency48:17 - Trump turns the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool into a swimming pool49:31 - Donald Tusk says there are “no Russians in the room” -- then Slovakia’s Fico walks by51:55 - Trump honors Georgia women’s tennis by shaking only the men’s hands53:38 - The official photo shoves the women behind the men55:04 - Trump’s new acting Navy secretary worries about witchcraft57:13 - White House Correspondents’ Dinner preview: Trump, no comedian, and press cowardice58:52 - Tomorrow’s member Coffee Talk reminder59:50 - Conservative comedians, why the right struggles with culture, and the arts01:01:57 - Why education, empathy, and the humanities tend to repel MAGA01:09:42 - Closing remarks and signoff This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the ugly reality that Trump clearly isn’t planning to end this war anytime soon -- and he’s not even being honest about what’s happening. Today he bizarrely claimed the war has only been going on for six weeks, when it’s been eight, then snapped at reporters and started rambling about Vietnam lasting longer, as if that somehow makes this debacle better. At the same time, oil and gas prices are climbing again, jet fuel is getting squeezed, and even airline executives are warning that the economic fallout is likely to get worse in the weeks ahead. I’ll also get into the broader cost of this war -- not just in money, but in strategic damage. Reports say the US has burned through so many munitions in Iran that officials are now worried we may not be fully prepared for a Taiwan contingency in the near term, with years needed to rebuild stockpiles. That’s the part nobody in this administration wants to talk about. They want to posture and bluster, but wars don’t happen in a vacuum, and when you drain military resources into one open-ended conflict, you weaken yourself somewhere else. And then there’s the corruption, the incompetence, and the authoritarian creep wrapped around all of it. Trump’s approval is collapsing, his administration is reportedly ramping up efforts to strip citizenship from naturalized Americans, Fox is cheering on yet another Trump family cash-in tied to government power, and the broader MAGA project just keeps turning into the very swamp it claimed to oppose. So tonight I’m going to pull all of that together -- the war, the rising costs, the hypocrisy, and the bigger question of how much more damage Trump is willing to do because he apparently has no exit plan at all.0:00 Opening — Iran war reality check2:10 Trump claims war is “only 6 weeks” + Vietnam rant6:45 Strait of Hormuz control claims vs reality10:30 Oil spike — Brent, WTI, and gas prices rising again14:20 Jet fuel crunch + airline warning for summer travel18:05 Khamenei health report — what it actually means22:40 US munitions depletion — Taiwan risk27:15 Pentagon planning gaps + timeline to rebuild stockpiles31:50 Strategic consequences — fighting one war, losing leverage elsewhere36:10 Trump approval collapses (new polling)39:20 Denaturalization push — what they’re actually doing43:30 Eric Trump + Pentagon contract controversy47:00 MAGA hypocrisy — “Animal Farm” moment51:10 Spirit Airlines bailout — government ownership angle54:30 RFK Jr math nonsense + Trump reaction58:00 World Cup stunt — Trump, Italy, and Meloni1:01:20 Carter Page settlement1:04:00 Meta layoffs + AI spending1:06:40 Ukraine infiltration story1:09:10 Prince Harry in Ukraine1:11:00 Trump MLK rant1:13:00 Navy sailor incident + wrap-up1:14:30 CBS report — Iran military not as destroyed as claimed1:15:30 Final thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’m going to get into the latest on Iran and this very shaky ceasefire that Trump is now trying to hold together. The reporting makes pretty clear that he’s giving Iran just a few more days to come up with a real counteroffer, because it looks like he thinks the US has gotten about all it can get militarily and he wants out before this war gets even more politically toxic. But the Strait of Hormuz is still the huge issue here. You’ve got ship seizures, competing claims about who’s controlling what, and warnings that it could take months to fully clear the waterway. And that matters because this isn’t just a military story. It’s an oil story, a shipping story, and an inflation story.I’m also going to talk about the economic fallout, because that’s where this starts getting very real for people very fast. Fuel prices go up, then everything else starts moving. Airlines are already cutting flights. Fertilizer prices are rising. Food prices are likely next. And once higher fertilizer costs start hitting corn and feed, that means higher prices for beef, chicken, eggs, dairy -- all of it. That’s how these wars work. People act like it’s some faraway foreign policy fight until it shows up in their grocery bill and at the gas pump.And then I’m going to get into the wider political mess here at home, because the rest of the news is completely nuts too. You’ve got the Virginia redistricting fight and what that could mean for the House, fraud charges against the Southern Poverty Law Center, a giant new Pentagon drone budget while Don Jr. and Eric just happen to be in the drone business, more Epstein files drama, Kash Patel’s latest legal mess, RFK Jr. warning that the US is losing scientists and research to China, and new polling showing Trump’s numbers are now worse than after January 6. So the larger point here is that the chaos is not contained. It’s overseas, it’s here, and it’s all starting to bleed together.0:00 Intro and opening thoughts2:32 CBS undercuts Trump’s claim that Iran’s military was destroyed2:44 Strait of Hormuz chaos and why it still matters3:28 Trump gives Iran a short ceasefire window to make a deal4:43 Trump’s poll numbers are now worse than after January 65:54 What was the point of this war and what counts as “winning”17:48 Fuel prices, fertilizer, and why food inflation may be next20:40 Trump floats financial help for the UAE amid war fallout22:30 Virginia redistricting and what it could mean for the House30:54 Southern Poverty Law Center indictment32:18 Trump’s massive drone budget and the Trump family business angle32:44 MTG says Trump blocked release of the Epstein files33:47 Kash Patel loses his defamation case against Frank Figliuzzi34:17 Report that CDC won’t publish covid-shot hospitalization findings35:57 Kash Patel and the New York Times reporter investigation38:23 RFK Jr. says the US is losing science and research ground to China40:33 The “Trump is losing his mind” argument and what it says about the moment43:17 US begins using Ukraine’s Sky Map system in Saudi Arabia43:30 EU approves major Ukraine loan and sanctions move after Hungary lifts veto45:25 Georgia women’s tennis White House photo48:45 Late-show CBS report -- much of Iran’s military was not destroyed55:14 Military leadership chaos during wartime57:03 Viewer Q&A and additional discussion1:13:29 Sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing how the supposed diplomatic off-ramp with Iran looks like it’s falling apart in real time. Negotiations appear to be breaking down, JD Vance’s Pakistan trip is reportedly on hold, and the various ceasefire claims flying around don’t look especially credible. Trump is doing what he always does -- saying one thing, then saying the opposite five minutes later -- extending a ceasefire on one hand while threatening bombing on the other. I’ll get into what that tells us about where the talks really stand, how Iran is responding, and why oil and gas prices are moving back up. I’ll also be looking at the larger cost of this confrontation -- strategically, economically, and militarily. There are reports that the US has burned through a significant number of key missiles, Gulf states are already looking for financial protection in case this spirals, and even consumer products are getting more expensive because of petrochemical disruption. At the same time, Trump is out there making ridiculous claims -- saying he could’ve won Vietnam and Iraq in five months, and falsely claiming Iran agreed to give up a major nuclear sticking point when that is very obviously still one of the central disputes. And in the middle of all of this, his administration is scrapping mandatory flu vaccines for US troops, because apparently even basic military readiness now has to be filtered through culture war nonsense. Then I’ll turn to the broader political picture, because the dishonesty and instability here go way beyond foreign policy. Trump is lying about inflation, lying about the timeline, and lying about the numbers. Meanwhile, even some of the people who helped create this mess are starting to crack -- Tucker Carlson, for example, is now basically admitting he sold people a bill of goods. I’ll also get into the growing signs of politicization and dysfunction across the administration, from efforts to target political enemies to the treatment of Afghan allies, the SPLC investigation, the JetBlue pricing controversy, and the cancellation of mRNA vaccine funding. The through-line in all of it is the same -- dishonesty, incompetence, and ideological fanaticism, all colliding at once, with real-world consequences.0:00 Show open and setup glitch4:47 Iran talks falling apart and JD Vance’s Pakistan trip put on hold5:45 Strait of Hormuz closure, blockade questions, and Trump’s false claims7:10 Trump’s ceasefire extension and Lebanon ceasefire starting to fray8:26 Trump threatens bombing while pretending talks are still alive10:09 Oil pressure, exports, and Iran’s strategy of endurance12:34 Gas prices and the broader economic fallout15:22 Trump claims he could’ve won Vietnam and Iraq in five months16:10 Trump scraps flu vaccine requirements for US troops20:39 US missile stockpile concerns during the Iran war20:59 UAE seeks a financial backstop in case the war worsens21:58 Petrochemical disruption and bizarre ripple effects on global prices22:55 Trump lies about inflation and rewrites the economic timeline26:38 Even right-wing media starts hinting Trump is losing it27:09 Tucker Carlson’s partial confession and attempted repositioning27:55 Southern Poverty Law Center investigation30:57 Why weaponizing government requires prosecutors who are both MAGA and competent33:54 Afghans who helped the US possibly being sent to Congo35:08 Democracy Forward request involving Kash Patel records37:47 JetBlue pricing controversy and questions about data-driven fares38:33 mRNA pancreatic cancer breakthrough and RFK Jr’s funding cuts40:30 Vaccine politics, public health fallout, and transition into audience Q&A43:49 Encephalitis discussion and vaccine-preventable disease risks45:39 Shingles, chickenpox, and long-term nerve pain55:10 Medicare, preventive care, and who actually pays for vaccines62:12 Supreme Court shadow docket discussion63:33 Can Donald Trump pardon family members?65:25 Federal vs. state crimes and the limits of presidential pardons67:22 Late-show open chat: Kyiv, Southwest near miss, and final audience questions69:27 Show ends This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I’m going to walk through the total clusterf--- of this weekend on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump’s constantly changing claims about what is and isn’t happening.Trump announced on Friday that the strait was open and that most things were agreed to, but the strait wasn’t really open, very few ships were moving, Iran reportedly had to approve transit, vessels were being charged millions, and the US was still blockading ships going to and from Iran. Then Iran said the strait wasn’t opening either, the US fired on an Iranian tanker, and now we’re somehow supposed to believe there are more talks on Wednesday even as Trump keeps insisting a deal is basically done and ready to be signed. I’m also going to get into the growing signs that Iran itself is split, with a real internal power struggle underway and reports that the IRGC is actively blocking efforts by the civilian leadership to cut a deal. I’m also going to talk about Trump himself completely losing it. He posted multiple unhinged, rambling screeds, claimed Israel didn’t talk him into the war, started relitigating the 2020 election, bragged about forcing regime change in Iran, and generally sounded like someone spinning out while events kept getting worse. Meanwhile, there’s new reporting that after an American fighter jet was shot down over Iran, Trump was screaming at aides for hours, obsessing over hostage crisis imagery, and had to be kept out of the room so people could do their jobs without him interrupting. And on top of that, the administration is no longer pretending high gas prices will be some brief little blip -- now even Trump’s own energy secretary is admitting nobody knows when prices are going back down. And then beyond Iran, I’m going to hit the bigger pattern of dysfunction and instability spreading everywhere. We’ve got reports that the US is holding up weapons deliveries purchased by European countries, Canada’s prime minister openly warning that America has become a source of disruption and weakness, Kash Patel filing a massive defamation suit while simultaneously promising arrests tied to election conspiracy claims, and new analysis suggesting Democrats now actually have a real shot at taking the Senate. I’ll also touch on Russia allegedly manipulating economic data to fool the West, Zelensky expanding long-term defense deals, and Bulgaria’s election putting a Kremlin-friendly political force in a much stronger position. So the through-line tonight is pretty simple: chaos abroad, chaos at home, and an American presidency that looks less in control by the day.0:00 Going live and getting all the platforms set up2:02 Opening the show and setting up the day’s news2:50 Labor Secretary pushed out amid scandal3:36 Iran turns into a total cluster and Trump’s false claims start unraveling5:00 Trump says the Strait is open, but ships are still being stopped7:05 The US blockade, Iran’s response, and why the Strait stayed effectively shut8:05 Trump keeps falsely claiming a deal is about to be signed9:12 Why Trump’s constant lying keeps fooling markets and the press10:20 Signs of a power struggle inside Iran10:51 The Economist reporting and the IRGC versus civilian leadership13:36 Trump’s insane tweets and his “regime change” spin15:58 Trump attacks Obama’s nuclear deal again17:00 Trump’s war rhetoric, contradictions, and what his comments may signal21:50 Trump’s bad war-history claims and the Iraq timeline detour25:28 Trump reportedly melts down after the US fighter jet is shot down27:40 The White House backs off its rosy gas-price claims28:57 The latest Iranian baby meme30:22 Gulf anger, US bases under scrutiny, and Trump musing about giving himself the Medal of Honor34:38 Kash Patel threatens arrests over the Russia probe35:05 The Atlantic allegations and Patel’s defamation lawsuit43:16 The US holds up weapons deliveries to Europe43:35 Canada says close ties to the US have become a weakness47:25 Democrats may actually have a real shot at taking the Senate48:06 Sweden says Russia may be manipulating economic data48:48 Zelensky expands long-term drone and defense deals50:05 Bulgaria’s election result is bad news for Ukraine50:43 Transition out of the main news block51:10 Dog health update: Sasha, Librela, and gabapentin52:10 Caucasus discussion after the Ukraine segment54:00 Arguing with ChatGPT about what counts as the Caucasus55:15 Quick discussion of how AI is useful and where it goes wrong57:20 More on using AI as an editor, not an oracle57:45 Dog medication dosing and precision issues with scales59:00 More on Sasha, Librela, gabapentin, and CBD63:20 Vet pricing rant and why everything in DC costs too much66:00 Dog dental pricing in DC versus elsewhere68:10 Chicago vet discussion and more pet-cost comparisons71:10 Wrap-up and sign-off starts72:05 One last breaking-news check before leaving73:10 Final Iran headline check74:10 Final sign-off across platforms This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the widening gap between what Donald Trump is claiming about Iran and what Iran is actually saying. Trump is out there insisting that Tehran agreed to everything -- that the Strait of Hormuz is open, that Iran won’t use it as a weapon, that the US will take Iran’s nuclear material, and that Iran will suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. But the facts on the ground, and Iran’s own public statements, tell a very different story. The strait still appears tightly controlled, ships are still being turned back, Iran is still asserting control over shipping traffic, and the core issues Trump claims to have solved don’t actually appear solved at all. I’ll also look at the deeper hypocrisy here, including Trump now considering a massive cash-for-uranium style arrangement after years of attacking Obama and Hillary Clinton for doing far less. Then I'll get into the broader fallout from this crisis -- military, economic, and political. That includes the continuing US blockade, Iran’s threat to shut the strait entirely if the blockade remains, the return of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the region, and what all of this means for oil markets and the global economy. I’ll talk about the stunning contradictions inside Trump’s own messaging, from gas prices to the economy, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent effectively saying Americans feel good even if they say they don’t. And I’ll cover fresh reporting that Spirit Airlines is now seeking emergency federal help because of soaring fuel costs, which gives you a pretty direct sense of how quickly these Middle East decisions are already hitting the real economy. And then I’ll turn to the political and cultural chaos surrounding Trump himself. That includes backlash from religious conservatives after Trump’s attacks on the Pope, Sean Hannity saying he’s leaving the Catholic Church, and Tucker Carlson openly raising the question of whether Trump fits biblical warnings about the antichrist. I’ll also cover the new House Judiciary Democrats probe into Jared Kushner’s role in Middle East negotiations while he reportedly continues private business dealings in the Gulf, Caitlyn Jenner’s appeal to Trump after her passport gender marker was changed, Trump’s bizarre comments about “corner stores,” his giant self-glorifying arch, and a few other stories that capture just how unhinged and surreal this political moment has become.0:00 Trump claims Iran agreed to everything4:25 Iran says no -- Hormuz still restricted, with tolls and Iranian control6:51 Ships turn back, checkpoints remain, and Trump’s “open strait” claim falls apart10:00 Iran rejects sending enriched uranium abroad10:06 Iran rejects Trump’s claim of an indefinite nuclear freeze11:50 US blockade stays in place, and Iran threatens to shut Hormuz again13:00 Trump’s reported $20 billion cash-for-uranium hypocrisy15:00 Trump attacks the Pope, but his own argument backfires18:13 USS Gerald R. Ford heads back to the region19:08 Traders place a massive bet on falling oil20:58 Sean Hannity says he’s leaving the Catholic Church23:27 Tucker Carlson floats whether Trump is the antichrist27:17 Bessent claims people secretly feel good about the economy28:23 Trump denies gas prices are above $430:15 Spirit Airlines seeks emergency help over fuel costs30:44 House Democrats probe Jared Kushner’s Middle East role31:08 Caitlyn Jenner appeals to Trump over passport gender marker33:09 Trump’s lawsuit against his own IRS gets even weirder35:28 Trump gets confused by the phrase “corner store”41:04 Trump says his giant arch will commemorate himself41:50 UFO-linked scientist death mystery and other unexplained cases This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sue, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll get into a bizarre and ugly convergence of war, politics, and religion. I’ll talk about Trump claiming Iran has agreed to hand back what he called the “nuclear dust” buried underground, while his administration keeps escalating the rhetoric around the war. And I’ll cover the increasingly surreal effort by Trumpworld to cast Trump as a kind of messianic figure -- from Trump’s own Jesus imagery to Pete Hegseth delivering an actual press conference sermon comparing Trump to Christ and the media to the Pharisees. I’ll also dig into Trump’s escalating attacks on Pope Leo, and the broader hypocrisy of all of this. Trump has been attacking the pope for criticizing the war and even framed it as part of his own political mandate, while Speaker Mike Johnson absurdly suggested the pope doesn’t understand just war doctrine. Meanwhile, Pope Leo responded in moral and sweeping terms, condemning those who manipulate religion and the name of God for military, political, and economic ends. (Yeah, wonder who that is?) I’ll also get into the bomb threat against the home of the pope’s brother, and why the climate Trump is helping create matters. Then I’ll widen out to the broader international fallout. I’ll cover the report that Europe has only about six weeks of jet fuel left, the data showing that most ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz since April 13 were affiliated with Iran, and the report that Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target US bases in the Middle East. I’ll also touch on Trump’s latest vanity-project spectacle -- a gigantic 250-foot arch planned for northern Virginia that even sympathetic architecture voices think is ridiculous. So it’s a show about war, propaganda, religious manipulation, global consequences, and the madness of Trump’s political moment.• 2:41 - Israel-Hezbollah truce and what it means for Lebanon• 3:17 - Trump says Iran will hand back the “nuclear dust”• 4:23 - Trump escalates his attacks on Pope Leo• 5:31 - Hegseth compares Trump to Jesus and the press to Pharisees• 12:19 - Pope Leo’s rebuke of war, tyranny, and weaponized religion• 19:17 - Trump administration cuts Catholic Charities contract for migrant children• 20:45 - Mike Johnson bizarrely lectures the pope on just war doctrine• 24:11 - Bomb threat at Pope Leo’s brother’s home• 28:36 - Europe’s jet fuel warning and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz• 28:59 - Report that Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target US bases• 29:22 - Trump’s gigantic northern Virginia arch plan• 31:05 - Russia’s latest large-scale strike on Ukraine• 31:51 - Trump makes a surprisingly normal vaccine-related personnel pick• 34:05 - Viewer discussion on AI propaganda, viral Trump memes, and who’s really making them• 53:14 - Viewer Q&A: Pam Bondi, Congress, Epstein fallout, Iran bargaining, and 2028 chatter This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the growing confusion -- and possible deception -- around Trump’s war with Iran. Trump is suddenly talking as if the war is already over, even while the US is sending thousands more troops into the region and keeping up a blockade that could still trigger a much wider conflict. I’ll get into Iran’s latest warning about shutting down Persian Gulf transit if the blockade hits its ships, the reports that Tehran may be looking for a limited off-ramp in Hormuz, and the obvious contradiction at the center of all this: if the war is supposedly winding down, why does everything on the ground look like it could be escalating instead? I’ll also walk through Trump’s latest barrage of lies, contradictions, and reckless rhetoric -- from his new claim that Iran was somehow just two weeks away from a nuclear weapon, to his bizarre comments about China, cyberattacks, and the Strait of Hormuz, to the fact that he keeps inventing new justifications for the war after the fact. And it’s not just Iran. We’re seeing signs of broader military instability too, including reports about Pentagon planning around Cuba, fresh concern over North Korea’s nuclear capacity, and more evidence that Trump’s foreign policy is making the US look erratic, untrustworthy, and dangerous even to countries that used to rely on us. And then I’ll broaden it out to the larger political picture -- because this isn’t only about war. It’s also about a president who mocks Jesus, attacks the Pope, shrugs off Chinese cyberattacks, keeps lying about the economy, and treats American promises like they’re meaningless from one day to the next. I’ll get into the fallout abroad, including anger from Saudi Arabia, Italy, Hungary, and beyond, plus the economic consequences here at home -- from weak tax refunds to summer travel fears and World Cup tourism worries. The bigger point is that under Trump, everything is unstable. And the world is reacting accordingly.0:00 Tax Day opener and why the tax system is absurd7:03 Iran -- is the war actually over, or is Trump setting up a new escalation?13:39 Hormuz blockade claims start falling apart17:34 Trump’s new “Iran had a nuke in two weeks” excuse22:04 North Korea’s nuclear buildup22:20 Europe’s postwar mine-clearing plan -- and Trump’s Greenland rant26:47 Trump mocks Jesus again30:31 Trump claims Iran’s neighbors never saw attacks coming31:45 Trump shrugs off China cyberattacks36:36 Trump says Xi sent him a “beautiful letter” on Iran36:54 Saudi Arabia says the era of relying on the US is over37:01 Italy, Meloni, and backlash against Trump40:15 Trump says the UK deal “can always be changed”44:40 JD Vance tells the Pope to “stop lying”47:26 Peter Magyar takes on Orban’s propaganda machine54:30 Jan. 6 pardons and a child exploitation case54:50 Daniel Dale fact-checks Trump’s Fox interview56:05 Meloni on Ukraine as a moral and strategic fight56:14 Vance boasts about cutting off Ukraine57:01 Trump reveals he has no real economic agenda1:00:22 World Cup tourism hit by inflation, war, and anti-American sentiment1:03:52 Tax Day reality -- Trump promised $1,000, people got about $3501:04:09 Russia threatens Europe again, and nobody cares1:04:14 John Eastman gets disbarred1:05:16 Pentagon war planning for Cuba1:11:29 More questions about the Hormuz blockade and the ships that got through1:09:24 Hungary, CPAC, and foreign money into the MAGA world This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump went on Fox and referred to the Iran war in the past tense, saying “it’s over.” But if it’s over, then why are thousands of new US troops arriving in the region? Why are we still talking about what happens in the next round of negotiations? Either he’s telling the truth, and just told Iran he’s done fighting, handing them a huge victory in the negotiations, or he’s planning to blow the hell out of Iran, and is lying as misdirection, something he does a lot.That same pattern showed up in the Administration’s shifting story about Iran itself. The Pentagon says no Iranian-linked ships have been allowed in or out since the blockade began, yet maritime data shows multiple Iranian or Iranian-linked vessels departing the Strait of Hormuz. So which is it?And then there’s Trump’s latest justification for the war: Suddenly Trump is claiming that Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear weapon. Sure, Jan. Mind you, Trump had already claimed months earlier that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” and would never come back. So which fantasy are we supposed to believe? That it was destroyed beyond repair, or that it was racing toward a bomb month’s later? The reasons keep changing because six or so weeks into the war, Trump still doesn’t know why we’re there.Trump also shrugged last night at reported Chinese cyberattacks with an “it is what it is” attitude, while also claiming Xi wrote him a beautiful letter promising not to arm Iran, and then turning around and sounding like he’s threatening China militarily anyway. Yeah, no dementia there. He veers from Iran to Greenland, from geopolitics to religious trolling, posting bizarre Jesus imagery while his own scandals hang over him. JD Vance lectures the Pope about theology, which is exactly as ridiculous as it sounds.And Trump just warned that even a trade deal with the UK “can always be changed,” effectively admitting that no one should trust the word of this government. Trump’s mendaciousness isn’t just about one war, one lie, or one outburst. It’s about what happens when the United States becomes known as a country whose commitments are temporary, whose explanations are disposable, and whose leaders treats growing instability as a virtue.A similar pattern is happening on the domestic side: Asked about the economy, Trump boasts about stock indexes, and brushes off rising oil prices, suggesting prices aren’t high at all! Then on tax day, today, Trump’s promised payoff to taxpayers turns out to be a fraction of what Trump promised us. The lies, the confusion, the downward spiral continue. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you sharon quinn, Mina D’Ambrosio, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’ll walk through the latest escalation in the Iran war, starting with the US blockade of Iranian ports using roughly 10,000 troops, more than a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft -- and the claim that no ships made it through, with several turned back. I’ll look at the strange contradiction in the US position: the Navy says it isn’t escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Washington is still telling commercial shipping that the passage is safe. And I’ll get into Trump claiming new talks with Iran could restart in two days, even as Europe is reportedly discussing a postwar coalition to help reopen shipping lanes -- possibly without the US.I’ll also cover the growing economic fallout. CNN reports wholesale inflation in the US has climbed to 4%, the highest annual rate in three years, driven in part by rising energy costs. The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that oil prices still may not reflect how serious the threat is if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted. And as Economist reporter Gregg Carlstrom points out, even if Iranian oil stops going to China entirely, China will just buy from somewhere else -- which means tighter global supply and higher prices for everyone else.Then I’ll turn to the political and cultural chaos swirling around the broader story -- from Orban, Serbia, Slovakia, and the Kremlin’s shifting posture, to JD Vance telling the Pope to stay in his lane on morality. I’ll also cover Trump’s new feud with Giorgia Meloni after she defended the Pope, the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Republican congressman Tony Gonzalez amid a new sexual assault allegation against Swalwell, Turkey putting LGBT activists on trial for the supposedly "obscene" behavior of kissing, a USDA Easter email that sounds more like government-sponsored evangelism, Ukraine reportedly capturing an enemy position using only robotic systems and drones, and one of the weirdest stories of the day -- the senior FEMA official who claims he was teleported to a Waffle House.7:45 - I cover the US blockade of Iranian ports and what it means for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz8:56 - I get into the Navy saying it isn’t escorting ships, while also telling vessels the strait is safe10:07 - I discuss Trump claiming Iran talks may restart in two days10:20 - I look at the reported European plan for a postwar coalition to reopen shipping11:43 - I cover rising oil prices, wholesale inflation, and why energy markets may still be underpricing the danger15:13 - I discuss Viktor Orban’s loss in Hungary and the broader regional implications17:13 - I get into the Orban-Serbia-Slovakia axis and the political ties behind it18:24 - I cover the Kremlin saying it and Orban were never really friends21:01 - I dig into the latest Trump-Pope fight and why Vance saying the Pope should stick to morality is absurd38:04 - I cover Meloni criticizing Trump’s attack on the Pope and the backlash in Italy39:49 - I discuss the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzalez amid scandal42:00 - I cover Turkey putting LGBT activists on trial over same-sex affection in public43:19 - I discuss Brooke Rollins’ Easter email to USDA staff and the bigger church-state problem49:07 - I cover Zelenskyy’s announcement that Ukrainian robots and drones captured a position without infantry50:11 - I discuss Andrew Harnik’s award-winning photo of Trump while a man collapsed nearby in the Oval Office55:49 - I cover the bizarre story of Trump’s FEMA official who claims he can teleport to Waffle House59:20 - I wrap up the news and shift into audience Q&A and dog update This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you M Hope, Teri D, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’m covering the complete chaos around Trump’s supposed Iran ceasefire, because at this point it barely qualifies as a ceasefire at all. Iran is still attacking Arab neighbors including Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain, while Israel is still hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz also still isn’t really open, despite Trump claiming otherwise. Iran says it won’t reopen it fully yet, may only allow limited passage even after that, and is now talking about controlling access, charging tolls, and forcing ships to register with the Iranian military. Meanwhile, there still appears to be no formal written ceasefire document at all.I’m also getting into the sheer absurdity of Trump’s shifting explanations for what deal even exists. First he claimed Iran sent demands and he agreed to most of them. Then the Iranians publicly floated a brutal ten-point list including reparations, sanctions relief, control of Hormuz, and a full US troop withdrawal from the Middle East. Then the White House said that plan was garbage and never accepted. Then Trump said there’s some other secret ceasefire that only he knows about. JD Vance claimed there were multiple Iranian plans causing confusion. At the same time, Trump is floating bizarre new ideas like a joint US-Iran tolling venture in Hormuz, claiming Iran may have agreed to recover buried uranium with the US, while also threatening giant tariffs on countries that arm Iran and separately hinting at sanctions relief. It’s incoherent, and none of it looks stable.And then beyond Iran, I’m covering a broader pattern of instability and extremism in Trumpworld. There were three big elections last night that showed major swings toward Democrats, even where Republicans still held on. Trump is also reportedly discussing possible steps away from NATO and moving US troops based on which allies he considers “good” or “bad.” On top of that, there’s a stunning report that Trump’s Pentagon threatened the Vatican in a closed-door confrontation, and another report that Trump wants to take money earmarked for the National Endowment for the Humanities and use it for a monument to himself near Arlington. So the larger theme tonight is not just war abroad, but a presidency that looks increasingly erratic, reckless, and completely untethered.0:02:37 - I open with why Trump’s Iran ceasefire is already falling apart0:04:09 - Iran attacks Arab neighbors and a key Saudi oil pipeline even after the ceasefire0:05:11 - Israel and Hezbollah keep fighting, and Lebanon becomes the first big ceasefire dispute0:06:44 - Iran’s alleged 10-point demand list and why it looks like Trump agreed to something awful0:07:46 - Trump melts down at CNN after Iran’s demands go public0:09:49 - Karoline Leavitt tries to walk it back and JD Vance adds a second, conflicting explanation0:11:26 - Trump claims there’s a different secret ceasefire nobody else knows about0:15:05 - Did Trump just hand Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz?0:16:39 - Iran’s reported plan to let only a dozen ships through and charge massive tolls0:18:52 - Whether Iran can legally close or control Hormuz under international law0:22:10 - The $2 million toll idea and Trump floating a joint US-Iran revenue scheme0:24:15 - Even Fox News undercuts Trump’s claim that Iran accepted his 15-point plan0:27:27 - Trump’s new claims about buried uranium and Iran giving up enrichment0:28:58 - Three big elections and why the swings toward Democrats matter0:32:36 - Trump’s latest NATO drama and what it means for Europe0:35:41 - The stunning report that Trump Pentagon officials threatened the Vatican0:38:49 - Trump’s plan to take NEH money and build a monument to himself near Arlington0:44:36 - Off-script: oil prices rebound and why markets may be waking up to how shaky this ceasefire really is. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Complete and utter chaos, as Donald Trump claims Iran has caved, the ceasefire is in effect, and the Strait of Hormuz is open. None of this is true.There is still massive fighting going on. Iran just attacked four Arab neighbors. The Strait of Hormuz is closed for the foreseeable future. And even when it reopens, Iran says maybe it’ll let ten ships through over the next two weeks. Maybe not. Normally, 80 to 100 ships a day go through. Oh, and Iran now says it’ll charge a toll. Can you smell the victory?As for the ceasefire, it’s a mess. Iran attacked Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain this morning. It also attacked a key Saudi oil pipeline running from the Gulf to the Red Sea, basically Saudi Arabia’s escape hatch around Iran. Israel continues to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says if Israel keeps hitting Hezbollah, then Iran won’t agree to the ceasefire. Israel says Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire because Hezbollah never agreed to it.Meanwhile, Trump claimed last night that Iran sent back ten demands, and that he was basically fine with most of them, which is why the ceasefire supposedly went into effect. But he also said Iran had better open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally. Then Iran released its demands publicly, and said, fine, here’s what Trump just agreed to. They included full US reparations, lifting all sanctions, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, and a full US troop withdrawal from the Middle East.Trump’s people then claimed the list was fake. Trump attacked CNN. Brendan Carr, that MAGA troll, threatened CNN too, even though he has no jurisdiction over CNN. But it wasn’t fake. CNN got it from the Iranians, and Iran published the demands. They’re real. They’re horrific. So did Trump agree to most of them? Who knows.Then Trump put out his own fifteen demands, and claimed, no, no, no, I meant Iran agreed to my demands. Iran said no, it didn’t. Even Fox News walked through Trump’s demands on air and kept saying Iran hadn’t agreed to any of it.What a mess.And it gets worse. Iran says it’s not actually reopening the Strait of Hormuz at all, at least not yet. And even then, it’s not exactly an unconditional reopening when it happens, which Trump promised us. To wit: Iran now says it’ll charge a toll, two million dollars a ship or a dollar a barrel. And every ship has to register with the Iranian military, or it will be destroyed. And it may not reopen for another day or two. And when it does, maybe Iran will allow ten ships over two weeks. Usually it’s 80 to 100 a day.This is a disaster. Before we invaded, the Strait of Hormuz was open to everybody. Nobody got charged. It was free transit through one of the world’s most important waterways.So ,Trump gets asked about Iran’s outrageous claim that it now controls the strait and will charge tolls. And he says this morning, yeah, yeah, maybe the US and Iran will both charge a toll and split the money! So now the US is partnering with Iran to pirate a global shipping lane and split the profits. Our new BFF, the gay ayatollah.Trump didn’t just TACO. He caved on everything. This is one of the biggest American military defeats in history. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I cover the latest chaos in Trump’s handling of the Iran war, starting with the rescue of a missing US servicemember and the extraordinary amount of sensitive detail Trump and his team are now publicly revealing about the mission. That’s not just loose talk. It potentially exposes methods, capabilities, and vulnerabilities while US pilots are still flying over Iran and similar rescue scenarios could happen again. I also get into Trump threatening the media outlet that reported the missing airman story, demanding the source and suggesting a reporter could be jailed. That’s authoritarian nonsense on its face, and it’s even more disturbing in the middle of an active war.I also break down Trump’s increasingly unhinged public messaging on Iran. Over the weekend he was threatening to “liberate” the country on one timeline, then another, then posting a profanity-laced Easter message about power plants, bridges, and the Strait of Hormuz, before delivering Iran remarks from the White House while standing next to the Easter Bunny. At the same time, he openly says he’d like to seize Iran’s oil but can’t because Americans want the war to end. He also claims the US sent guns to Iranian protesters through the Kurds, then complains the Kurds kept them. And while Trump insists the war could be over in days, the supposed Iranian concession he’s hinting at sounds suspiciously like a recycled version of the Obama-era nuclear position he spent years attacking.Beyond Iran, I also cover Trump’s latest attacks on NATO, which he now says he never needed because the alliance was merely being “tested,” along with his bizarre claim that NATO’s problems somehow “began with Greenland.” Then there’s the surreal moment where he tells little kids his autograph is worth $25,000 and segues into an autopen rant about Biden. I also hit several other major stories tonight: the Serbian false-flag allegation that appears to be unraveling, ICE detaining the newlywed wife of a US soldier training to deploy, and Zelenskyy’s highly significant visit to Damascus. And at the end of the show, we shift gears and track Artemis. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Sally, Sue, Nelson Garcia, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On today’s show, I’ll talk first about Trump’s speech last night, and why it seems to have made things worse, not better. Instead of calming markets or reassuring the public, Trump basically hinted that this war could go on for a long time, while offering little real clarity about the endgame. And the fallout was immediate: oil prices jumped, the stock market initially fell, and traders clearly took his comments as a sign that this conflict is getting deeper, more expensive, and more dangerous. I’ll also break down the economic shock that’s now starting to hit. West Texas crude surged, Brent jumped, and the real-world price for physical oil shipments reportedly shot above $140, the highest since 2008. Gas prices were already high, and there are now warnings they could rise sharply in the next two weeks, with diesel climbing even more. Trump’s war is about to become a direct hit on the American economy. Then I’ll get into the broader fallout inside Trumpworld and across the country: the administration changing its story again about why this war is being fought, reports that top officials were caught off guard by how hard Iran hit back, new signs that even Republican voters are getting uneasy, and the larger question of whether Trump and his team actually understood what they were unleashing. After that, I’ll move into the rest of the day’s chaos, but the heart of today’s show is Trump’s speech, the fallout from it, and the rising oil prices that may end up defining this moment politically and economically.Here is today's show:0:00 Intro and setting up the show2:13 Pam Bondi fired and the Epstein fallout4:07 Trump’s speech last night and the immediate market reaction4:45 Hegseth pushes out Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George7:41 Why “dated Brent” matters more than futures right now8:41 Why Trump’s speech spooked the oil market19:06 Trump claims the US won’t need oil through the Strait of Hormuz21:33 Iran’s Hormuz threat and the new toll plan23:17 GasBuddy warns gas and diesel could jump higher25:42 Trump says war costs mean cuts to child care, Medicaid, and Medicare33:18 Trump’s coming budget fight: more defense, less domestic spending34:30 Rubio shifts the war rationale yet again35:14 Susie Wiles worries Trump is getting a sugarcoated view of the war38:00 Report says top Trump officials were caught off guard by Iran’s response41:28 Ground beef prices hit a record high41:49 New CNN poll shows cracks among Republicans on the war42:36 Trump mocks Macron43:15 Trump says he doesn’t have to follow the Presidential Records Act44:10 Alex Jones says Kash Patel may be next44:28 Trump’s presidential library as hotel and Qatar plane monument47:54 FEMA official claims he can teleport48:30 Matt Gaetz and the alien-breeding story49:35 Paula White compares Trump to Jesus50:44 Viewer Q&A on religion, politics, and Trump1:07:23 Hagiography tangent and wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

On tonight’s show, I do something a little different and bring on Tasting History’s Max Miller for a live conversation about food, history, and the weird ways the two overlap.We start with how he built the channel, how The Great British Bake Off helped pull him into baking, and how that eventually turned into a career recreating recipes from centuries or even millennia ago. From there we get into his trips with fans to Jordan and Egypt, the history he experiences through travel, and why food ends up being one of the best ways to understand how people actually lived.Then the conversation gets into the really fun part: the food itself. We talk about garum, the ancient fermented fish sauce that sat at the center of Roman cooking, along with some of the grosser things he’s made, including jellyfish and boiled leather. We get into historic pumpkin cheesecake, long pepper, why old recipes are maddeningly vague, and how so much of pre-modern cooking was written by and for people who already knew what they were doing. That leads into a broader discussion of forgotten dishes, early chili, Welsh rarebit, and the challenge of figuring out what people in places like ancient Babylon or even prehistoric Europe were actually eating.The last part of the interview turns into a really interesting conversation about how taste changes over time. We talk about pastry “coffins” used for preservation, misconceptions people have about ancient food, the infamous Japanese ration balls that clearly did not impress him, and why some cultures treated recipes almost like state secrets. Then we get into something I always love: the way ingredients, technique, flour, sugar, pizza, chocolate, and even measuring cups all evolve over time. It ends up being a smart, funny conversation about history, but also about how much of what we think of as timeless food is actually the product of constant change.This was a really fun interview. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On this show, I lead with a judge finally slamming the brakes on Trump’s absurd White House ballroom project and reminding everyone that the White House does not belong to him. Then I turn to the Iran war, where the bigger story is that Trump now seems ready to declare victory and walk away even if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively in Iran’s hands. That matters because he keeps pretending Hormuz does not affect the US economy, while gas prices jump again, diesel surges, and oil markets keep whipping around based on whatever comes out of his mouth that day.From there, I get into the international and military fallout. Italy, Spain, and France are increasingly refusing to help, which tells you something about how isolated this operation is becoming. There’s also growing talk of a possible US ground move tied to buried Iranian uranium, and former General Mark Hertling warns that if Trump pushes Marines onto Kharg Island, they could be sitting ducks. I also cover Iran’s threats against major US companies, Karoline Leavitt’s stunning admission that top Iranian officials were killed because they lied in negotiations, and reports that the Pentagon is looking at anti-drone laser deployments in Washington.Then I pivot to the domestic side of the chaos. New polling shows Trump’s standing with independents is historically awful. NBC reports ICE may station agents outside Marine graduations to identify undocumented relatives. The Army suspends the Kid Rock helicopter aircrew. Trump quietly removes Russians from sanctions lists. Rubio goes after birthright citizenship. A judge backs Trump’s demand for records from Penn, and the show closes with a run through some of the weirder stories surrounding Trumpworld, including the look of his presidential library and the bizarre Kristi Noem report. The through-line is the same everywhere: chaos, overreach, and a government acting like rules are optional. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Tina Kimber, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I’m covering how the war in Iran keeps expanding while the stated US goals keep shifting. Trump is now openly threatening to blow up Iran’s desalination plants and other civilian infrastructure, even as reports suggest the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of possible ground operations and a much broader phase of the war. I’ll also get into the latest signals that Washington is still trying to negotiate, while at the same time changing the public rationale for the conflict yet again.I’m also looking at how the war is widening across the region and beyond. That includes the growing threat around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthis’ formal entry into the conflict, the risks to shipping and energy markets, and the rising economic fallout from oil and jet fuel spikes. I’ll also cover reports that Iran struck US planes in Saudi Arabia, that American service members were wounded, that Russia may have provided satellite help before the attack, and that cracks are now showing inside NATO and among US allies over support for the war.And I’ll finish with the domestic political fallout, which is getting worse for Trump. New polling shows his numbers sinking, including on inflation, jobs, tariffs, immigration, and the Iran war itself, while Republicans are reportedly still considering cutting health care spending to help cover the costs. I’ll also touch on the humanitarian toll, including reports that a new US missile killed civilians in Iran, and then wrap with several other major stories in the news tonight, from immigration and tariffs to a strange Army helicopter incident and Trump officials rushing to dig up old FBI files on political enemies. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show focused on reports that the Pentagon is considering a much bigger escalation against Iran, including a possible “final blow” involving ground troops, bombing, and strategic islands, and why that looks less like an endgame than a recipe for wider war. I also covered Trump’s contradictory claims about the war and negotiations, rising gas and oil prices, inflation risk, attacks on NATO, possible diversion of Ukraine weapons to the Middle East, sinking poll numbers, and a long list of other Trump scandals and side stories, from TSA funding and Venezuela trading questions to Michael Flynn, Ukraine, private deportation jets, and the gold bust at Mar-a-Lago.Main show* 0:06:18 Trump postpones his Iran bombing deadline again, this time to April 6, and I break down why the “open the Strait or we bomb power plants” line is so dangerous.* 0:11:18 Trump’s tanker claim starts falling apart as Bloomberg reports there’s no evidence the ships he referenced even transited the Strait.* 0:11:53 The stock market drops 1.7%, its biggest fall since the war began, while oil starts rising again.* 0:12:20 Axios reports the Pentagon is weighing a “final blow” against Iran, including ground troops, bombing, and possibly Kharg Island.* 0:19:17 Reports that Russia may be sending drones to Iran, and why trusting Moscow here is absurd.* 0:19:53 Trump claims the war is “way ahead of schedule,” even though his own timeline doesn’t support it.* 0:22:42 Republicans look at cutting health care spending, including Obamacare, to help pay for the war.* 0:23:16 A Republican senator reportedly tells Semafor the operation is a predictable clusterf*ck and may require ground troops plus diplomacy.* 0:24:01 Gas, oil, and inflation all move higher as the economic hit from the war grows.* 0:26:00 Trump puts his signature on US currency while the country is at war and the economy is under pressure.* 0:29:00 Trump attacks NATO again and lies that NATO never came to America’s aid.* 0:32:00 The Pentagon reportedly considers diverting Europe-paid Ukraine aid to the Middle East.* 0:33:00 New Fox poll shows Trump’s approval falling to 41%.* 0:34:01 Gulf states may pull back promised investments as the regional economic fallout worsens.* 0:35:17 In other news: Senate Republicans push emergency action to keep TSA funded.* 0:35:35 Senate Democrats raise questions about possible Trump-related insider trading around Venezuelan bonds.* 0:39:01 The Justice Department payout to Michael Flynn and what it says about Trump-era corruption.* 0:43:00 Trump reportedly demands Ukraine give up eastern Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees.* 0:45:00 Why Russia is losing badly, despite Trump pressuring Ukraine to concede territory.* 0:47:00 Why America’s allies need to stop pretending Trump would really defend them.* 0:49:15 New report says Trump is deporting migrants on private jets at enormous cost.* 0:49:22 A gold bust of Trump appears at Mar-a-Lago.Post-show / hang / Q&A* 0:49:35 TikTok AI glitches and starts auto-generating “give them a shout out” prompts.* 0:52:14 Greek embassy event, meeting people there, and spotting Alex Marquardt.* 0:54:45 Back pain update and steroid injection.* 0:55:07 “No Kings” rally and DC crowd concerns during cherry blossom season.* 0:56:58 Trump’s “Ireland/island” confusion and Diego Garcia.* 1:00:29 More on Trump’s vanity projects, including the currency signature issue.* 1:03:54 TSA funding follow-up and what it says about Trump’s motives.* 1:09:34 Brief embassy food talk.* 1:10:13 Mention of the Iran AI baby video about Trump. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Here is today’s Iran War Update, exclusively for Substackers. Make sure to join me for tonight’s live show at 6pm ET, and for you paid subs, I’ve got a special hangout for you on Saturday at 11am ET. Thanks, JOHNTrump’s Iran war keeps getting sold to the public like it’s some kind of clean, controlled operation that’s moving “ahead of schedule.” That’s bull. The latest reporting says the Pentagon is looking at a so-called final crushing blow against Iran that could include ground troops, a massive bombing campaign, blocking Iranian oil exports, or even taking Kharg Island and other strategic islands. Okay, then what? If we go after Iran’s oil, they’ll go after everyone else’s oil. Saudi fields, Gulf infrastructure, shipping lanes, all of it. We already know how this works. And if the US tries to seize islands, what exactly is the plan after that? Are we permanently occupying them? Are our troops just sitting there as targets while Iran pounds them? And when we leave, what stops Tehran from going right back to choking the Strait of Hormuz? This is the same problem again and again with Trump’s wars: no serious endgame, just vibes, slogans, and the hope that brute force somehow solves the political problem it usually makes worse.And while that’s happening, Trump can’t even keep his own story straight. He says the war is “way ahead of schedule,” but his own timeline doesn’t show that at all. He says the Iranians are begging for a deal, then in the same breath says they’re blowing our negotiators off, and need to be threatened into seriousness. Pick one. Either they’re desperate to negotiate or they’re not.Meanwhile, the actual real-world consequences are piling up. Gas is now brushing up against four dollars a gallon nationally. Oil is surging. Inflation forecasts are rising. Iran is reportedly moving toward imposing new fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is basically a war-created toll booth on one of the most important waterways on earth. But Trump, in his usual fashion, says he’s surprised prices didn’t go up even more, because apparently he thinks the market is showing confidence in him. No, what the market is showing is stress. And the people paying for it are ordinary consumers.Then there’s the broader strategic mess. Trump is attacking NATO, again, absurdly claiming the alliance never came to America’s aid, when the one time Article 5 was invoked was after 9/11, on our behalf. And NATO came running to help us. He’s also diverting weapons that European countries bought for Ukraine, and redirecting them to the Middle East. That should tell you two things. First, he’s undercutting Ukraine, again. Second, this Iran operation is not going nearly as smoothly as he wants people to think, or they wouldn’t be scrambling for munitions. Even Republicans are describing the current situation as a predictable clusterf.And politically, the numbers are catching up with him. Even Fox has his approval at 41 percent, with independents and Latinos turning sharply against him. So this isn’t just a military gamble. It’s an economic gamble, a strategic gamble, and increasingly a political one too. And the bill, as usual, is getting handed to everybody else. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump keeps doing the same thing on Iran. He lies late in the day, the markets calm down, oil backs off a little, and then a few hours later we find out it was nonsense. That happened again with his ridiculous claim that Iran had given him some huge “gift” and that negotiations were going great. The “gift” turned out to be something the news already knew about: Iran had let a few tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That was not some major diplomatic breakthrough. It was not proof that Trump had things under control. It was spin. More accurately, it was market manipulation by messaging.And the deeper problem is that even the people Trump may be talking to in Iran may not actually be in charge. Axios reports the Iranian government is in chaos and struggling to communicate internally. That matters. Because if the regime itself is fragmented, then all of Trump’s bragging about progress becomes even more ridiculous. Progress with whom, exactly? Which faction? Which person? And do they actually have authority?Then you’ve got GOP Rep. Nancy Mace walking out of a classified Iran briefing today and saying she’s now even more opposed to US troops on the ground after what she heard. That is not the reaction of somebody who just got reassuring news. Maybe the most generous reading is that she wasn’t briefed on a ground invasion specifically, but on how badly things are going. The less generous reading is worse: that boots on the ground are being discussed because reopening the Strait of Hormuz may otherwise be impossible. Either way, it’s not good.The Washington Post then reports Trump has offered Iran a 15-point proposal that looks so extreme Iran is unlikely to accept it. That’s the part that worries me. Because Trump may be making impossible demands so he can pretend Iran “left him no choice.” If you pair that with reports of more ground-invasion US forces moving into place, it starts to look less like peace talks and more like stage-setting for escalation.And even if the US did something like seize Kharg Island or a strip of Iran’s coast to reopen the strait, then what? Robert Kelly laid this out well. How long do we stay? What happens when Iran comes back the minute we leave? What happens when Iranian forces start hammering those positions? Then we move farther inland. Then farther again. That’s mission creep. That’s how limited operations turn into open-ended wars.The White House isn’t helping. Karoline Leavitt went out there and basically said two opposite things in the same briefing. On the one hand, Iran supposedly recognizes it’s being crushed and is looking for an exit ramp. On the other hand, if Iran fails to understand that it has been defeated, Trump will hit it harder than ever. Which is it? Does Iran realizes it’s defeated or not? Those two claims don’t fit together. But that’s what happens when your briefing is built around spin and lies instead of the truth.And now NBC reports Trump is getting these curated little war montages from military officials, basically reels of American strikes and “stuff blowing up,” with comparatively little detail about Iranian actions. We even learned he reportedly wasn’t briefed promptly when US planes were hit at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. That’s insane. You cannot run a war like a toddler’s picture book. Keep it happy! Lives are at stake. And tens of billions of dollars are at stake. But once again, Trump is being managed emotionally, not informed seriously.The fallout is already here at home. Mortgage rates are back above 7 percent. Reuters has Trump getting crushed on cost of living, foreign policy, immigration, and the economy. Democrats are outperforming again in elections. And if this drags on, Larry Fink is warning about the possibility of much higher oil prices and a steep recession. So no, this is not “going great.” This looks like confusion, manipulation, and drift toward something far bigger than Trump is admitting. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Coming off last night’s news that the Trump administration has reportedly abandoned its original Iran war goals, today’s update only made the bigger point more obvious: This war is already shrinking politically even as the risks keep growing militarily.Remember what the administration originally claimed it wanted. Regime change. Permanent destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Now the goal is reportedly just reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That’s where we were before the invasion. So after all this, after the chaos, the deaths, the market panic, and the spike in gas prices, the new objective is basically to get back to the status quo ante. Which means, yes, this could have been achieved by not attacking Iran in the first place.And even that reduced goal may be slipping away. Former Trump officials are now openly saying Iran effectively controls the strait. If the US declared victory right now, Iran could turn around and act like it owns passage through one of the most important waterways on earth, reportedly even charging ships millions to pass through waters that are supposed to be international. That tells you how badly this has gone already.What makes it even crazier is that Trump is now reportedly talking about some kind of joint control of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. Think about how absurd that is. Before the war, nobody controlled it. It was an international waterway. Now, after launching a war, Trump may be preparing to reward Iran with partial control over a route that carries enormous shares of the world’s oil, natural gas, and other critical goods. That isn’t victory. That’s a huge concession. I thought we were winning. I thought a week ago nothing less than unconditional surrender would be accepted. So why are we now talking about giving half the Strait to Iran?At the same time, there are growing reports of major US troop and equipment movements into the region, while Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are reportedly urging Trump to finish the job and overthrow the Iranian government. But “finish the job” is doing a lot of work there. It means something much bigger. It means a ground invasion, not just more airstrikes. So on one side the White House appears to be testing a diplomatic endgame, even reportedly considering Iran’s parliamentary speaker as some kind of future partner or leader. On the other side, it’s still building up militarily. Trump is, as usual, all over the place. And probably lying, or just confused. Thus forever the TACO.The American public, meanwhile, seems a lot clearer than the White House. Polling shows the overwhelming priority for voters is ending the war as quickly as possible. Not open-ended escalation. End it.Then there’s the part that really stinks, but really isn’t a surprise. The Financial Times reports that traders placed about half a billion dollars in oil bets just minutes before Trump’s announcement about “productive” talks with Iran sent crude prices tumbling. CNN found similarly suspicious betting patterns on Polymarket, including a near-perfect win rate on large Iran-related bets. At some point, when we get our government and our country back, we are going to need such a massive investigation of all of this corruption.And the economic fallout is already here. Gas prices are still rising, oil is climbing again, and Americans are paying more because of this war. Add in a huge refinery explosion in Texas, which at minimum came at a deeply unnerving moment, and the whole picture gets uglier fast.Then there’s the rest of the day’s news, which somehow is its own separate parade of corruption and hypocrisy. Republicans had a deal with Democrats to fund TSA, and Trump killed it because he didn’t want a deal with Democrats, ever. The administration is reportedly considering inviting Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko to meet Trump. Hungary’s foreign minister casually admits he updates Russia after EU meetings. Ukraine blew apart a major Russian oil export hub, and Russia reportedly took more than 6,000 casualties in just four days of a failed offensive. Ukraine also says it has irrefutable evidence Russia is still feeding intelligence to Iran to help target US troops, even thought Trump said Putin promised he they didn’t and wouldn’t. Yeah, well they did.And because there is apparently no limit to the hypocrisy, Trump is publicly attacking mail voting this week while voting by mail himself this week.That’s where things stand. The war aims are shrinking. The danger is growing. The insiders may be cashing in. And the administration still has no coherent plan beyond improvisation, contradiction, and spin.Join me at 6pm ET for my regular nightly live show, covering Iran and the rest of the day’s new. Thanks for subscribing, JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you sharon quinn, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s Iran war update focuses on Trump’s increasingly incoherent Iran strategy, as he appears to swing back and forth between suggesting the war may be ending and signaling support for a possible land operation centered on Kharg Island. I walk through the military and political signs pointing toward escalation, including more Marines in the region, “boots on the ground” rhetoric, British base access, and warnings about a longer war. I also connect the conflict to its economic fallout at home, from rising gas and oil prices to inflation, fertilizer, and food costs, while also hitting Trump’s contradictions on ammo, Ukraine, Russia, and his growing fixation on personal vanity projects.Here are the topics covered:6:23 — More Marines are headed to the Middle East, raising fears that the US is moving closer to a ground war.9:38 — I explain the Strait of Hormuz on the map and why it matters for global oil and shipping.10:31 — Trump’s reported options: blockade Kharg Island or land Marines and take it.11:24 — Trump appears to flip-flop between preparing a ground invasion and suddenly claiming the war may be winding down.13:22 — Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will “open itself,” and I break down why that comment makes no sense.14:30 — Trump says he doesn’t want a ceasefire because you don’t do a ceasefire while “obliterating the other side.”15:00 — Trump reportedly says an amphibious landing on Kharg Island would be “simple” and relatively safe.15:25 — Axios reports the White House thinking: weaken Iran for a month, take Kharg Island, then use it as leverage in negotiations.18:56 — I explain why attacking Iran’s energy sector keeps leading Iran to retaliate against Gulf oil and gas infrastructure.20:52 — A Trump official starts laying the rhetorical groundwork for “boots on the ground,” despite Trump running against endless wars.22:22 — Britain agrees to let the US use British bases to strike Iranian targets tied to Hormuz.24:42 — Lindsey Graham wants to punish NATO countries that won’t help Trump’s Iran war.31:34 — Trump and Hegseth send mixed messages on ammunition shortages, while blaming Ukraine.33:02 — Gas prices hit $3.92, West Texas crude nears $98, and Brent climbs even higher.36:24 — I argue Trump is gaslighting the public about the economic damage, with oil up sharply since the invasion.39:24 — Markets are now pricing in higher inflation because of the war.41:35 — Goldman Sachs predicts $150 oil, while Saudi officials reportedly warn oil could hit $180 if Hormuz stays disrupted.44:54 — Iran threatens to target US and Israeli officials and military personnel in resorts and tourist centers.45:03 — Michele Tafoya tells Americans upset over gas prices to skip Starbucks and be patriots.45:28 — The US eases more Russia sanctions, Trump invites Lukashenko to Mar-a-Lago, and I connect oil, ammonia, fertilizer, and food prices.46:34 — Politico reports Moscow floated a quid pro quo: less Russian intel for Iran if the US cuts intel help to Ukraine.47:21 — Stephanie Ruhle says Trump trusts Putin more than Zelensky and more than America’s European allies.47:46 — I push back on Trump’s false claim that Ukraine has done nothing to help stop Iranian drones in the Middle East.50:00 — German Chancellor Merz says MAGA’s values are not Germany’s understanding of democracy.50:49 — Treasury reportedly moves ahead with Trump coins, despite legal questions.51:38 — Trump reportedly wants his face on Mount Rushmore, his birthday made a federal holiday, and a monument to himself in Washington.1:03:15 — I reflect on why so many Americans still support Trump and the broader pull of authoritarian politics.1:13:40 — In the closing discussion, I return to the possibility that Trump is still preparing some kind of land invasion.1:14:42 — Russian propaganda now includes children singing about not needing the internet after shutdowns.Have a great finally-warmer weekend, everybody. JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit aravosis.substack.comTrump keeps drifting toward a wider war with Iran, and the pattern is getting harder to ignore. Axios reports he’s considering either a blockade of, or even a land move against, Kharg Island, which handles most of Iran’s oil exports. That matters because we already know what happens when Trump or Israel hits Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates by going after Gulf energy infrastructure, and US prices skyrocket. Trump approved an attack on Iran’s gas sector, Iran answered by hitting major facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and now the world is staring at years of disruption, higher energy prices, and more instability. So the question isn’t whether Iran would respond. The question is why Trump keeps acting shocked when it does.And the White House rhetoric is getting uglier. One source described the plan as weakening Iran for another month, taking the island, and then using that leverage in negotiations. Fine. But leverage cuts both ways. If Iran answers by blowing up more Saudi oil, more Qatari gas, or wider Gulf infrastructure, then suddenly America isn’t squeezing Iran. Iran is squeezing the global economy. That’s the part these people keep pretending not to understand. You don’t casually play games with the energy arteries of the Middle East and expect no military, and then economic, blowback.Next up, boots on the ground…

Thank you Julia D Lanford, Sue, Kevin Ellmer, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Here's the entire show, broken down:Chapter list:0:00 Intro / getting live setup finished5:33 F-35 hit over Iran forces emergency landing6:26 Iran hits Qatar gas facility, energy shock begins8:05 Oil, Brent, WTI and gas price reaction8:39 Trump knew about the strike, then denied it13:31 Arab governments furious with Trump15:08 Trump considering more troops in the region16:00 Strait of Hormuz map and military choke points20:02 Europe sees no realistic Hormuz plan22:45 Hegseth says Americans should pray to Jesus24:52 Pentagon war costs and inflation fallout30:23 Iran nuclear claims and Trump’s shifting story32:27 Reuters/Ipsos poll on the Iran war33:22 Houthi threat to Red Sea and Saudi energy exports34:30 Europe’s weak response and widening US-EU split34:56 Politico poll: allies trust China over Trump’s US36:33 Trump lifts some Iran sanctions to lower oil prices37:03 Belarus sanctions, fertilizer and inflation risk39:14 Denmark, Greenland and Europe preparing for Trump42:41 Iran executes 19-year-old wrestler Saleh Mohammadi45:27 Yahoo/YouGov: cost of living and Trump collapse46:35 Trump tanks with independents47:55 Fox News warns inflation is getting worse50:27 Trump Jr. rare earths deal raises corruption questions51:10 Push to put Trump’s face on a gold coin53:24 Trump lies again about Ukraine aid and US ammo55:15 Trump’s Pearl Harbor crack to Japan’s prime minister59:08 Notes end, live discussion begins59:12 Is there any real diplomatic way out of this war?1:01:17 Trump’s history of bizarre comments to allies1:08:29 Did Israel force Trump’s hand on Iran?1:11:01 How does this war actually end?1:11:32 What if Iran keeps Hormuz closed anyway?1:12:13 The “imminent threat” claim falls apart1:14:03 Biden team previously said no to the same pressure1:15:08 Endless Middle East war, built on lies This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you NJ McGuigan, Tina Kimber, Julia D Lanford, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Trump and his allies keep pretending this Iran war is controlled and strategic. It isn’t. Israel killed Iran’s intelligence minister and hit the South Pars gas field, shared with Qatar. That’s not a narrow strike. It’s a hit on Gulf energy infrastructure, and once you start playing with Gulf oil and gas, you’re gambling with the global economy.Iran’s threats against energy sites in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE show how serious this is. If Gulf energy production gets hit, this becomes a worldwide energy shock. Oil spikes. Gas spikes. Shipping, fertilizer, plastics, airfare, and store prices all rise. That’s how inflation comes roaring back in the US.The military escalation is worsening too, with US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and even foreign conservatives warning Trump has no clear endgame. Meanwhile Russia benefits, Kushner is raising money in the region, and Republicans are still obsessing over virtually nonexistent undocumented voting while the real crisis spreads.Tonight’s show:00:00 Intro / housekeeping04:30 Israel kills Iran’s intelligence minister04:56 Israel strikes Iran’s South Pars natural gas facility05:28 Why hitting Gulf energy infrastructure is so dangerous06:00 Trump says maybe leave the Strait of Hormuz closed06:28 Why global oil prices still hit the US07:33 US gas prices surge as oil jumps08:12 Trump reportedly approved the Israeli strike on Iran’s energy sector08:55 Why Iran could retaliate by hitting Saudi, Qatari, Emirati, Kuwaiti, Omani, and Gulf energy sites10:00 The risk of a worldwide energy disaster10:49 Iraq loses major Iranian natural gas supply11:32 Why Qatar’s LNG exports are one of the biggest global vulnerabilities13:16 The war could end, but energy prices may stay high anyway14:02 Wall Street Journal reporting on Trump wavering over more strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure15:34 Why this war could trigger long-term inflation, not just an oil spike16:33 The political argument over opposing the war21:02 US bunker-buster strikes on Iranian missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz21:33 Trump’s “straight of Hormuz” comment22:13 How higher oil and gas prices would hit gasoline, fertilizer, plastics, flights, shipping, and consumer prices22:48 US global standing drops in international polling23:06 Germany’s far-right AfD leader criticizes Trump’s Iran strategy23:37 Russia expands intelligence-sharing and military cooperation with Iran24:39 Trump says he’s not afraid of Vietnam-style ground combat in Iran24:54 Jared Kushner conflict-of-interest questions while fundraising in the Middle East26:58 Belgium deploys troops to protect synagogues and Jewish schools27:32 The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates where they are28:03 Kim Jong-un wins 99.93% of the vote in North Korea28:35 CNN poll: 100% of MAGA supporters approve of Trump29:05 Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel threatens Trump and Marco Rubio29:45 Politico: Trump world wants to pull Russia away from China30:22 JD Vance heads to Hungary to help Viktor Orbán30:50 Federal judge says dismantling Voice of America was unlawful31:18 WSJ warns the SAVE Act could hurt Republicans politically32:05 Heritage voter fraud database shows only 10 undocumented voting cases in 40 years33:45 Q&A / open discussion begins38:39 Tulsi Gabbard, congressional testimony, and whether Iran posed an imminent threat41:08 Netanyahu death rumor debunked / nuclear war odds discussion42:10 Minesweepers, military readiness, and naval escalation questions45:08 Desalination plants as another possible target in a broader Gulf war47:37 Quick reaction to Illinois elections / Durbin seat chatter48:00 Theater review: As You Like It at the Folger / frustration with modernized Shakespeare50:27 Shakespeare authorship debate / Christopher Marlowe51:33 WHO preparing for a possible nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East53:09 Hamnet discussion55:48 Audience reactions to the movie Hamnet57:15 Rotten Tomatoes, movie reviews, and Roger Ebert58:23 Paul Mescal vs Pedro Pascal confusion59:55 Pedro Pascal background / Mandalorian discussion61:06 Italian language tangent / Q, C, and spelling63:05 Speaking Spanish in DC / translating for someone at the store63:55 Maltese language discussion67:12 US vs Europe time differences / daylight saving time confusion70:31 Working from home in Israel because of the war71:08 “Knock on wood” vs “touch wood” in English and French73:11 French grammar tangent on body parts and possessives75:30 Sign-off starts / tomorrow’s show time77:08 French Canadian / New Brunswick accent discussion79:00 Final goodbye This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Trump and his allies keep acting like this Iran war is controlled, strategic, and somehow headed toward a clean outcome. It is none of those things. Israel has now killed Iran’s intelligence minister and struck the South Pars gas field, which Iran shares with Qatar. That is not some narrow military skirmish. That is a direct hit on energy infrastructure at the heart of the Gulf. And once you start playing games with Gulf oil and gas, you are no longer just fighting Iran. You are gambling with the global economy.Iran’s response tells you exactly how serious this is. Tehran reportedly issued evacuation warnings tied to oil facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The White House reportedly approved Israel’s attack on Iran’s energy as a way to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Fine. But let’s think this through like adults. If Iran starts hitting Saudi, Qatari, Emirati, Kuwaiti, Omani, or broader Gulf energy infrastructure, this does not stay contained. This becomes a worldwide energy shock. The Wall Street Journal is already warning oil could head toward $110 a barrel after the South Pars strike. The real nightmare is not just a spike. It is a sustained disruption, especially if Qatar’s LNG exports get caught in the crossfire and energy production cannot return to prewar levels any time soon.And yes, Americans will feel it. We already are. Average US gas prices are now reportedly around $3.58 a gallon, up 31 percent in the last month, and US crude has jumped sharply as well. If the Strait of Hormuz stays under threat, then this goes far beyond what you pay at the pump. Oil goes up. Natural gas goes up. Fertilizer goes up. Plastics go up. Airfare goes up. Shipping costs go up. Then the price of nearly every product in the store goes up. That is how inflation comes roaring back. So when Trump muses a few hours ago about maybe just leaving the “straight” of Hormuz closed, as though this is some clever bit of tough talk, what he is really talking about is detonating prices across the US economy.The military side is escalating too. US Central Command says American forces used multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites near the Strait, targeting anti-ship cruise missiles that threatened international shipping. And now even some foreign conservatives are noticing. Germany’s far-right AfD leader Alice Weidel is warning that Trump appears to have entered this mission without a clear concept and without thinking through how it ends. When even Europe’s far-right is saying the war planning looks reckless, maybe that should set off a few alarms.Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly expanding intelligence-sharing and military cooperation with Iran, including satellite imagery and drone support, because of course it is. A prolonged US-Iran conflict benefits Moscow both militarily and economically. It drains American attention, destabilizes Western allies, and pushes energy prices higher. At the same time, the New York Times reports that Jared Kushner is trying to raise billions from Middle Eastern governments for his private firm while also serving as a kind of freelance regional negotiator for Trump. That is not just sleazy. It raises obvious questions about whether policy and private money are getting mixed together yet again.And while all of this is happening, Republicans are still obsessing over imaginary hordes of undocumented immigrants voting. The Wall Street Journal editorial board is warning that the SAVE Act could actually hurt Republicans by burdening exactly the kinds of voters in Trump’s coalition who may not have easy access to passports or birth certificates. And after more than 40 years and roughly 3 to 5 billion votes cast, Heritage’s own voter fraud database reportedly shows just 10 cases of undocumented immigrants voting. Ten. That is the scale of the “crisis.” So that is the broader picture right now: a reckless war strategy, rising global energy risk, mounting inflation danger at home, America’s standing abroad in decline, and a political movement still chasing fantasies while the real fire spreads. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Sally, Tim Wood, and many others for tuning into last night’s live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show is about the Iran war getting messier by the hour, and Trump looking less like he has a plan than like he has a problem. Israel reportedly killed Ali Larijani, a major Iranian security figure who, not long ago, was on the short list of people the US supposedly thought could help lead Iran one day. At the same time, Trump is again begging Europe to join his war, even after spending the past year insulting Europe, threatening allies, freezing them out of decision-making, and even rejecting British help when it was offered. Now Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis says Europe will not enter the war. So after boasting that Iran was already beaten, Trump is suddenly desperate for backup.We’re also learning more about how shaky and dishonest this whole thing looks behind the scenes. Reuters says Trump was briefed before the US strikes that Iran could retaliate against America’s Gulf allies, even though Trump later claimed nobody warned him. NBC reports the Pentagon has already prepared options for Trump to end the war if he chooses, but so far he has not. Trump’s National Counterterrorism Center director has now resigned in protest, blaming Israel for pressuring the US into the conflict, while NOTUS reports that the State Department had already fired its oil and gas experts months before the bombing started. Meanwhile, Trump keeps making things up, from threatening “treason” charges over media reports that did not even come from American outlets, to claiming some former president secretly backed his Iran bombing, which his own team is now scrambling to explain.And the costs are starting to show. Oil is up again, gas prices in the US keep climbing, and one of Trump’s top economic advisers basically admitted that consumer pain is not the administration’s priority. That matters because this war could hit everything from shipping to medicine, especially since India supplies nearly half of America’s generic drugs and depends on the Strait of Hormuz for critical materials. Iran is already allowing safe passage only for countries it considers friendly, and Iranian-backed militias are getting bolder, with a drone reportedly flying unchallenged through the US Embassy compound in Baghdad. Add in Trump postponing his China trip, Mike Johnson offering yet another incoherent excuse for the war, and Zelensky revealing that hundreds of Ukrainian air defense specialists are now in the Middle East helping counter Iranian drones, and the picture is clear: this is spreading, it is getting more dangerous, and the White House still does not seem willing to level with the public about any of it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

See you tonight at 6pm ET for my live Iran war coverage, and here’s the link to last night’s show if you missed it. Thanks, JOHNTrump’s Iran war keeps getting more reckless, more incoherent, and more dangerous. Israel says it killed Ali Larijani, one of the most senior Iranian officials still standing, even though Larijani had until recently been seen by some in Washington as a possible acceptable face for a post-regime Iran. Oops.Trump is also again begging Europe to join his war, which is amazing given that he spent the past year insulting Europe, threatening allies, mocking their militaries, and refusing to treat them like actual partners. Now that the war is not going according to plan, suddenly he wants help. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made clear today that Europe is not getting into this war. Trump bragged days ago that Iran was finished. Now he is looking around for somebody else to come clean up his mess. That is not “America First.” That is panic with a flag wrapped in the flag. The lying is getting worse too. Reuters reports Trump was briefed before the US strikes that Iran could retaliate against Gulf allies, then Trump went out and claimed yesterday that nobody could possibly have foreseen that risk. Please. That has been one of the most obvious dangers in this region for decades. NBC, meanwhile, reports military planners have already built regular off-ramps into the war planning in case Trump decides he wants out. And Iran is now selectively allowing safe passage for ships from countries it considers friendly, which is its way of reminding the world that it still has leverage, and can raise or lower the temperature whenever it wants.And yes, Americans are already paying for this war. Oil prices were up again this morning, US gasoline prices keep rising, and Trump’s own economic adviser Kevin Hassett actually said that a prolonged war would not disrupt the US economy much, aside from hurting consumers. Aside from hurting consumers! We are the consumers. That is the whole point. And it gets worse: nearly half of the generic prescriptions used in the US come from India, which relies on the Strait of Hormuz for critical imports and shipping. Since about 90% of prescriptions filled in the US are generics, this war does not just threaten your gas tank. It can hit your medicine cabinet too. In other news… A militia drone reportedly flew a reconnaissance mission through the US Embassy compound in Baghdad for nearly two minutes, unchallenged. Trump has now postponed his China trip because he does not want to be away during the war. Joe Kent, Trump’s MAGA-aligned director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest, blaming Israeli pressure for pushing the US into this war. And the administration is still threatening “treason” over media coverage it does not like while Trump spins bizarre stories about some former president secretly backing him. Bush says no. Clinton says no. Obama says no. So now Trump’s people are claiming it was Biden! Yeah, right — Trump called Biden for advice. Add in Mike Johnson’s latest word salad about “imminent threats,” and the pattern is obvious: this war was sold with spin, launched with ego, and is now being sustained with denial. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you PoutySum8 🐸, Tim Wood, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Here is tonight’s show, by time-stamp:12:05 US Troops Wounded in Iran Conflict Now Exceed 20014:34 Trump Claims Nobody Expected Iran Retaliation24:34 Trump Threatens NATO if Allies Refuse to Join War26:19 Trump Pushes for Coalition to Reopen Strait of Hormuz30:12 Can Trump Legally Withdraw the US from NATO?34:15 Trump Threatens China Over Strait of Hormuz Crisis34:21 Trump Admits US Gets Little Oil From the Persian Gulf40:12 Trump Threatens Iran’s Kharg Island and Oil Exports43:30 Axios: Iran War Could Drag On Until September44:16 Could Iran Force the US to Stay in the War?48:18 Senior Trump Aides Reportedly Doubt the War Strategy48:56 Axios: Trump Was “High on His Own Supply”49:28 Israel Running Critically Low on Missile Interceptors50:25 Trump Adviser David Sacks Calls for Iran War Off-Ramp51:15 Zelensky Says Russia Gave Iran Drones Used Against US Targets53:03 White House Pressed on Sending 5,000 Marines and Sailors54:15 US Pushes Disinformation About Iran’s New Leader58:21 Gas Prices Jump After Trump’s Iran Escalation58:40 Trump Energy Secretary Says Higher Oil Prices Are Good1:01:47 JD Vance Reverses Himself on Foreign Intervention1:02:51 Trump Says Taking Cuba Would Be “An Honor”1:03:23 FCC Threatens Broadcasters Over War Coverage1:04:43 Trump Reportedly Removes Olive Branch From US Coin Design1:05:42 Trump Claims Zelensky Is Harder to Deal With Than Putin1:05:49 Ukraine Launches Massive Drone Attack on Moscow1:05:52 Netanyahu Seeks Talks With Zelensky on Drone Defense1:06:34 Trump Publicly Reveals Rep. Neil Dunn’s Grim Prognosis1:09:22 What Is Trump’s Actual Endgame in the Iran War?1:12:54 Post-Show Chat: Tomorrow’s Show, Max Miller, and TikTok Plans This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Julia D Lanford, Sally, Kevin Ellmer, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show:* 05:50 — 6 US servicemembers killed in Iraq refueling plane crash; Operation Epic Fury death toll rises* 06:33 — Trump claims 1,700 Iranian sleeper cells are inside the US* 11:12 — Michigan synagogue truck attack suspect reportedly lost family in a Lebanon airstrike* 12:12 — JD Vance reportedly distancing himself from the war as 2028 politics kick in* 14:53 — Pentagon sends more warships and a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East* 16:27 — Hegseth’s absurd claim that the Strait of Hormuz is “safe”* 19:15 — Trump says the US doesn’t need Ukraine’s help on drone defense* 20:16 — US sends 10,000 Ukraine-developed interceptor drones to the Middle East* 22:51 — Vance tries blaming Biden for gas prices caused by Trump’s war* 28:35 — Trump says he’ll “feel it in my bones” when the Iran war should end* 29:42 — Report that Iran’s supreme leader was wounded / possibly disfigured* 30:02 — Hegseth says Iran’s leaders are “hiding” and “cowering,” despite public appearances* 30:20 — Trump loosens Russian oil sanctions to calm markets* 30:32 — CNN: Trump officials reportedly failed to plan for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz* 32:38 — NATO intercepts another Iranian ballistic missile over Turkey* 32:47 — Trump tells G7 leaders Iran is about to surrender; Iran says the opposite* 33:52 — Trump’s “deranged scumbags” tweet about killing Iranians* 36:17 — Bloomberg: oil could rise another $3 to $6 a barrel for every day the war continues* 38:56 — Airline ticket prices spike as oil prices rise* 39:40 — Trump uses a dead US servicemember’s coffin in a fundraising emailAdditional topics from the extended discussion / last 45 minutes:* 57:17 — Could US troops be headed to Lebanon?* 57:57 — What happens to gas prices if oil hits $200 or $300 a barrel* 1:00:39 — Why “we dropped more bombs” is not proof the war is going well* 1:01:49 — What is the actual mission in Iran, and why does the goal keep changing?* 1:03:58 — Kharg Island / Karg Island: what it is, why it matters, and whether the US could seize or strike it* 1:10:22 — Why Trump is bluffing about going after Iran’s oil infrastructure* 1:17:23 — CNN panel reaction to Trump’s threat tied to Iran’s oil exports* 1:18:20 — Why attacking Iran’s oil could trigger Iranian retaliation against Saudi and regional oil facilities* 1:20:56 — Risk of Houthi escalation* 1:21:00 — How the war likely ends: Trump declares victory and walks away while the wider threat remains This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Here is today’s quick update. Remember to join me this evening at 6pm ET (that’s DC/NYC time) for my live show, updating you on all today’s news. You can check out last night’s Iran War live here.This war is not calming down. It is getting bigger, more dangerous, and more expensive by the day. A US military refueling plane crashed over Iraq, killing six more American service members and bringing the number of Americans killed in action during this operation to thirteen. At the same time, the Pentagon is now moving more warships and a Marine Expeditionary Unit into the region, which sure looks like the administration is preparing for something larger around the Strait of Hormuz, possibly even a ground role if they think that is what it will take to secure shipping.And what is especially damning is that CNN reports Trump officials admitted in classified briefings that they did not plan for Iran possibly closing the strait. That is insane. This is one of the most obvious risks in the entire conflict. If you attack Iran, of course one of the first things they may do is threaten global oil and gas flows. That is not some obscure possibility. That is basic, obvious, first-week-of-class geopolitics. And yet apparently the people running this war did not think it through.Meanwhile, Trump is still talking like a man making this up by instinct, not strategy. He says he will “feel it in my bones” when the war should end. He is also telling G7 leaders Iran is about to surrender, then twenty-four hours later Iran’s new supreme leader is out publicly vowing to keep fighting. Hegseth is claiming the regime is desperate and hiding while Iran’s leadership is literally appearing in public. So once again, the administration’s public claims do not line up with reality.And the cost keeps rising. Oil analysts now say the war could add three to six dollars a barrel for every single day it continues. Airline prices are already jumping hard. The administration is again loosening Russian oil sanctions to calm markets, which means Trump is effectively helping fund Putin’s war in Ukraine while trying to manage the fallout from his own war with Iran. That is the deeper theme here: chaos, contradiction, and no clear end in sight. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show covers two apparent terrorist attacks in the US, escalating fallout from Trump’s Iran war, Iran’s threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, rising oil and gas prices, warnings of a possible US ground war to reopen shipping lanes, and the growing economic damage at home. I also cover Trump’s false claims about Iranian sleeper cells and Iran’s collapsing leadership, the soaring cost of the war, the school strike controversy, his attacks on CBS and the press, and then take audience questions on the war, the economy, media, and more.On tonight's show:* 0:00 Opening / going live across platforms* 2:10 Intro: two terrorist attacks in the US, then Iran and economy update* 5:05 Terrorist attack on synagogue in Detroit area* 6:08 Terrorist attack at Old Dominion University / ROTC classroom shooting* 8:14 Gulf Arab governments furious with Trump* 10:38 Trump claims there are many Iranian sleeper cells in the US* 13:36 Reuters: Iran’s leadership still largely intact* 14:06 Iran says Strait of Hormuz will stay effectively closed* 16:00 More vessels hit in the Strait of Hormuz / oil around $95* 16:28 Bloomberg forecast: oil could hit $140 or $164 if Hormuz stays closed* 17:42 Trump says he’s fine with higher oil prices* 19:06 Russia making an extra $150 million a day from rising oil prices* 19:19 US gas prices rising again* 20:21 Trump demands the Fed cut interest rates* 21:08 Mortgage rates rising again on inflation fears* 21:40 Reopening Hormuz may require a ground operation / possible US ground war* 23:25 Trump threatens the Iranian national soccer team* 24:17 NBC: first six days of war cost more than $11.3 billion* 24:39 Wash Post: Iranian school strike was approved after building was identified as a factory* 25:16 CBS hiring controversy / Trump furious over ex-Liz Cheney aide* 27:32 Corey Lewandowski under investigation at DHS* 29:34 Trump embarrassed by PBS NewsHour reporter Liz Landers* 32:04 White South Africans returning home after finding the US too dangerous* 33:05 Sasha cameo / dog break* 35:05 Main news update ends / Q&A beginsTopics from the last half hour / hangout:* 35:41 Return to the two terrorist attacks / ROTC clarification* 36:31 Morning show schedule and how you prep the morning updates* 37:26 Whether to be worried about the Iran war / concern about Trump having no clear objective* 38:40 Possible Iranian Epstein-themed propaganda post discussed, but not confirmed* 39:29 Gas prices, airlines, and companies keeping prices high even after oil falls* 40:18 Risks to the Navy if the US escorts ships through Hormuz* 40:55 Chicago River dyed green for St. Patrick’s Day* 43:27 Where you get your news / using X, reporters, experts, and live blogs* 45:12 Report of US military refueling plane crash in Iraq* 47:26 French soldiers injured in drone attack in Iraq* 49:46 Possible pro-Iran militia responsibility discussed* 50:19 Don Lemon as a possible guest* 51:28 TV interviews, Bill Maher, Fox/CNN, and missing a PBS NewsHour booking years ago* 53:29 Canada talk: Ottawa, Gatineau, Montreal, Toronto, Quebec City, French and poutine* 57:43 Belgium / Ghent story, travel memories, waffles, and local coverage of your visit* 1:05:58 Belgian language discussion: Flemish, French, Dutch, Ghent/Gand naming* 1:09:37 WWI/Belgium and eastern France/Germany border talk* 1:11:29 Wrap-up / Ashley’s dog in surgery / Saturday subscriber show reminder* 1:13:14 Sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

In today’s Substack-only Iran War update:Trump is now claiming there are lots of Iranian sleeper cells in the US, and that we supposedly know where most of them are and are watching them. Which, of course, raises the obvious question: if that’s true, why aren’t we arresting them? Because it’s nonsense. It’s Trump doing what he always does, throwing out scary-sounding garbage and hoping nobody notices it doesn’t make any sense.At the same time, Reuters reports that US intelligence believes Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and not close to collapsing, despite nearly two weeks of US and Israeli bombardment. That directly contradicts Trump’s claim that Iran’s leadership is basically gone. It isn’t. He lied about that too.Meanwhile, Iran says it plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely. More vessels were hit overnight, oil is back over $100 a barrel, and there is no end in sight. Bloomberg estimates that if Hormuz stays closed another month, oil could hit $140 a barrel, and if it stays shut longer, it could go even higher. And the bad news is that even after the strait reopens, prices are not expected to go back to where they were before.Trump, in his usual brilliant fashion, says he’s fine with higher oil prices. He actually says stopping Iran matters more to him than oil prices, and even argues that the US makes a lot of money when oil goes up. No. His friends in the oil industry make a lot of money. The rest of us pay more for gas, more for food, more for shipping, more for airfare, more for literally everything. Oil touches everything.Gasoline in the US is already up to about $3.59 a gallon, compared to $2.94 before the war started. And the US is now holding off on military escorts for civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz because officials say it is too dangerous. Well, if it is too dangerous for the US military, then civilian shipping is not exactly going to rush in there either. That means this bottleneck is not ending anytime soon.And the Wall Street Journal reports that reopening the strait may require a ground operation to seize part of Iran’s coastline. In other words, this could get much bigger, much bloodier, and much more expensive very quickly. NBC says the first six days of this war already cost more than $11.3 billion.And finally, the Washington Post reports that the Iranian school building where all those girls were killed by a Tomahawk missile had been identified as a factory and approved as a US target. So now the question is whether bad intelligence did this, or whether AI did. Either way, this war keeps getting uglier. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Stefan Chex, Kevin Ellmer, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back, everybody. Let’s get rolling with this Iran war update, because the Trump administration is still doing what it does best: making up new excuses for a war it still cannot honestly defend. The New York Times reports there’s an ongoing military investigation that has determined the US is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school. And instead of accountability, what do we get? A brand new justification for the war. Yesterday, Witkoff, Trump’s top negotiator, who is not exactly Mr. Foreign Policy Experience, claimed Iran would have had thirty to forty nuclear bombs within a year if we hadn’t invaded. That is absolute b******t. Iran wasn’t even close to one bomb, let alone thirty or forty. And remember, this is the same crowd that told us last year that Iran’s nuclear program had been obliterated and was never coming back. So which is it? And, if Iran was about to build 40 nuclear bombs, why is today the first time we’re hearing about this? That’s the best justification, ever, for going to war, and they didn’t tell us? That’s because it isn’t real.Meanwhile, the war is spreading in exactly the ways people warned it would. Oman says it downed a drone north of Duqm. There’s video of a huge fire at an oil storage tank there. The UAE says its air defenses were engaging missiles and drones. Qatar says it intercepted an Iranian missile attack. Iran also attacked three cargo ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz, which, just as a reminder, is one of the most critical energy shipping chokepoints in the world. And Iran is estimated to have five thousand to six thousand naval mines. Meanwhile, Iran is now two hundred dollar oil, though the experts don’t think that’s the likely outcome right now, but this is not nothing. Oil is back to the eighty-dollar range, though gasoline is up a smidge to $3.58 a gallon, and the International Energy Agency is planning to release four hundred million barrels from emergency reserves, the biggest release in history, just to try to keep prices under control. That should tell you how serious this is.And the human cost is getting worse, while the administration keeps slow-walking the truth. CBS reports that an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait that killed US service members early in the war was more severe than previously known. Yeah, what a surprise. They didn’t tell us how bad it was for our troops. More than thirty service members are still in hospitals with brain trauma, shrapnel injuries, and burns. You’ve got wounded at Brook Army Medical Center in San Antonio, at Walter Reed, at Landstuhl in Germany. Again, this administration keeps acting like if they hide the facts, the reality somehow changes. It doesn’t. Our troops are paying the price for a war sold with lies, managed with lies, and now constantly re-justified with fresh lies every day.Then there’s Russia, because of course. CNN reports Russia is still helping Iran, this time with advanced drone tactics. This comes right after Trump assured us Putin promised he wasn’t helping Iran. We can trust him, they said. Sure. And now we find out the Russians are still helping kill US troops. Keep in mind, at the same time, the Trump administration is lifting oil sanctions on Russia and planning to lift more, helping the Russians make even more money while they’re aiding the people attacking us. Also, according to the New York Times, Iran may still retain as much as fifty percent of its missiles and launchers. So after all this destruction, after all this chest-thumping, they still have a huge amount of capability left. Brilliant work, guys. (Interestingly, Trump claims the war is almost over, in an interview with Axios today, because, he says, there’s nothing left to hit. Does the blazing oil field in Oman, and the three tankers on fire, get a vote?)And finally, the American people are not buying this. Public support for the war is consistently around forty-one percent. That is historically low compared to other major US conflicts. The 1991 Gulf War had support in the eighties. Afghanistan was in the nineties. Iraq in 2003 was in the seventies. Even Libya polled better than this. So when you hear the White House and its cheerleaders trying to act like the country is united behind this mess, that’s simply not true. Americans understand when they’re being manipulated. They understand when the story keeps changing. And they understand that when a government has to invent a new rationale for war every twenty-four hours, it’s because the original rationale never held up in the first place.That’s it for this morning. Make sure to join my live show at 6pm ET.JOHN This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show is about an Iran war that’s getting uglier, more expensive, and somehow even more incoherent by the day. We now know more than 140 US servicemembers have been injured, but the White House only admitted it after Reuters got the story. They were not going to tell us. At the same time, Iran is reportedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, oil is still volatile, gas prices are climbing again, and Trump is doing his usual routine of saying five contradictory things before lunch.Here's the show:* 3:40 — 140+ US servicemembers injured, and the White House only admitted it after Reuters got the leak* 5:34 — Reports that Iran has started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz* 7:03 — Trump’s contradictory claims about mine-laying boats and whether the US even knows what Iran has done* 9:28 — Trump “TACO’d” again, signaling the war was winding down, then immediately escalating his rhetoric* 11:20 — Trump says the war is both “very complete” and “just the beginning”* 12:25 — Iran hints at a threat against Trump* 12:36 — Axios scoop: Zelensky pitched Trump an anti-drone plan for the Middle East, and Trump blew it off* 15:07 — Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, now moving toward Ukrainian anti-drone and air-defense systems* 16:08 — Oil prices fall back from weekend highs, but gas prices are still rising* 16:52 — Trump falsely claims a Strait of Hormuz shutdown would not really affect the US* 17:41 — Trump suggests the US might use its military to keep the strait open as a favor to China* 17:58 — The White House rolls out yet another new set of war goals* 19:08 — Regime change disappears from the official goal list, though it may not really be off the table* 19:22 — Karoline Leavitt defends Trump’s shifting war justifications with “a feeling based on facts”* 23:17 — Pentagon reportedly burning through nearly $3 billion a day in munitions* 23:42 — Trump team asks Israel not to hit more Iranian energy infrastructure* 24:37 — Trump keeps trying to dodge blame for the strike on a girls’ school in Iran* 25:09 — Why Trump’s Tomahawk missile excuse makes no sense* 27:25 — NYT reporter presses Trump on why he is the only one pushing the Tomahawk theory* 29:55 — Hegseth under fire for lavish Pentagon spending on furniture, food, electronics, and more* 34:14 — Trump negotiator says Russia can be taken “at its word” on helping Iran target US assets* 36:31 — Trump says Putin “wants to be helpful”* 36:57 — Trump says he is surprised Iran retaliated against Gulf neighbors* 39:04 — Trump’s comments about sinking Iranian ships and the war-crime criticism* 39:46 — New Quinnipiac polling shows majority opposition to the war* 40:31 — How support for this war compares with past US wars* 42:22 — Zelensky says Ukrainian intelligence obtained Russian battlefield-loss documents* 45:50 — Ukraine expected to get 35 Patriot interceptors in the coming weeks* 46:12 — Hundreds of strangers attend the funeral of a Tennessee veteran with no known relativesOpen discussion / extra topics after the prepared portion:* 48:20 — Iranian “sleeper cell” fears and why Trump created the current danger* 49:05 — Sasha update and a bit about her activity today* 50:31 — Weather in DC and balcony / plant talk* 50:46 — You talk about writing as a stringer for The Economist* 51:11 — More discussion of the Hegseth spending story, including whether some of the seafood may have been for troops* 55:00 — Seafood boil, Cajun food, and seafood preferences* 56:00 — French / Italian / Spanish tangent about “fruits de mer”* 57:08 — Pentagon pizza-order tracking as a sign of possible military activity* 58:42 — Possibility of ending the show early because you were tired* 59:18 — Joe Rogan turns on Trump over the Iran war* 62:19 — Joe Rogan’s reach and why his criticism matters politically* 65:10 — Quick live check for breaking news* 66:30 — More CNN reporting on Iran’s mine-laying and why clearing the strait would be dangerous* 69:10 — Sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s Iran war update:Trump spent yesterday trying to calm markets after freaking out over oil, inflation, and the broader economic fallout of this war. He put out the word that the war might be winding down, clearly hoping to soothe investors. Then he got in front of cameras, after markets closed. and did what he always does: said the opposite. Earlier in the day he told CBS the Iran war was “very complete, pretty much,” and bragged that the US was “very far” ahead of schedule. By the evening, though, the message was basically: never mind, we’re still in this thing. And when a reporter pointed out that Trump said the war was nearly over while his own defense secretary said it was just beginning, Trump’s answer was pure Trump: “You could say both.”That contradiction is the story of this war. Nobody running it seems able to explain what the actual goals are. The White House rolled out a fresh set of objectives again this morning: destroy Iran’s missiles, annihilate its navy, weaken its regional proxies, and make sure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. Interesting: Regime change is gone? Also, the proxy piece was already missing from later briefings. We are more than a week into this war, and they still cannot tell you, clearly and consistently, why we are here.Meanwhile, the consequences keep mounting. Iran is again hinting it may try to kill Trump. Axios reported that Zelensky had previously brought the White House a plan to help build a serious anti-drone defense network for US bases in the Middle East, and the Trump people blew him off because they think he’s a self-promoter. Brilliant. Oil, after spiking to around $130 a barrel over the weekend, has come down into the $80-something range, but gas prices are still rising. Trump bizarrely claimed that shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would not really affect the US because we have so much oil. That is not how global oil markets work. If prices spike overseas, they spike here too.And the administration’s public explanations are getting dumber and dumber. Hegseth offered another garbled rationale about not living under “nuclear blackmail” from conventional missiles, which is nonsense on its face -- if they’re conventional, they’re not nuclear. Trump tried to dodge blame for what appears to be a US strike on a girls’ school in Iran by suggesting maybe somebody else fired a Tomahawk missile, maybe even Iran itself. Iran does not have Tomahawk missiles. When pressed on why he was the only person saying something so absurd, Trump’s answer was that he did not know enough about it. Exactly.On top of that, the Pentagon is burning through money at an astonding pace, and Hegseth is already facing criticism over grotesque spending on luxury nonsense ($6.9m on lobster, and nearly $100k on a piano for some staffer). Trump is praising Putin as “helpful,” acting surprised that Iran hit Gulf neighbors after the US attack, and casually saying it is “more fun” to sink Iranian warships than capture them (which might just be a confession to a war crime). The public, meanwhile, still isn’t buying the war. Most Americans oppose it, overwhelmingly oppose sending ground troops, and think Trump should have had to get congressional approval first. That’s it for now. Make sure to check out my live show here at 6pm ET. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Julia D Lanford, PoutySum8 🐸, Sally, Kaitlin, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.A week into this war, the one thing the Trump administration still cannot tell us is what it thinks it is doing. On one hand, Trump is suddenly hinting that the war may be nearly over, that we’re “very far” ahead of schedule, and that he already has someone in mind to replace Khamenei. On the other hand, we’re also hearing reports that he’s considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz and killing Iran’s new leader. Hegseth goes on 60 Minutes and says the war is “just beginning,” while the Pentagon posts that “we have only begun to fight.” So which is it? Are we winding down, or are we escalating into a larger regional war? On tonight’s show, I cover:0:03 Trump’s press event turns out to be mostly nonsense after reports he might be about to end the war8:08 Trump says the war may be “pretty much over,” even as his own team says the opposite8:31 Trump claims the US is “very far” ahead of the war’s original timeline9:30 Trump talks about killing Iran’s new leader and taking over the Strait of Hormuz10:09 The administration’s war goals change again: missiles, missile factories, and Iran’s navy11:46 A seventh US servicemember dies: Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington of Kentucky12:38 Trump says he may take over the Strait of Hormuz and may kill Iran’s new leader13:00 Iran picks Khamenei’s son as successor, raising fears the regime could become even more radical14:36 New reports say Delta Force may be needed to secure Iran’s nuclear fuel15:37 Oil briefly spikes to $130 a barrel, and Trump appears to have tried calming markets16:48 JPMorgan’s blunt assessment of how the war ends: munitions, markets, and midterms17:20 New NPR/PBS/Marist polling shows weak public support for the war18:42 Lindsey Graham criticism, Israel’s strikes on Iranian oil facilities, and widening regional fallout19:56 Trump reportedly considers lifting more oil sanctions on Russia20:39 New evidence points to the US strike on the girls’ school in Iran, despite Trump’s denials22:45 Trump’s mixed messaging on the school strike and whether he is backing off the war23:45 Trump shows up to the transfer of fallen US troops wearing a baseball cap and merch28:23 Explosion damages the entrance to the US Embassy in Oslo29:06 Anthropic sues the Pentagon after refusing to help build mass-surveillance and autonomous weapons systems29:10 Major Havana Syndrome revelations after reports of a possible microwave weapon tied to Russia38:59 Trump’s bogus claim that the war is ahead of schedule gets even harder to defend42:56 More on Iran’s new leadership and why regime change could make things worseLater viewer Q&A / bonus topics:50:23 No, there is not going to be a military draft, and the boots-on-the-ground rumor got distorted53:30 Why Democrats are favored to retake the House, and why the Senate is suddenly more competitive55:17 Gas prices, oil shock fallout, and what Americans may see next at the pump1:05:56 A weird but funny detour into Canadian gallons, imperial measurements, and why metric never fully took over in the US This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.On tonight’s show, I cover:* 05:24 — Russia is reportedly giving Iran intelligence to help target US forces, and Leavitt says it “does not really matter”* 06:22 — Trump eases Russia oil sanctions while Moscow is helping Iran* 06:41 — Bessent says the US may unsanction even more Russian oil* 08:15 — Ground troop fears grow as Hegseth and Rubio reportedly clash* 09:03 — Washington Post report: 82nd Airborne training exercise canceled, fueling invasion speculation* 09:24 — CNN poll: only 12% support sending US ground troops to Iran* 10:16 — Leavitt’s shifting definition of Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demand* 11:41 — Trump gives his own different definition of “unconditional surrender”* 12:16 — Regime change is suddenly back on the table* 13:09 — Rubio tells Arab foreign ministers the US goal is supposedly not regime change* 14:00 — The war’s goals keep changing: nukes, missiles, “imminent threat,” Israel, regime change* 16:20 — New economic numbers: jobs were expected to rise, but the economy lost 92,000 jobs instead* 17:17 — Stagflation fears: unemployment and inflation rising at the same time* 20:24 — Why energy prices are rising: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut* 22:13 — About 20% of the world’s oil and major natural gas flows are at risk* 23:23 — Kuwait begins cutting production because it cannot move enough crude* 23:31 — US crude jumps above $90 a barrel* 23:46 — Oil is up 36% for the week* 23:53 — Qatar warns oil could hit $150 a barrel* 24:12 — Energy experts warn markets are near a panic moment* 24:35 — US gas prices jump 11% in five days* 25:01 — Some experts warn average gas prices could hit $4 soon* 25:25 — Pentagon says the war could last through September* 26:13 — Jet fuel spike means airfare is about to get more expensive* 27:17 — Trump says if prices rise, they rise* 28:27 — Reports say the administration waited days to start thinking about calming oil markets* 30:03 — Trump’s Hormuz tanker insurance idea reportedly falls apart* 31:28 — Trump on possible retaliation at home: “some people will die”* 33:34 — US military reportedly believes US forces may have hit the girls’ school in Iran, possibly due to an AI targeting error* 34:08 — Trump starts closing embassies before Americans in the region are fully evacuated* 35:45 — DOJ reportedly looks at charges against Cuban leaders as Trump again threatens Cuba* 36:50 — Estimated cost of the Iran war: roughly $200 billion to $400 billion if it runs through September* 37:34 — War polling is awful for Trump* 39:10 — Fox poll: Trump approval 32%, disapproval 67%* 39:51 — Generic ballot: Democrats 48, Republicans 42Later in the show, I also cover:* 44:27 — A nightmare United Nations workplace story and toxic-boss tangent* 51:51 — Viewer Q&A: whether pipelines or alternate routes could bypass the Strait of Hormuz* 53:12 — Why Turkey is in NATO, and whether that still makes strategic sense* 55:55 — Cuba’s fuel crisis and what that could mean militarily* 57:18 — Russia looks overstretched, and what happens if China moves on Taiwan* 58:07 — Viewer question on China-Iran military ties and whether China is helping Iran directly* 60:04 — Return to Russia helping Iran target US assets, and Trump’s refusal to seriously confront Moscow* 61:59 — Brief end-of-show hangout: new mattress, pricing weirdness, and home setup talk* 66:09 — Daylight saving time, dogs, sleep disruption, and why changing the clocks is stupid* 67:11 — Sasha update: aging, mobility, and dog-years discussion* 72:05 — Weekend show plans and war-update schedule This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you sharon quinn, Teri D, Sally, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Tonight’s show is a snapshot of a White House and a war effort that are both spiraling — and the through-line is incompetence dressed up as confidence. Domestically, the Kristi Noem mess keeps getting uglier: she’s reportedly out not because of the “murder” scandal, but because the TV coverage was too toxic, so she gets parked in a fake new job while Corey Lewandowski also heads for the exits. And in peak Trump-world logic, Sen. Markwayne Mullin is reportedly being tapped as the replacement because Trump likes how he looks on television. That’s the hiring rubric. We’re all just living inside it.On the battlefield side, the war’s toll keeps rising and the information space is getting even dirtier. The Pentagon has now released the names of two additional US servicemembers killed in Kuwait by an Iranian drone: Major Jeffrey O’Brien and Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan. At the same time, rumors flew that Iran shot down two US planes — US officials deny it, though one was reportedly said to be over southern Iraq. And the region looks like it’s becoming a target map: Azerbaijan reportedly hit as Iran tries to disrupt rerouted Europe–Asia flight paths, Qatari fighter jets reportedly intercepted Iranian bombers that came within minutes of striking al-Udeid, a tanker was hit by a large explosion off Kuwait causing an oil spill, and a key refinery in Bahrain was reportedly hit by Iranian missiles and drones.Then comes the part that hits everybody’s wallet — the war is now an energy crisis on a countdown clock. US crude jumped 8.5% to just over $81, Brent climbed to about $85, and both benchmarks have been ripping higher this week. White House aides are reportedly panicking over gas prices, with the national average up about 27 cents since the war began, and reports of sharp spikes in places like DC and parts of the country — while jet fuel prices have doubled. Trump’s response to Reuters on rising gas prices is basically: I don’t care, it’s more important, and “if they rise, they rise.” Meanwhile Europe is getting hammered too: natural gas prices reportedly jumped 53% in just days, tied to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and strikes hitting Qatari LNG production. And the Strait itself is flashing red — roughly 80 oil and gas tankers normally pass through daily, but CNN cited S&P Global data showing zero transits on Wednesday, after only a few the day before, compared to dozens right before the war began.Finally, we’re going to connect the political incentives to the escalation — because the messaging is getting as reckless as the operations. Trump is claiming Iran reached out to “make a deal” and that the war is “ahead of schedule,” even as the stated goals keep changing by the hour. He’s also reportedly saying Iran has to “approve” their next leader with him — which tells you a lot about how he thinks the world works. Inside the administration, Stephen Miller is out here arguing Trump can sell a new war as “anti-war” because the military is “no longer woke,” while polling shows MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly back the strikes even as non-MAGA Republicans are more split. And there’s reportedly an internal fight over whether to send US troops into Iran — Rubio warning against a long entanglement, Hegseth pushing the other direction. We’ll also dig into the machinery of this war: reports of talks to buy Ukrainian-made drone interceptors, the sheer burn rate of Patriot missiles, and the unnerving detail that an AI pairing (“Maven, powered by Claude”) is reportedly accelerating targeting decisions. Plus the side shows — like Jeanne Pirro claiming she’s still investigating Biden over an autopen — and the broader geopolitical tremors, including reports about Poland discussing nukes and Finland weighing changes to nuclear-weapons transit rules. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Teri D, Tina Kimber, Sally, Tim Wood, Kevin Ellmer, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.The Senate voted down a War Powers resolution that would have blocked Trump from ordering further strikes on Iran, so the war continues. Trump’s team is still selling the decision with shifting rationales: claims Iran was “two weeks” from nuclear material or a bomb, warnings about longer-term ICBM capability, and broader talk of “cumulative threats.” Karoline Leavitt added that Trump had a “feeling” Iran was about to strike US assets, and Trump again repeated the “two weeks” nuclear line today. In the same briefing, Leavitt attacked Biden as “stupid and incompetent” for supporting Ukraine — even as Ukraine is now being asked to help with US air defense.The practical problem is cost and capability. Hegseth said he didn’t anticipate Iranian drones would be this difficult to defeat cheaply, with the US using expensive Patriot interceptors against low-cost drones, and reports say US stocks of Patriot and other interceptors are running low. The Washington Post reports the US may be “days away” from having to prioritize which targets to intercept and which to let through. Trump has called defense contractor executives to the White House Friday to accelerate weapons production, raising the obvious question of why that wasn’t done before the fighting began.I’m also covering the widening fallout: the Pentagon’s estimated cost of about $1 billion per day and Trump asking Congress for $50 billion more; the deaths of six US service members in Kuwait in a suspected Iranian drone attack and Hegseth blaming media coverage for trying to make Trump look bad, contrasted with the Joint Chiefs chair opening by naming the fallen. There are also reports of a US submarine attack on an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka with at least 101 missing and 78 wounded, and Iran launching a ballistic missile at NATO ally Turkey that was intercepted. The White House says ground troops aren’t part of the plan “for now,” while reports suggest CIA-backed Kurdish forces in western Iran are escalating. And on the civilian side, Trump admits there was no evacuation plan for Americans in the region because it “happened all very quickly,” even though US military personnel were moved out earlier; the US has now closed embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon, and gas prices are spiking sharply. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you sharon quinn, Kevin Ellmer, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.The US–Iran war is accelerating fast — and it’s starting to look less like a “contained strike campaign” and more like a rolling crisis.Reports now claim a US submarine hit an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, with at least 101 missing and 78 wounded. Iran also reportedly launched a ballistic missile toward NATO ally Turkey, intercepted over the eastern Mediterranean. If missiles are flying toward a NATO country, this is no longer a neat US–Iran box. That’s escalation with alliance risk baked in.The operational problem is just as scary: US air defenses aren’t infinite. Stockpiles get chewed up when you’re shooting down waves of cheap drones with multi-million-dollar interceptors. Reporting suggests the US may soon have to prioritize what it intercepts — and what it lets through. That’s not strategy. That’s triage.Trump is reportedly calling in major defense contractors to surge weapons production while asking Congress for at least $50B in special war funding. Embassies have closed in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon as the civilian evacuation story lags behind reality.And the justification keeps shifting — nukes, ICBMs, “Iran was about to attack” — even as the IAEA says there’s “no evidence” Iran is building a nuclear weapon.Bottom line: escalation is outrunning planning, and nobody is offering a credible endpoint.Here are the topics we discussed:* 4:21 US submarine reportedly attacks an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka; 101 missing, 78 wounded.* 4:52 Iran reportedly launches a ballistic missile at NATO ally Turkey; intercepted over the eastern Mediterranean.* 5:48 US reportedly running low on Patriot/interceptors — $4M missiles vs $20K drones; Ukraine offers help.* 6:51 Washington Post: US is “days away” from triaging what to intercept — and what to let through.* 7:13 Trump calls in top US defense contractors Friday to accelerate weapons production.* 7:52 War cost now at least $50B; Trump seeks special emergency funding from Congress.* 8:27 Report: CIA arming Kurdish forces in western Iran to spark internal conflict/civil war.* 10:37 Trump admits no plan to evacuate Americans from the Middle East; thousands stranded.* 13:40 Trump’s rationale shifts again: now claims Iran was going to attack first.* 17:14 US closes embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon.* 18:02 Nuclear-justification whiplash: claims about nukes/ICBMs vs watchdog pushback; what changed and why?* 21:51 Friendly fire report: Kuwaiti FA-18 downed three USAF F-15Es over Kuwait; coalition info-sharing breakdown.* 22:20 Hegseth attacks the media for making the six US deaths in Kuwait “front page news.”* 25:30 CBS/YouGov: 69% say Trump needs Congressional approval to continue military action; 31% say he doesn’t.* 25:38 Report: Iran was willing to give up enriched uranium — a key US demand — when Trump attacked.* 25:50 After calling Claude a “risk,” Defense Dept reportedly uses Claude for targeting and battlefield simulation.* 25:55 Trump attacks Spain over airbase access, floats embargo; Spain’s PM calls the Iran attack a “catastrophe.”* 28:32 US gasoline prices surge at the fastest two-day pace since 2005.* 28:40 Trump opens another front: Ecuador operation targeting terrorist drug lords/traffickers.Off-script / last ~15 minutes:* 42:31 Prediction markets shift on who controls the Senate; Harry Enten flags it as meaningful.* 43:28 Trump’s poll numbers crater; even parts of his base reportedly furious about the war.* 43:42 “Little elections” signal: Texas turnout and unexpected Democratic strength.* 51:08 Q&A: China’s energy dependence and Middle East oil flows — where Iran/Saudi exports end up.* 51:48 “Kraken” / House-seat tangent: primaries, gerrymandering, and what a “loss” actually means.* 52:31 Dan Crenshaw shocker: loses Texas primary; what it says about GOP/MAGA dynamics. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.Here is tonight’s show:* 00:00 — Going live / getting set up (comments, platforms)* 01:30 — IG/TikTok/Substack housekeeping + audience hello* 03:00 — Framing the night: things are getting worse fast (and what “winning” even means)* 04:30 — Quick background/context for why you’re reading this the way you are* 05:00 — Sen. Roger Wicker: after a classified briefing, admin “not ruling out” boots on the ground* 06:00 — What “boots on the ground” actually means (and how it escalates)* 06:30 — Rubio’s “imminent threat” story + the Israel angle* 07:30 — Admin backtracking / “out of context” excuse — you replay the clip and call BS* 09:00 — The logic pretzel: “Israel would strike, Iran would hit us, so we had to invade”* 10:30 — Rubio’s posture shift + why the narrative keeps changing* 11:30 — Rubio “lunatics” video / his simplistic pitch for why this is “the right decision”* 12:30 — The nukes/missiles/drones rationale — and why you think it’s reckless framing* 13:30 — Your rule of thumb: when the reasons keep changing, something’s wrong* 14:30 — Goalposts moving: yesterday it was 8 goals, today it’s 4* 15:30 — Regime change language vs denial — what “regime change” actually implies* 16:30 — The “arm the rebels” problem (and how that can blow up in your face)* 18:00 — Trump asked “worst case?” → “someone just as bad takes over” (you unpack the insanity of that)* 19:00 — Trump: “it was my opinion” they were about to attack us / then it becomes “about to attack Israel”* 20:00 — “Opinion” vs intelligence vs justification — you hammer the contradiction* 21:30 — Trump: “virtually unlimited” munitions — then simultaneous whining about stocks* 22:30 — “No plan” for Americans because it “happened so quickly” — you call it negligence* 23:30 — Embassy closures + evacuation chaos (Saudi/Kuwait/Lebanon) + scale of Americans at risk* 25:00 — Americans calling State: long holds, then canned scripts; you compare it to other countries organizing airlifts* 26:00 — Saudi embassy hit in a multi-drone attack (roof collapse/smoke) + personnel sheltering* 26:40 — Dubai consulate parking lot drone hit* 27:30 — Kuwait strike kills 6 US service members: “fortified facility” vs what it actually was* 29:00 — CBS details: requests for better drone defenses / warning not to use the makeshift TOC* 30:00 — Vance positioning: “didn’t want to go in” vs “go in hard” vs Trump claiming Vance was on board* 31:30 — Assembly of Experts hit / Iran succession politics (why that matters)* 33:00 — Allies/Europe: how this war is already colliding with broader alliance management* 34:00 — Trump attacks Spain (and the “what the hell is he even mad about?” angle)* 35:00 — The UK rant / cross-pressure with allies while you’re asking them for support* 36:00 — Diego Garcia mention — basing/access implications and Trump’s threats* 37:30 — The pattern: trash allies for years → demand loyalty the moment you go to war* 38:30 — Gas spike (big single-day jump) and the domestic blowback starting* 40:00 — CNN poll: support vs opposition numbers (and what that signals)* 40:30 — Reuters supply warning: prolonged conflict risks disrupting US-made air-defense deliveries to Europe/Ukraine* 41:30 — Quick detour: language nerd moment / audience chat while you scroll and verify items* 43:30 — Pakistan/Karachi thread: you flag uncertainty + the “don’t trust viral claims instantly” warning* 45:00 — AI/misinformation problem: why you’re skeptical of circulating photos/posts* 46:30 — Reports about strikes/casualties: what’s confirmed vs what’s still fog-of-war* 48:00 — Civilian casualties argument: you walk through the moral/strategic trap people fall into* 49:30 — “This isn’t Gaza” — why you separate contexts and still worry about mission creep* 51:00 — Audience Q&A / your “I’m getting worried” shift as the scope expands* 52:30 — War language: officials calling it a “war” — what that implies politically and legally* 54:00 — War powers / Congress / “who authorized what?” — your frustration with the framing* 55:30 — You explicitly park other domestic news so the Iran story doesn’t get diluted* 56:30 — Platform/stream hiccups (Facebook/tech weirdness) + housekeeping* 57:00 — Pentagon identifies Army Reserve deaths; reacting to names/ages and what it says about escalation* 59:30 — Continuing on Reserve casualties + why this is already becoming “real war” for Americans* 61:30 — Back to the Kurdish opposition/CIA reporting: “jumpstart uprising” talk and how dangerous it is* 63:00 — Why “arming opposition groups” is a high-risk play (blowback, fragmentation, unintended outcomes)* 65:00 — More on Iranian succession dynamics / clerics / who could emerge next* 67:30 — Wrap-up + sign-off across platforms This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe