CAPS Unlock Podcast

In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we begin with a novelty in the European Union’s sanctions campaign toward Russia. For the first time, Brussels has applied what it calls an anti-circumvention mechanism at the level of an entire country: Kyrgyzstan.The measure is narrow but consequential. It targets specific categories of industrial equipment and financial channels that the EU believes have enabled sanctioned goods to be rerouted into Russia. Bishkek firmly rejects these claims. While the immediate economic impact may be limited, the reputational implications are harder to dismiss. The move sets a precedent: third countries risk direct restrictions if they are seen as transit hubs in sanctions evasion. At the same time, contrasting treatment of Tajik banks, recently removed from the sanctions list, raises questions about how technical these decisions really are.We then turn to Kazakhstan, where confusion over residence permit rules triggered unnecessary alarm.Reports suggested applicants might need advanced Kazakh language proficiency at B2 level. That interpretation proved incorrect. The government later clarified that requirements have not broadly tightened, but instead become more selective. Highly skilled professionals in priority sectors are now exempt from language and scoring requirements, while controls for others are becoming more structured. The episode highlights a recurring issue: policy communication remains uneven, even when the underlying direction is relatively clear.In this week’s interview, we look at foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) in Central Asia with Shairbek Dzhuraev, executive director of Crossroads Central Asia. Drawing on the European Neighbourhood Council’s report Information Under Pressure, we examine how external actors, primarily Russia and China, project narratives into local information spaces.These campaigns are sustained, coordinated, and adapted to national contexts. In Kazakhstan, messaging is locally calibrated; in Uzbekistan, it is more global and ideological. The conversation also explores a growing “resilience gap,” as pressure on independent media and civil society weakens the region’s ability to respond.Links* Report: Information Under Pressure (European Neighbourhood Council) - https://encouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CA_FIMI-Report.pdf* European Commission: EU 20th sanctions package announcement - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_869* Interview with President Sadyr Japarov (Kabar) - https://ru.kabar.kg/news/intervyu-s-prezidentom-kyrgyzstana-sadyrom-zhaparovym/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we examine two sharply different but ultimately connected economic stories from Central Asia, before turning to a revealing interview on Kazakhstan’s changing business landscape.We begin in Kazakhstan, where official data show a roughly 20 percent year-on-year drop in oil production in the first quarter. The decline reflects a convergence of disruptions: a fire at the Tengiz field that temporarily halted output, and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on infrastructure linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Together, these episodes expose a structural vulnerability that is easy to overlook. Despite the fall in volumes, export revenues have held up, largely due to higher global oil prices. That apparent resilience masks a deeper problem: Kazakhstan remains heavily dependent on a single commodity, exported through infrastructure shaped by geopolitical risk.We then turn to Kyrgyzstan, where the government is attempting to position the country as a regional cryptocurrency hub. The scale of activity is striking, with transaction volumes far exceeding national GDP. But the reality is more limited than the headline numbers suggest. Most flows consist of simple currency conversions, often linked to cross-border transactions that bypass traditional banking channels. The government’s challenge is clear: can it transform this transit function into a genuine financial sector, or will it remain a conduit for external capital?Finally, we speak with journalist Chris Rickleton about his investigation into Shakhmurat Mutalip, a little-known businessman whose rapid rise places him at the centre of Kazakhstan’s strategic industries. Rickleton outlines what is known about Mutalip’s background, the role of the infrastructure giant Integra, and the significance of potential deals involving major mining firms. The discussion points to something larger than one individual: a possible reconfiguration of economic power in Kazakhstan, with implications for both domestic elites and foreign investors.LINKS* The Diplomat, Chris Rickleton & Ardak Bukeyeva, investigation on Shakhmurat Mutalip - https://thediplomat.com/2026/04/investigation-is-shakhmurat-mutalip-kazakhstans-new-chosen-one/* Radio Free Europe/Radio Ozodi – Tajikistan forced cotton cultivation report - https://www.ozodi.org/a/dehqonhoro-dubora-ba-kishti-pakhta-majbur-kardaand/33731032.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we turned our attention to one country that rarely gets the scrutiny it deserves: Turkmenistan. Despite its strategic location, vast gas reserves, and sensitive position between Iran, Afghanistan, and the rest of Central Asia, it remains one of the hardest states in the region to read clearly. Access is limited, reporting is constrained, and much of what emerges does so in fragments.To help make sense of that opacity, this episode brought together two guests with sharply different but complementary perspectives. Galiya Ibragimova, an expert on Central Asia and Eastern Europe and a contributor to Carnegie Politika, discussed the strange and still unresolved power arrangement at the top of the Turkmen state. Since Serdar Berdymukhamedov formally became president in March 2022, his father Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, widely known as Arkadag, has remained a central political force, raising obvious questions about who really governs and how stable that balance is.The conversation also examined the external pressures shaping Turkmenistan’s options. Heavy dependence on gas exports to China, the uncertain prospects of alternative routes, and the fallout from instability in Iran and Afghanistan all leave Ashgabat exposed. Galiya walked through the recent and rather extraordinary episode of Arkadag’s trip to Florida, using it as a window into elite dynamics and the father-son relationship at the top of the regime.But the episode did not stay at the level of palace intrigue. Aynabat Yaylymova, founder of Saglyk and Progres Foundation, brought the discussion back to the realities of daily life inside Turkmenistan: corruption, weak institutions, poor access to healthcare, rising food prices, information controls, and the growing pressure on household budgets. Beyond the rumours surrounding intra-elite tensions, she argued, the more important fact is that ordinary Turkmens continue to pay the price for misrule.The result is a conversation that tries to connect the opaque politics of the Turkmen elite with the far more tangible pressures experienced by people on the ground.LINKS* Progres Foundation - https://progres.online/* Saglyk - https://saglyk.org/* Galiya Ibragimova’s author page at Carnegie Politika - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/people/galiya-ibragimova* Galiya Ibragimova’s article on the Serdar-Gurbanguly power struggle and the Florida episode - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/04/serdar-vs-arkadag-who-controls-turkmenistan/* Galiya Ibragimova’s article on Turkmen gas exports and the fallout from the war in Iran - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/03/pressurized-gas-how-the-wars-surrounding-turkmenistan-are-affecting-gas-exports/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode looks at two structural pressures shaping Central Asia’s future: food insecurity in Tajikistan and energy strategy in Kyrgyzstan, before turning to the wider regional impact of the war in Iran.We begin in Tajikistan, where President Emomali Rahmon has warned of unprecedented food price rises. His explanations point outward, to climate change and global instability, but the domestic picture complicates that narrative. At the same time as calling for food security, authorities continue to push farmers toward cotton production.Reporting suggests this is not voluntary: quotas and administrative pressure leave farmers little room to prioritize food crops. The result is a system that prioritizes exportable raw materials over local consumption.That trade-off looks increasingly untenable in a country where malnutrition remains widespread and infrastructure constraints, especially lack of storage, undermine food stability. The contradiction is stark: rising demand for food alongside policies that disincentivize its production.The second story turns to Kyrgyzstan, where officials have floated a referendum on building a nuclear power plant. There are no concrete plans yet, but the signal matters. Electricity demand has risen sharply, while generation has barely kept pace, leaving a widening deficit covered by imports. Hydropower still dominates the system, but its seasonal volatility and exposure to climate risks make it unreliable as a sole backbone. Nuclear is being framed less as a replacement than as a stabilizer, baseload capacity to smooth out fluctuations.In our interview slot, we speak with Shakhlo Kamaladinova, Central Asia Coordinator for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. She explains how the war in Iran is affecting Central Asia not geographically, but structurally. Trade routes through Iranian ports remain critical, and disruptions are already feeding into higher insurance costs, logistical uncertainty, and long-term strategic recalculations. While alternative corridors exist, they lack the flexibility to fully compensate. The result is a region increasingly aware of its exposure, but not yet equipped to escape it.Links· Shakhlo Kamaladinova’s article at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation: · President Rahmon’s speech in Sughd: https://president.tj/event/news/55134· RFE/RL Tajik service report on Rahmon’s speech: https://www.azattyqasia.org/a/prezident-tadzhikistana-predupredil-o-bespretsedentnom-roste-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-v-etom-godu/33722989.html· Asia-Plus, April 2025, on farmers forced to destroy wheat for cotton: https://asiaplus.news/2025/04/18/v-rajonah-tadzhikistana-mestnye-vlasti-unichtozhayut-posevy-psheniczy-zastavlyaya-dehkan-sazhat-hlopok/· Asia-Plus, February 2025, on cotton coercion: https://asiaplus.news/2025/02/25/fermerov-tadzhikistana-zastavlyayut-sazhat-hlopok/· Avesta.tj, on cotton sowing campaign launch: https://avesta.tj/2026/03/27/v-kanibadame-nachalas-kampaniya-po-posevu-hlopka/· World Food Program, Tajikistan food security data: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000172887/download/· Eurasian Development Bank, warehouse infrastructure study: https://eabr.org/analytics/special-reports/warehouse-infrastructure-in-eurasia-the-opportunity-of-the-decade/· Interfax on Kyrgyzstan nuclear referendum proposal: https://www.interfax.ru/world/1081927· Rosatom, RITM-200N memorandum with Kyrgyzstan: https://rosatom-energy.ru/media/rosatom-news/rosatom-i-kirgiziya-dogovorilis-o-sotrudnichestve-v-sooruzhenii-atomnoy-stantsii-maloy-moshchnosti/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week, we return to the political soap opera unfolding in Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the February removal of security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev. The pressure on Tashiyev’s family continues to mount. His brother, Shairbek, who surrendered his parliamentary mandate after a first police interrogation earlier in March, has now been called back in for a second round of questioning.His son, Tai-Muras, is facing a subtler social media campaign highlighting the $6 million profit made by his company between 2020 and 2025, a figure that raises pointed questions, given that President Sadyr Japarov was publicly praising Tai-Muras’ business acumen as recently as 2024.Meanwhile, the former National Bank chairman Melis Turgunbayev has been drawn into the investigation into state oil and gas company Kyrgyzneftegaz, briefly detained and now released, but still facing possible prosecution.But the story has another side: the acquittal of the so-called Kempir-Abad defendants, activists and politicians arrested in 2022 for opposing a controversial border deal with Uzbekistan, has now been upheld on appeal. And the journalist Makhabat Tazhibek kyzy of investigative outlet Temirov Live has been released from pre-trial detention. Thaw or managed transition? We discuss.We then turn to Kazakhstan, where popular YouTube channel Airan, with its nearly 1.2 million subscribers, has abruptly shut down. The explanation given was carefully, conspicuously vague. We examine what its closure says about the structural impossibility of independent media in Kazakhstan, against a backdrop of several recent journalist arrests.For our interview this week, we spoke with Demir Kabylbayev, senior analyst and energy sector lead at the Eurasian Development Bank, and lead author of a new report on Central Asia’s power sector. We discussed the region’s acute energy challenge: surging demand, ageing Soviet-era infrastructure, and the difficult path toward renewables, and why a pragmatic middle path may be the only realistic option.LinkPower Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition - https://eabr.org/en/analytics/special-reports/power-sector-of-central-asia-modernization-and-energy-transition/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast departs from the usual format for a single in-depth conversation with journalist Joanna Lillis, whose new book Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan draws on more than two decades of reporting to examine the country’s evolution since independence.Lillis traces Uzbekistan’s trajectory from the repressive system built under Islam Karimov to the more open but still contradictory era of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Rather than a conventional political history, the book is constructed through individual stories, with former political prisoners, exiles, activists, and artists, and allows the lived experience of the system to take precedence over official narratives.A central theme of the discussion is the question of historical reckoning. Lillis argues that Uzbekistan’s failure to confront episodes such as the Andijan massacre continues to shape both public life and private memory. Without a clear account of past abuses, she suggests, reforms risk resting on unstable foundations, with old practices, whether in the justice system or restrictions on speech, reappearing in new forms.The conversation also examines the limits of reform. While the eradication of state-sponsored forced labour in the cotton sector stands out as a genuine success, deeper structural issues in agriculture and governance remain unresolved. More broadly, Lillis points to a pattern of selective liberalisation: greater openness in some areas paired with persistent red lines in politics, media, and civic life.Attention turns to culture and society, where change is more dynamic. Uzbekistan today displays a complex mix of liberalising and conservative currents, from the rise of religious influencers to a still-cautious creative sector shaped by residual fear and self-censorship. At the same time, the state’s effort to promote a polished international image through culture and heritage sits uneasily alongside continued repression at home.Across the discussion runs a consistent argument: that Uzbekistan’s future development, economic as much as political, depends not only on reform, but on a more honest engagement with its past.Links Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan - https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/silk-mirage-9781350292468/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this week’s very packed episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast we cover a busy news week across two countries, and speak with a researcher whose work offers a fascinating lens on how Central Asian states construct national identity through their museums.We begin with Kazakhstan, where citizens went to the polls to approve a new constitution, the country’s third since independence. With official figures showing turnout of around 73 percent and 87 percent support for the new document, we walk through the key changes: the merger of Kazakhstan’s two chambers of parliament into a single body called the Kurultai, the creation of a new vice-presidential role, and the establishment of a new advisory institution called the People’s Council. We also reflect on what the process itself revealed; the speed at which the new document was adopted, questions around independent observation, and the broader project of national myth-making that a new constitutional holiday on March 15 represents.Then we turn to Kyrgyzstan, where what initially looked like a clean break between President Sadyr Japarov and his longtime ally and former security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev is becoming considerably more complicated. The state tax service has published an investigation on YouTube alleging that a network of companies connected to Tashiyev’s relatives systematically siphoned profits from the state oil company Kyrgyzneftegaz over five years, with losses estimated at over $45 million. Meanwhile, Tashiyev’s brother, Shairbek, has resigned from parliament (at least seven MPs linked to Tashiyev’s orbit have resigned their seats in recent weeks). We discuss what this escalation means for Kyrgyzstan’s political landscape and what it may portend for the future.Finally, in our interview segment, we speak with Katarzyna Jarosz, a researcher and author of Museums in Central Asia and the Construction of National Narratives (Palgrave Macmillan, 2025). Katarzyna takes us through what museums in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan reveal about how these states understand, and curate, their own pasts, and offers practical tips for visitors on how to read a Central Asian museum.Links:Katarzyna Jarosz, Museums in Central Asia and the Construction of National Narratives (Palgrave Macmillan, 2025) — https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/museums-in-central-asia-and-the-construction-of-national-narrati/51409240The State Tax Service of Kyrgyzstan YouTube investigation into Kyrgyzneftegaz - Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we speak with Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at Nightingale Int., about what the war between the United States, Israel and Iran could mean for Central Asia.Rather than dwelling on battlefield events, the conversation looks at the wider regional consequences of the conflict, particularly for trade routes, strategic connectivity and Central Asia’s ability to balance between larger powers. Gusseinov argues that the immediate effect on the region is less direct than many assume. The more important question lies in the ripple effects: how the war reshapes relations among Iran, Russia, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and how those shifts then feed back into Central Asia.He outlines three broad trends to watch. First, if the Iranian regime survives, Tehran may move closer to Moscow, giving Russia a stronger role in the corridors that run south through Iran and Afghanistan. Second, China may place greater weight on Central Asia as a stable neighbour and as a hedge against vulnerable maritime choke points and instability across the wider Asian space. Third, Afghanistan, squeezed by conflict with Pakistan and by disruptions to its access through Iran, may seek deeper integration with Central Asia and Russia via northern routes.The discussion also examines whether prolonged instability in Iran would damage Central Asia’s hopes of reaching the Indian Ocean, and whether alternatives such as Afghanistan, Pakistan or even a narrower focus on Afghanistan as a market might become more realistic. Gusseinov is sceptical of easy answers, arguing that geography still bites, infrastructure remains weak, and sanctions continue to impose a structural constraint.At the broadest level, the episode asks whether this war could narrow the space for Central Asia’s multi-vector diplomacy. Gusseinov’s answer is cautious. In the short term, yes, but over time, the region may still find new routes, new bargains and new ways to adapt. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Operation Epic Fury has forced every government in Central Asia to signal where it stands. And just as importantly, how carefully it intends to stand there.We began this week’s CAPS Unlock podcast with the U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran and the varied responses across the five Central Asian republics. Tajikistan, the region’s only Persian-speaking state, issued unusually warm condolences toward Tehran, though notably via its embassy rather than the presidential press service. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan adopted more conventional diplomatic language, invoking dialogue and the UN Charter. Kazakhstan expressed solidarity with Jordan, Qatar and the UAE following Iranian retaliatory strikes and moved quickly to secure its nationals in Iran, including dozens of workers at a joint mining venture. Turkmenistan, which shares a long border with Iran, has remained publicly silent, a silence that reflects both exposure and constraint.We then turn to Russia’s decision to designate the Kazakhstan-focused outlet Respublika as a “foreign agent.” The move marks the first time Moscow has applied its domestic political labeling system to a media project centered on Kazakhstan. We discuss what this could mean in practice: whether Russia is testing Astana’s willingness to cooperate, whether this signals a broader attempt to extend Russian legal norms into the post-Soviet space, and how such designations may complicate media operations across borders.In this week’s interview, we speak with UK-based analyst Ora Lazic about her recent business position paper prepared ahead of the B5+1 meeting in Bishkek. Lazic challenges the idea of a critical minerals “gold rush.” While strategically important, the sector remains economically modest. She argues that Central Asia’s real task is institutional: modernising geological data, strengthening regulatory stability, building infrastructure along the Middle Corridor, and coordinating government-backed financing. If supply chain diversification away from China is serious, it will require sustained structural reform, not rhetoric.LINKSCritical Mineral Resources: Expanding Cooperation: Central Asia–United States Business Dialogues - https://www.cipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Critical-Mineral-Resources_B51-2026_en.pdfRespublika report on its inclusion in Russia’s list of “foreign agents” - https://respublika.kz.media/archives/157073 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast moves across three very different but interconnected storylines shaping Central Asia’s political and economic trajectory.We begin with the European Union’s stalled 20th sanctions package against Russia and, most relevantly for us, the likely inclusion of Kyrgyzstan. Although Hungary and Slovakia blocked the package for now, Kyrgyzstan had been earmarked under the EU’s new anti-circumvention mechanism. The concern is clear: a dramatic surge in re-exports of dual-use goods to Russia, alongside the rapid expansion of Kyrgyzstan’s licensed crypto sector. Since 2022, the country has built a regulatory framework for virtual asset service providers, issuing roughly 100 licenses and facilitating billions of dollars in transactions. Western authorities increasingly suspect that some of this infrastructure has enabled sanctions evasion. Even if sanctions do not materialise immediately, the reputational implications for Kyrgyzstan’s investment climate are significant.We then turn to Turkmenistan, where two carefully timed diplomatic signals raise larger geopolitical questions. Former president (and current National Leader) Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov travelled to Florida, offering familiar pitches for investment, including renewed references to the long-delayed TAPI pipeline. Separately, it has been reported that President Serdar Berdymukhamedov is preparing a visit to Brussels, where energy cooperation and the long-frozen EU–Turkmen Partnership and Cooperation Agreement are expected to feature prominently. With Europe searching for diversification away from Russian energy, and Washington recalibrating its posture toward Iran, Turkmenistan’s strategic positioning merits close attention.Finally, we speak with CAPS Unlock senior research fellow Azimzhan Khitakhunov about new research on Kazakhstan’s renewable sector. While clean energy accounts for roughly 7 percent of electricity generation, it remains concentrated in large installations. The report, which will be published on the CAPS Unlock website in the near future, examines how small and medium-sized enterprises could become drivers of decentralised green growth. Financing constraints, regulatory awareness gaps, and limited support mechanisms remain key barriers. Comparative lessons from Canada, Australia, and especially Uzbekistan illustrate how targeted incentives and information campaigns can accelerate uptake. Encouragingly, regional officials in Almaty have signalled interest in implementing elements of the study’s recommendations.LinksRussia Leveraging Kyrgyzstan’s Crypto Ecosystem to Evade Sanctions - https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/russia-leveraging-kyrgyzstans-crypto-ecosystem-to-evade-sanctionsReuters reporting on proposed EU sanctions affecting Kyrgyzstan - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kyrgyzstan-seeks-talks-with-eu-over-report-that-bloc-considers-sanctions-over-2026-02-02/Turkmenistan’s president to visit EU for talks on energy, EU ambassador says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkmenistans-president-visit-eu-talks-energy-eu-ambassador-says-2026-02-17/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast plunges directly into political shifts unfolding across Central Asia. Developments in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan are each highly specific, rooted in their own institutional histories and elite dynamics. Yet taken together, they point to a deeper and more persistent anxiety: how personalistic political systems manage transition.The entire episode is devoted to a conversation with Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center whose work closely tracks political change across the region.In Kyrgyzstan, President Sadyr Japarov’s abrupt dismissal of security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev marked the apparent end of a five-year tandem that had dominated the political system. The move was swift and coordinated: Tashiyev was removed while abroad, his deputies were dismissed, key security structures were reallocated, and several public figures linked to a controversial letter calling for early elections were detained. Was this a routine consolidation of power ahead of the 2027 presidential vote, or the deliberate dismantling of a parallel power centre?In Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has accelerated a constitutional overhaul initially framed as parliamentary reform. Within months, the initiative expanded into a broader rewrite, culminating in a March 15 referendum. Among the most closely watched elements is the reintroduction of a vice presidency, a structural innovation that inevitably raises questions about succession pathways, elite alignment, and long-term guarantees.In Tajikistan, President Emomali Rahmon’s unexplained two-week absence reignited speculation about health and dynastic transition. Although he has since reappeared, the episode exposed how tightly the system remains tied to a single individual. With his son Rustam Emomali constitutionally positioned as interim successor, the framework for transfer appears clear on paper, but far less certain in practice.Across the region, transition is no longer an abstract question. It is being tested in real time, through dismissals, constitutional redesign, and moments of silence that unsettle political systems built around personal authority. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the Caps Unlock Podcast opened with a discussion of a major shift in Central Asia’s external economic orientation: China has overtaken Russia to become the region’s largest trading partner. Drawing on newly published trade data for 2025, the conversation examined what it means for China-Central Asia trade to surpass the $100 billion mark for the first time, and why that figure matters beyond headline symbolism.The discussion explored the drivers behind this rapid expansion, including infrastructure investment linked to the Belt and Road Initiative, the spread of Chinese e-commerce platforms and payment systems across Central Asia, and the growing role of the region as a logistical corridor amid Western sanctions on Russia. Particular attention was paid to trade imbalances, anomalous export data from Kyrgyzstan, and the risk that deepening integration with China could harden into a new form of economic lock-in, even as regional governments continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy strategy.The episode then turned to a very different, but equally revealing, regional trend: the rise of so-called “dropperstvo,” the use of intermediaries to move money in fraud schemes. Using a recent case announced by Kyrgyzstan’s security services as a starting point, the discussion traced how organised networks supply SIM cards, messaging accounts, and bank access to international scam operations. These networks allow fraudsters to distance themselves from financial trails by routing victim payments through “droppers”, often young people recruited to provide temporary access to their accounts.A second case from Kazakhstan illustrated how the same mechanism appears in more mundane criminal activity, including, in one recent instance, the illegal sale of vapes using third-party payment accounts. The conversation explored why authorities in both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have moved to criminalise dropper activity itself, and why law enforcement increasingly treats this as a youth-risk and financial literacy problem rather than a purely technical crime.In the interview segment, the podcast featured Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Central Asia, discussing his 2024 paper, “Between ‘info-killers’ and ‘spies’: three strategies for interviewing government officials across Central Asia.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, Kurmanov outlined practical strategies for conducting sensitive interviews in environments marked by suspicion, weak research traditions, and political risk. The conversation focused on insider positionality, de-ceremonialising interviews, and depoliticising research questions, insights with relevance not only for academics, but also for journalists, policy researchers, and practitioners working with public institutions across the region.Links and further reading* Report on China–Central Asia trade surpassing $100 billion (Xinhua or official customs data) - https://russian.news.cn/20260118/c13465d2d3b541f4a831f65849c8d70f/c.html* Bloomberg report on Shell pausing investment in Kazakhstan - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/shell-to-pause-kazakh-oil-and-gas-investments-amid-disputes* GKNB announcement on dismantling fraud network in Kyrgyzstan - https://24.kg/proisshestvija/360311_gruppu_postavlyavshuyu_telefonnyim_moshennikam_akkauntyi_iSIM-kartyi_zaderjali_vkr/* Kazakhstan report on vape sales and dropper schemes - https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/afm/press/news/details/1148161?lang=ru* Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, Between ‘info-killers’ and ‘spies’ (2024) - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02634937.2024.2375283* Neil Collins, Elaine Sharplin, and Aziz Burkhanov (2023) — Challenges for political science research ethics in autocracies: A case study of Central Asia - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/14789299231153074 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode opened with a discussion of Kazakhstan’s provisional landmark arbitration victory against foreign oil majors over disputed costs at the Karachaganak oil and gas field. We unpacked why the ruling matters not only for the billions of dollars potentially at stake, but also for what it signals politically.Drawing on reporting by Reuters and Bloomberg, the conversation explored how the case reaches back into the era of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, how allegations of inflated or fictitious costs intersect with long-standing corruption concerns, and why the administration of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has framed the dispute as both a financial and moral reckoning. We also considered whether the ruling could meaningfully change how foreign investors behave in Kazakhstan’s extractive sector, or whether deeper structural incentives remain intact.The discussion then turned to Kyrgyzstan’s decision to challenge Russia at the Eurasian Economic Union court over changes to access to state healthcare. A key clarification emerged early on: the issue is not that migrant workers themselves are being denied medical coverage, but that their dependents are no longer automatically entitled to state healthcare. We examined how this policy fits into Russia’s broader migration strategy, including recent data showing a sharp decline in the number of migrant children in the country. The episode explored what the case could mean for the credibility of the Eurasian Economic Union, whether the bloc’s legal commitments are being hollowed out in practice, and how the court’s eventual ruling could either reinforce or further undermine trust in regional integration frameworks.In the interview segment, we spoke with Joe Luc Barnes, a journalist based in Almaty and the author of a recent article for The Times of Central Asia on declining reading habits in Kazakhstan. The conversation ranged from the economic pressures facing bookstores to the impact of currency weakness, e-commerce, and shifting language politics on the book market.We discussed why Kazakhstan appears particularly affected by global declines in long-form reading, how the retreat of Russian-language publishing has not yet been offset by Kazakh-language production, and what this means for education, public discourse, and political literacy. Barnes also reflected on state-led reading initiatives, library usage statistics, and the longer-term risks of a society increasingly shaped by short-form, screen-driven information.More reading• Reuters reporting on the Karachaganak arbitration - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kazakhstan-tribunal-seeking-billions-oil-majors-cited-corrupt-officials-sources-2026-01-30/• Bloomberg reporting on the Karachaganak arbitration - https://archive.is/PO6tN#selection-1177.0-1791.73• Joe Luc Barnes’ article in The Times of Central Asia - https://timesca.com/the-battle-to-keep-kazakhstan-reading/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

The CAPS Unlock podcast returns after a long New Year break to track how an unsettled global agenda is pulling Central Asia into the fray.We began with U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly launched Board of Peace, an initiative that started life as a Gaza oversight mechanism but quickly hardened into something broader: a leader-centric club with an unusually vague mandate and an unusually personalised governance model. The striking Central Asian angle is that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan did not just endorse the concept; their presidents travelled to Davos last week to sign the charter as founding members.We looked at what each government said publicly, what it carefully avoided saying, and why joining could be read as low-cost insurance with a highly personalised U.S. administration, even if the move sits awkwardly with both countries’ recent emphasis on multilateralism and institutional predictability.Next, we turned to a more familiar but still unsettling signal: the recent burst of openly imperial rhetoric from prominent Russian nationalist voices. Vladimir Solovyov, a well-known TV political talkshow presenter, publicly mused about extending “special military operations” to Central Asia and Armenia. A week later, Russia’s foreign ministry tried to wave it away as private opinion. Then Alexander Dugin went further, questioning the legitimacy of sovereign states across Central Asia and the South Caucasus altogether. We discussed why that official distancing rings hollow, what this kind of talk does even when it is not backed by action, and how it narrows the space for trust in the region’s already fragile security environment.For our interview segment this week, we spoke with Juan Carlos Leunissen, an independent researcher who interned with CAPS Unlock last year, about his new essay for the CAPS Unlock website on the six narratives the European Union uses to justify its investment in the Trans-Caspian (Middle Corridor) route and why the story the EU tells about connectivity may matter as much as the infrastructure itself.LINKS• Juan Carlos Leunissen essay: The six stories the European Union tells about Trans-Caspian transport https://capsunlock.org/the-six-stories-the-european-union-tells-about-trans-caspian-transport/• Abdulaziz Kamilov comments on Uzbekistan’s rationale for joining https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2026/01/23/abdulaziz-kamilov/• CAPS Unlock LinkedIn page https://www.linkedin.com/company/capsunlockorg Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This end-of-year episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast is longer than usual, deliberately so.As our final instalment of 2025, it takes stock of a year that reshaped Central Asia in ways that are still coming into focus. To help make sense of it, we were joined by CAPS Unlock co-founder and senior fellow and director of the Program on Central Asia at Harvard University’s Davis Center, Nargis Kassenova, whose perspective anchors a wide-ranging conversation that moves from borders and geopolitics to domestic politics, information space, and long-term structural change.The first part of the episode revisits four dynamics that defined the region over the past year. We begin with regional integration, focusing on what was arguably the most consequential event of 2025: the Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan border agreement. After decades of tension and periodic violence in the Ferghana Valley, the formal delimitation of the border marked a genuine regional breakthrough, with implications that extend far beyond bilateral relations.From there, the discussion turns to political power and succession. Across the region, new figures, including presidential daughters, security chiefs, and long-standing insiders, are taking on more visible roles. Rather than signalling renewal, these shifts often reflect elite anxiety about managing succession under authoritarian conditions, with mixed results and few clear models for stability.A third theme is the contraction of civic and media space. The episode examines recent crackdowns on independent journalism and political opposition, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and asks whether this tightening reflects short-term insecurity, technological disruption, or a more durable turn toward managed information environments.The conversation then widens to geopolitics. From the EU–Central Asia summit in Samarkand to the C5+1 meeting in Washington, 2025 was dense with diplomatic choreography. While Central Asia continues to hedge between Russia, China, Europe, the United States, Turkey, and the Gulf, the episode probes whether this balancing act is translating into tangible gains, or merely new dependencies, against the backdrop of global instability.In the second half of the episode, the focus turns inward. CAPS Unlock’s executive director, Aida Aidarkulova, joins the discussion to reflect on the organisation’s work over the past year: research projects, public events, translation initiatives, and efforts to strengthen regional policy communities. The conversation also looks ahead, outlining priorities for 2026 and the challenges facing independent analysis in Central Asia.The episode closes with a forward-looking segment offering interpretive signposts rather than predictions; ways of thinking about how Central Asian societies are evolving, how geopolitics is reshaping the region’s options, and how technological change is creating both opportunity and risk.This is the final CAPS Unlock podcast of 2025. We thank our listeners for their attention and support over the past year, wish you a restful holiday season, and look forward to continuing the conversation in the year ahead. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode opens on the frontier of Afghanistan and Tajikistan, where two late-November attacks on Chinese workers killed five people and injured several others at a gold mine and road-building site.With both incidents allegedly involving fire from Afghan territory, almost no independent reporting, and only terse official statements to go on, the discussion probes what can be said with confidence: why the timing is so anomalous, how the violence cuts across Tajikistan’s cautious thaw with the Taliban, and what it might mean for China’s economic footprint and security demands in this hard-to-monitor borderland.The focus then shifts to European Council President António Costa’s first official visit to Kazakhstan, billed as a celebration of ten years of the EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. The rhetoric about strategic partnership, green corridors and critical minerals is familiar; the more concrete news is the launch of talks on Schengen visa facilitation. The conversation asks whether easier travel and more direct flights could do more for Europe’s influence in Kazakhstan than another round of investment promises.In the interview slot, Almaty-based human rights lawyer Tatiana Chernobil explains what is actually in Kazakhstan’s proposed “LGBT propaganda” amendments, and why the label itself is misleading.She describes how nine existing laws and the Code of Administrative Offences would be tightened to conflate “non-traditional sexual orientation” with paedophilia, extend fines and short jail terms to individuals and businesses, and empower rewarded “public assistants” to report supposed violations. Chernobil argues that the real target is not just LBGT visibility but information control more broadly, with a chilling effect on teachers, journalists, activists and ordinary users online, and an uncomfortable convergence between Kazakhstan’s legal trajectory, Russian pressure and a cautious, economically minded European response.LINKS* Statement from the Presidential Administration of Tajikistan on the post-attack security meeting - https://president.tj/event/news/54027* Official EU press release on António Costa’s visit to Kazakhstan - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/12/04/press-statement-by-president-antonio-costa-following-his-meeting-with-president-of-kazakhstan-kassym-jomart-tokayev-in-astana/* Statement from the President of Kazakhstan’s office on the Costa visit - https://www.akorda.kz/ru/kasym-zhomart-tokaev-i-antoniu-koshta-vystupili-s-sovmestnym-zayavleniem-4114550* UN Human Rights Council statement on LGBT propaganda amendments - https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/11/kazakhstan-proposed-lgbt-propaganda-law-risks-institutionalising Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This episode departs from our usual format. Instead of the standard three-segment structure, it’s a single extended conversation with Agnieszka Pikulicka, the journalist behind Turan Tales, a long-form newsletter and podcast examining underreported stories from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Her premise is straightforward but oddly rare: Central Asia should be treated as a region with its own internal dynamics, not as a footnote to someone else’s strategic narrative.Agnieszka lived and reported in Uzbekistan for three years, until she was declared persona non grata in 2021. Her debut non-fiction book, Nowy Uzbekistan (New Uzbekistan), a Polish-language monograph published by Czarne in 2023, dissects the politics and lived realities of the Mirziyoyev period.We discuss her recent move to Almaty, one of the few remaining workable bases for independent journalism in the region, and Turan Tales’ shift toward more ambitious audio documentaries, supported by the International Press Institute’s media innovation program. She argues that most coverage still reduces Central Asia to a handful of stock frames: pipelines, strongmen, and geopolitical anxiety. Whether that’s laziness or habit is debatable, but the effect is the same: people disappear from their own stories.We also touch on figures who feature in earlier Turan Tales episodes, including Komil Allamjonov, whose role has changed since we recorded this conversation. He has now been appointed counsellor-envoy at Uzbekistan’s embassy in Washington and representative of the Presidential Administration in the United States.LINKS:• New format Turan Tales podcast produced with support from the International Press Institute • Agnieszka’s book, Nowy Uzbekistan (New Uzbekistan) https://czarne.com.pl/katalog/ksiazki/nowy-uzbekistan• Turan Tales episode on the assassination attempt against Komil Allamjonov • Komil Allamjonov appointed counsellor-envoy in Washington https://www.gazeta.uz/en/2025/11/24/komil-allamjonov/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Kazakhstan has now adopted a dedicated law on artificial intelligence, a step the government has been signalling for more than a year. Parliament approved the measure in October, and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed it into force a few days before this episode was recorded.The authorities present the legislation as a necessary foundation for developing the country’s AI sector. The stated aim is to create a clearer operating environment for businesses, attract international companies, and establish Kazakhstan as a regional leader in emerging technologies. The law follows a risk-based model similar to frameworks being developed in Europe and other jurisdictions.One notable feature is the emphasis on self-assessment and voluntary compliance mechanisms for private companies. Businesses developing or deploying AI tools are expected to evaluate risks themselves and conduct audits on their own initiative. Public debate around the legislation was limited, and many of the practical questions, such as implementation, safeguards, oversight, remain open. As the rule-making phase begins, these conversations are likely to become more prominent, especially as ministries, businesses, and civil society groups attempt to interpret how the framework will operate in practice.This week’s interview steps away from abstractions and looks at a problem that is measurable in every breath taken in Almaty. Almaty Air Initiative chief executive Zhuldyz Saulebekova explains how the city’s air-quality crisis has moved from official denial to grudging acceptance, and why the real bottleneck now is political will rather than data. Fully 200 new sensors have generated unprecedented transparency, but little of that has translated into decisive action on winter pollution sources such as coal-burning households and the expensive “last mile” connections needed to make gasification real rather than statistical.Saulebekova argues that activists have won the argument on awareness; whether they can force a shift in winter heating policy is the more consequential test.The final segment turns to Kyrgyzstan, where a wave of arrests has landed on the eve of early parliamentary elections and amid a deepening electricity crisis. Authorities may deny any political motivation, but the optics are hard to ignore: opposition figures rounded up under the familiar pretext of “preparing mass unrest” just as the country is rationing power, dimming streetlights, and cutting voltage to homes.With water levels at the Toktogul hydropower plant at historic lows, cryptocurrency blamed for excessive consumption, and neighbours scrambling to supply emergency electricity, the government is signalling zero tolerance for protest at the moment when tempers are sharpest. Whether this produces stability or merely suppresses symptoms remains unclear. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

A sudden flare-up in Ukraine’s drone war has again rattled Central Asia’s energy nerves. This episode opens with a look at how Russian refinery shutdowns are rippling across the region. When the Novokuybyshevsk plant went offline after an October 19 strike, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which are both reliant on Russia for more than 90 percent of their fuel, were left scrambling. Petrol rationing in Bishkek and mounting anxiety among traders reveal just how vulnerable those supply chains remain. And with Kazakhstan freezing domestic fuel prices to contain inflation, even its neighbours can’t count on emergency help. What begins as a refinery fire in Samara ends up exposing the region’s deeper dependence on Moscow’s infrastructure.The episode’s centrepiece turns from crisis to creativity, featuring Marzhan Tajiyeva, Education Projects Coordinator at CAPS Unlock, on the launch of the Turn It Around! Central Asian Climate Cards, developed with UNESCO’s regional office. Created by young people from across six countries, the cards combine art and education to bring climate change into everyday lessons, in Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Uzbek, Russian, and even English. Tajiyeva explains how a child’s drawing of the Aral Sea can spark empathy, critical thinking, and even policy reflection, turning students into messengers of shared responsibility. The project, part of a global initiative led by Arizona State University, now anchors a growing regional alliance for climate education.The final segment turns to football and politics. In Turkmenistan, the Asian Football Confederation has reportedly barred local clubs from hosting home games after inspectors condemned Arkadag’s flagship stadium, a supposed symbol of modernity, as unfit for play. The contrast with Almaty’s recent hosting of Real Madrid could hardly be sharper: FC Kairat’s Champions League adventure has become both a civic celebration and a study in political rehabilitation, as the club’s rise intertwines with the fortunes of its powerful backers. Even sport, it seems, can’t escape Central Asia’s habit of blending national pride with image-building and control.LINKS:CAPS Unlock statement on Turn It Around! Central Asian Climate Cards - https://capsunlock.org/news/caps-unlock-and-unesco-unveil-central-asian-climate-cards-to-bring-climate-change-into-classrooms/Fergana News report on Arkadag Stadium and AFC ban – https://fergana.agency/news/141688/Reuters reporting on Orenburg strike - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-cause-fire-russian-gas-plant-governor-says-2025-10-19/Symbol of Science journal paper portraying Arkadag FC as a showcase of Turkmenistan’s modernisation drive - https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/arkadag-fc-turkmenistans-rapid-rise-in-football Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode begins in Kyrgyzstan, where a brutal killing of a 17-year-old girl has reignited public fury and led President Sadyr Japarov to call for the return of the death penalty. The case has stirred intense debate about justice, morality, and political opportunism in a country that abolished executions nearly two decades ago. We look at how Japarov’s proposal both reflects and exploits public anger, and what it means for Kyrgyzstan’s already fragile constitutional order.The discussion later shifts to Kazakhstan, where President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s recent dismissal of global climate policy as a “massive fraud” clashes with his government’s simultaneous effort to market the country as a renewable-energy hub. At the recently concluded Kazakhstan Energy Week, ministers touted new wind and solar projects even as coal expansion and data-hungry AI ambitions deepen the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. We ask whether Tokayev’s rhetoric marks a populist pivot or a pragmatic recalibration around “energy sovereignty.”Our interview guest is Maria Adele Carrai, Assistant Professor of Global Chinese Studies at NYU Shanghai and co-director of Mapping Global China, an open-data platform that visualises Beijing’s global footprint. Carrai explains how the project uses satellite imagery and datasets to track China’s infrastructure, trade, and soft-power presence, from Kazakhstan to the Arctic, while inviting local researchers to contribute new “story maps.” She also discusses why portrayals of China as either a benign partner or a looming threat both miss the point.Useful links* Mapping Global China website – https://mapglobalchina.com/* CAPS Unlock event summary of Maria Adele Carrai lecture in Almaty - https://capsunlock.org/mapping-global-china-a-new-lens-on-beijings-reach-in-central-asia/* Kabar news agency interview with President Japarov - https://www.kabar.kg/news/el-menen-keneshebiz-prezident-olum-zhazasyn-kirgizuu-demilgesi-boyuncha-kommentariy-berdi/* TV report on President Tokayev’s speech to the National Council for Science and Technology - Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast begins with Kazakhstan’s ongoing fixation on artificial intelligence. Ever since President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made AI the centrepiece of his State of the Nation address, ministries and agencies have scrambled to demonstrate their own contributions. A new ministry has been promised, AI education standards announced, and schemes for agriculture, public administration, and even ethics frameworks unveiled. The rhetoric is upbeat: Tokayev warns that failure to embrace AI would leave Kazakhstan economically and politically marginalized. But beneath the noise lie concerns about jobs and feasibility. Officials estimate up to 1 million positions could be affected. We look at the data to ask which sectors are most exposed, how automation and AI differ, and why public sector employment makes this such a politically charged issue.Our interview segment features Asel Mussagulova, lecturer at the University of Sydney and co-author of a new paper on Kazakhstan’s policy advisory systems. She explains how state-backed research institutes, directly funded and supervised by government bodies, almost inevitably reinforce official narratives and avoid criticism. Staffing choices, internal censorship, and oversight mechanisms mean their studies often legitimise decisions already taken. Yet Mussagulova also describes how financially independent research organisations, such as the emerging generation of private think tanks, can still offer more candid advice, sometimes by engaging public opinion or leveraging international connections. The picture that emerges is less monolithic than often assumed: authoritarian regimes seek legitimacy through research, but pockets of independence persist.We close with Kyrgyzstan, where parliament has (as of September 25, following our recording) dissolved itself, one year early. Deputies argue the move will streamline election timing by avoiding back-to-back parliamentary and presidential votes, while reforms to the electoral law promise greater gender representation and easier participation for citizens abroad. But by abolishing party lists in favour of hyperlocal constituencies, the reform strengthens district-level politics at the expense of national parties. In practice, this risks leaving Kyrgyzstan with a quieter, more compliant parliament, one shaped less by vigorous debate and more by presidential authority.Links* Mussagulova & Janenova, Management and Quality of Policy Advisory Systems in Kazakhstan: The Case of Public and Private Research Organizations (Policy and Society, 2025): https://academic.oup.com/policyandsociety/advance-article/doi/10.1093/polsoc/puaf025/8236331* IMF 2023 AI Preparedness Index (DataMapper): https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/AI_PI@AIPI/ADVEC/EME/LIC* ILO study on AI and jobs: https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2025-05/WP140_web.pdf* Acemoglu & Johnson, Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity (2023): https://www.amazon.com/Power-Progress-Thousand-Year-Technology-Prosperity/dp/1399804472 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast opens with a discussion about a show of diplomatic unity in Central Asia. Following Israel’s strike on Qatar, all five governments of the region quickly issued statements of condemnation. Some went as far as calling the strike an act of aggression. We examine why these unusually swift and aligned reactions matter, how they highlight the region’s growing ties with Gulf states, and what they reveal about Central Asia’s selective application of principles such as territorial integrity.Our interview segment features Achille Jouberton, visiting scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, and lead author of a major new study on the glaciers of Tajikistan’s Pamirs. Long thought relatively stable compared to the shrinking ice fields of the Himalayas and Tien Shan, the Pamirs are now losing mass at troubling rates. Jouberton explains how declining snowfall since 2018, measured through field stations, pressure sensors, and climate reanalysis, is reshaping water availability in the region. He discusses the role of large-scale climate systems, the combination of less snow and hotter summers, and the downstream implications for agriculture and hydropower.We close by looking at President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s State of the Nation address in Kazakhstan. Among an eclectic mix of themes, including long passages on artificial intelligence, Tokayev floated the possibility of transforming Kazakhstan’s bicameral parliament into a single chamber. Though short on detail, the proposal hints at possible institutional re-engineering ahead of 2029, when Tokayev’s presidential mandate ends. We assess what this might mean for Kazakhstan’s political system and why even seemingly technical reforms can reshape the balance of power.Links:Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02611-8Tokayev’s state of the union speech: https://www.akorda.kz/ru/poslanie-glavy-gosudarstva-kasym-zhomarta-tokaeva-narodu-kazahstana-kazahstan-v-epohu-iskusstvennogo-intellekta-aktualnye-zadachi-i-ih-resheniya-cherez-cifrovuyu-transformaciyu-885145 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In the third and final instalment of podcasts recorded on the sidelines of a major history conference at Nazarbayev University, the CAPS Unlock podcast looks at how culture grows under pressure. We speak to Irina Sinepupova (a historical researcher currently pursuing her studies at Nazarbayev University) and Leora Eisenberg (PhD candidate, Harvard University) about two very different cases that expose the same paradox: culture was steered by the state, yet the results often felt vivid and genuine.Sinepupova walked us through the mechanics of Soviet literary censorship in Kazakhstan. GLAVLIT’s republican branches, she explains, were formally subordinate to Moscow but in practice leaned on local party organs. Manuscripts usually arrived “distilled” by publishing houses and writers’ unions, where criticism could be harsher than at the censorship desk. Censors looked not only for political deviations but also for “artistic quality,” an unexpected criterion written into instructions she found in archival files in Almaty. Language mattered too: a scarcity of Kazakh-language specialists created gaps, and writers often marked texts’ Kazakhness to signal origins even in Russian editions. The broader picture is one of instability and negotiation rather than a monolith: those who learned to “speak Bolshevik” could often navigate the system.Eisenberg spoke to us about Uzbek estrada, a lighter, stage-oriented popular genre that took off after Stalin. She traces why it leaned so heavily on repertoire from the “foreign East” while using European orchestration. First, heavy “big-form” European genres failed to connect with local audiences or produce enough Uzbek graduates from conservatories, so estrada served as an accessible bridge. Second, Cold War politics: Tashkent hosted Afro-Asian cultural events and film festivals, so performers who could sing Arabic, Hindi, Persian and more became cultural mediators for visiting delegations. Third, hybridity carried an ideological charge: European-style arrangements showcased Soviet modernity, while Eastern repertoires made the music legible to international audiences. Names to explore include Batyr Zakirov (notably his “Arabic Tango”), Muhabbat Shamaeva, Rano Sharipova, Stakhan Rahimov, and Elmira Urazbayeva.Together, these cases suggest that Soviet cultural life in Central Asia was less about top-down diktat than about constant bargaining among censors, unions, publishers, performers and audiences. Control set the frame; creativity filled it in surprising ways.CAPS Unlock extends immense gratitude to Professor Mikhail Akulov, Medina Kerimberdiyeva, and the Nazarbayev University student volunteers who made both the conference and this podcast possible. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week we continue a special series recorded on the sidelines of the international conference Toward New Transnational/Transimperial Histories of Central Asia: Sources, Directions, Interpretations, held at Nazarbayev University in Astana in August. This week we’re looking at what comes after the “nation-making” narrative and how historians are reframing the region through transnational and trans-imperial lenses.We speak to Adeeb Khalid (Carleton College), Adrienne Edgar (UC Santa Barbara), and Javeed Ahwar (Nazarbayev University). The conversation begins by dismantling a familiar myth that Lenin and Stalin casually drew Central Asia’s borders in late-night sessions. Instead, borders emerged from protracted bargaining between Moscow and local elites. The guests argue that while much of the nation-building story has been mapped, the field is not “finished”; it is widening to examine flows of people, ideas, and commerce that exceed state lines.Ahwar probes those written out of tidy national narratives, from Sarts to tribal identities folded into broader categories. He cautions that scholarship can unintentionally reinforce nationalism and urges more inclusive frames that acknowledge internal diversity. Edgar situates the Soviet period within a global wave of interwar nation formation, noting that nation-states might have arisen regardless, though not necessarily in the exact Soviet configuration. Khalid underscores a broader point: all nations are constructed, and in Central Asia the scaffolding is simply more visible.Where next? The guests point to two frontiers. First, reassessing transnational Soviet projects such as “friendship of peoples,” civic Sovietness, and internationalism. Second, thinking beyond the five-republic box to long-standing connections with Xinjiang, Afghanistan, and the Indian subcontinent, and to cross-pollination among major intellectual figures. The aim is a history that tracks mobility, cosmopolitanism, and overlapping imperia alongside nations.CAPS Unlock extends immense gratitude to Professor Mikhail Akulov, Medina Kerimberdiyeva, and the Nazarbayev University student volunteers who made both the conference and this podcast possible. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast we temporarily step away from our usual format for the first in a short series recorded on the sidelines of the international conference, Toward New Transnational/Transimperial Histories of Central Asia: Sources, Directions, Interpretations, which took place at Nazarbayev University in Astana, Kazakhstan, on August 20–22.We speak to Roman Osharov, a DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford whose work examines how the Russian Empire produced knowledge about Central Asia in the nineteenth century; Daniel Scarborough, Associate Professor of Russian History and Religion at Nazarbayev University; and Gavin Slade, Associate Professor of Sociology at Nazarbayev University and co-lead of the Central Asia’s Gulag project.The conversation centred on the nuts and bolts of doing history from the archives. We discuss how access varies across the region; the relative ease of Kazakhstan (with longer lead times and embassy paperwork), the difficulty and unpredictability of Uzbekistan’s main historical archive in Tashkent, and the near-impossibility of working in Turkmenistan, and why professional conduct in reading rooms matters for everyone’s access. Our guests offer pragmatic advice for younger researchers: start with national libraries and home-institution holdings; learn (and use) non-Russian languages where possible; and plan for multi-month stints once you do enter archives.We also look beyond the archive. Slade explained how archaeological survey, mapping, museum studies, and oral history can “triangulate” fragmentary files on sites like Karlag (one of the largest Gulag labour camp systems in the Soviet Union, located in central Kazakhstan) yielding grounded insights into camp layouts, daily labour, and living memory in former Gulag villages. Scarborough reflects on the dominance of Russian-language materials and ways to recover Central Asian voices; Osharov describes manuscript collections and periodicals in Persian and Turkic that can rebalance the record, and the challenge of doing so while working within “Russian history” as a field.We close on the state of play: a moment of opportunity in Kazakhstan (and, to a degree, Kyrgyzstan), tempered by fragility elsewhere, and a gentle plea to researchers not to jeopardise that access.Stay tuned for more conversations from the Toward New Transnational/Transimperial Histories of Central Asia conference in coming episodes. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we break with our usual format to bring you a wide-ranging long-form conversation with Bruce Pannier, veteran Central Asia watcher and a newly minted Research Fellow at the Yorktown Institute’s Turan Research Center.Pannier reflects on three decades of reporting and analysis, from his early days gathering scraps of information in the pre-internet 1990s to today’s denser, more contested media landscape.We explore how both Central Asian regimes and audiences have changed over time, the new sophistication of state information control, and the shifting boundaries of censorship, especially in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.We also examine how growing geopolitical autonomy, deepening partnerships with Gulf states and China, and a rising standard of living shape domestic politics.Finally, we look to the future: Will Central Asia become more technocratic, more pious, or both? And what happens when tomorrow’s leaders know both global capitalism and the Quran? It’s a candid, thoughtful exchange with someone who has seen it all. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast takes us from the heat-blasted plains of Turkmenistan to the mineral riches of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and then to end, back to Bishkek’s street theatre of power.We begin with a dive into the mooted trans-Afghan railway, a project once seen as fantasy that now edges closer to reality. We discuss Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s newly signed agreement to launch feasibility studies for the 700-kilometre route. Could this long-touted project finally break Uzbekistan out of its geographic deadlock, or will questions over security, financing, and the Taliban’s international status keep it grounded?In our interview segment, we speak with Roman Vakulchuk, head of the Climate and Energy Research Group at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Vakulchuk talks us through his new paper on the European Union’s cooperation with Central Asia on critical raw materials. Despite high-level rhetoric and investment pledges under the Global Gateway, the EU lags behind China and the U.S. in concrete deals. Vakulchuk explores why, and outlines the small, smart policy moves Brussels could make to regain ground, starting with visa reform.We close with a character study of Kamchybek Tashiyev, head of Kyrgyzstan’s security services, who once again made headlines by publicly dressing down a city official over a fenced-off plot of land. Was it law enforcement, political theatre, or both? We examine how Kyrgyz power now plays out not in parliament, but on camera, and what that says about elite dynamics across the region.Useful links:Start Slow to Go Fast? Unlocking EU–Central Asia Cooperation on Critical Materials https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/bruessel/22082.pdfThe other president of Kyrgyzstan: https://havli.substack.com/p/the-other-president-of-kyrgyzstan Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we explore a consolidating trend that could redefine Central Asia’s place on the map, not just as a post-Soviet periphery, but as a key connector to South Asia and beyond.But we open with a dispatch about CAPS Unlock activities Astana, where we just wrapped up a rule-of-law training for young professionals.Then, attention turns southward. First to a Russia–Uzbekistan business forum in Novosibirsk, where Russia made a play to reinsert itself into Afghan-bound trade, and then to Termez, the Uzbek city now at the heart of a regional reimagination.In our interview segment, we speak to Eldaniz Gusseinov, a Kazakh expert on regional politics and non-resident research fellow at the Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies. Gusseinov unpacks the significance of the Termez Dialogue, a quiet but ambitious platform aimed at boosting Central–South Asian connectivity. He discusses how countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are positioning themselves as middle powers by investing in Afghan trade routes and infrastructure, even amid regional volatility and Taliban realpolitik.Finally, we examine U.S.–Kazakhstan tensions after President Donald Trump’s announcement of 25 percent tariffs on Kazakh exports. Despite what may be minimal economic impact (although this is uncertain), the move sends confused signals about Washington’s Central Asia policy, particularly after recent diplomatic overtures. We weigh the symbolism, the snub, and what Kazakhstan’s mild-mannered response reveals.Useful links:CAPS Unlock Instagram account: https://www.instagram.com/capsunlock_org/Kazakhstan reacts to Trump tariff threats: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstans-leader-tells-trump-that-he-hopes-compromise-new-us-tariffs-2025-07-10/Report on Uzbek-Russian business forum in Novosibirsk (Russian): https://asia24.media/news/v-novosibirske-proshel-pervyy-biznes-forum-s-uchastiem-predstaviteley-uzbekistana-i-sibiri/Op-ed on Termez Dialogue written by Uzbek government official: https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/termez-dialogue-in-search-of-a-new-paradigm-for-central-and-south-asian-relations Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week we are looking at three very different but equally revealing stories from across Central Asia.First, we begin in Kyrgyzstan, where parliament passed a new law banning the online distribution of pornographic content. On the face of it, this may seem like a niche issue, but it speaks volumes about the evolving moral agenda of President Sadyr Japarov’s administration. Although proponents claim the law will uphold national values and protect youth, critics argue it is largely symbolic, and easily circumvented with VPNs. Later, we turn to climate change, and in particular, a sobering new World Bank report titled Unlivable: How Heat is Reshaping Cities in Europe and Central Asia. The report warns of rising death tolls, falling labour productivity, and overwhelmed healthcare systems as heat stress intensifies across the region. But it also offers hope, so long as authorities act thoughtfully through tree-planting, housing upgrades, and local governance reform. We explore what solutions are on the table and whether Central Asia’s institutions are agile enough to act on them in time.In our interview segment, we speak with Marco Beretta, president of the Italian-Kazakh Trade Association. Beretta shares insights into how Italy’s deepening commercial relationship with Kazakhstan is expanding beyond hydrocarbons. He discusses emerging investment in biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel, and small-to-medium enterprises. We also reflect on the significance of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s visit to Astana in May and what it revealed about European strategic interests in the so-called Middle Corridor.Suggested readingUnlivable: How Cities in Europe and Central Asia Can Survive and Thrive in a Hotter Future https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/unlivable-how-cities-in-europe-and-central-asia-can-survive-and-thrive-in-a-hotter-futureCentral Asia Barometer research on domestic violence and online content https://ca-barometer.org/assets/files/froala/207fb9867dee0c7a6e8f0968e4cd2acd4a16895d.pdf Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week, we focus on one major theme: China’s evolving relationship with Central Asia. The episode centres on the China–Central Asia summit held last week in Astana and features an extended interview with Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a leading expert on China’s role in the region.We unpack what’s new and what’s not in Beijing’s outreach, from 35 percent trade growth since the last summit to Xi Jinping’s pledges of 3,000 training spots and 1.5 billion yuan in “livelihood projects.” The episode explores the deeper story behind the formal rhetoric; particularly the establishment of a China–Central Asia secretariat and the signing of a Treaty of Eternal Good-Neighbourliness.The conversation takes a critical look at how much Central Asia is shaping this agenda versus simply reacting to it. While elites increasingly articulate their own wish lists (such as Tajikistan’s call for green AI infrastructure), Umarov argues that meaningful local agency is more visible behind the scenes, including through protest dynamics and elite negotiation.We also discuss China’s soft power strategy, shifts in public attitudes, and the dangers of dependency, especially in the digital realm. As Chinese infrastructure projects gain speed across the region, questions about transparency, workforce inclusion, and long-term sovereignty loom large.In sum, this episode asks: Is Central Asia becoming a corridor, or a partner? And can it remain a free agent in a world of increasingly strategic patrons?Useful links:CAPS Unlock & Internet Society, Kazakhstan’s Internet Landscape: Understanding Threats and Opportunitieshttps://capsunlock.org/publications/kazakhstan-internet-landscape-understanding-threats-and-opportunities/Berikbol Dukeyev, How Local Realities Compelled China to Adapt Its Soft-Power Strategy in Kazakhstanhttps://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/09/kazakhstan-china-soft-power-adaptation?lang=enOxus Society Protest Trackerhttps://oxussociety.org/viz/protest-tracker/Odil Gafarov, Boots on the Ground: What Chinese Private Security Contractors Do in Central Asiahttps://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/07/china-private-security-central-asia?lang=enMinning Town (Chinese rural development drama referenced by Xi Jinping)World Bank, Country Economic Memorandum 2025: Kyrgyz Republichttps://www.worldbank.org/en/country/kyrgyzrepublic/publication/cem-2025 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s CAPS Unlock takes us east, to a country often left out of Central Asia’s story: Mongolia. We speak to Chimguundari Navaan-Yunden, a former advisor to the Mongolian prime minister, about her recent article exploring Mongolia’s foreign policy realignment toward Central Asia.From efforts to expand rail and trade links, to high-level diplomacy and civic vibrancy, Mongolia offers a sharp contrast to its authoritarian neighbours.And CAPS Unlock program coordinator Tlegen Kuandykov shares fresh impressions from his first visit to Mongolia and reflects on the political and cultural commonalities (and differences) that shape the Greater Central Asia debate.Links:Mongolia’s Pivot to Central Asia and the Caucasus: Strategic Realignments and Regional Implications: https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13871-mongolia%E2%80%99s-pivot-to-central-asia-and-the-caucasus-strategic-realignments-and-regional-implications.htmlFreedom in the World 2025: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2025/uphill-battle-to-safeguard-rights Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week, an unusual edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast. I speak to Daniel Rosenblum, the recently retired U.S. ambassador to both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, about his decades-long engagement with Central Asia and the future of U.S. foreign policy in the region.We begin with Rosenblum’s personal journey, shaped by his family’s early activism for Soviet Jewry, and trace his career through labour union work, U.S. foreign assistance partnerships, and ultimately diplomacy. He reflects on the enduring goals of U.S. policy in Central Asia and the tensions between supporting democratic governance and engaging in hard-headed security cooperation.We also talk about the long arc of independence in Central Asia: how countries like Kazakhstan have learned to walk a diplomatic tightrope between great powers, why Uzbekistan’s reforms remain significant despite backsliding, and whether the West sometimes judges the region too harshly. Finally, Rosenblum shares his views on the dismantling of USAID under the Trump administration and what might be lost if the U.S. abandons its development commitments. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode opens with a conversation about an intensifying environmental threat in Central Asia: sand and dust storms. A major storm hit Tashkent last week, felling trees, halting flights, and triggering dangerous air pollution levels. The discussion explores long-term drivers of this trend, from climate change and Aral Sea degradation to unchecked urban construction. We examine how countries like Uzbekistan are responding with national greening strategies, and where political will may be falling short.In a second segment, we turn to Uzbekistan’s push to become a tourism hotspot. A new presidential decree aims to attract 16 million foreign visitors by the end of 2025. The episode discusses how this is being pursued through visa liberalisation, promotion campaigns, and even new “tourist villages.” But questions remain about whether the growth model is too top-down, and whether domestic tourism can be part of the solution.This week’s interview features Callum Voge, director of Governmental Affairs and Advocacy, and Amreesh Phokeer, Internet Measurement and Data Expert, both from the Internet Society. We discuss a new report that they produced in collaboration with CAPS Unlock on Kazakhstan’s digital infrastructure and internet vulnerabilities. Topics include the country’s high telecom concentration, reliance on Russian infrastructure, surveillance capabilities such as root certificate programs, and the promise (and risks) of new routing alternatives through the Caspian and China. The guests also assess what true resilience would look like, and why decentralisation matters for both privacy and economic growth.Useful readingUNCCD: Regional Strategy for Sand and Dust Storms in Central Asia https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2022-10/Regional%20strategy_SDS_%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B3%D0%BB_print.pdfBringing life back to Central Asia's desertified Aral Sea (Deutsche Welle) https://www.dw.com/en/the-aral-sea-from-lake-to-desert-to-forest/a-70987224 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode opens with a look at Kazakhstan’s oil production surge and the geopolitical and economic ramifications of the country’s deviation from OPEC+ production quotas. Despite a formal commitment to restraint, Kazakhstan reached record-breaking oil output in March and remained well above quota in May. The discussion considers whether the move reflects nervousness in Astana about slowing GDP growth and growing public discontent over inflation, as captured in a recent report by United Research Technologies Group. The report highlights a gap between official narratives and lived experience, suggesting that the government may be prioritising short-term fiscal relief through oil sales, even at the risk of undermining cartel solidarity.In a second segment, we explore a newly published academic paper, titled Bumps Along the Golden Road: Unpacking Sinophobic Sentiments in Central Asia, 2002–2023. The paper draws on protest data, survey results, and dozens of interviews to argue that anti-China sentiment has been steadily rising across the region. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan remain focal points for street protests, while Uzbekistan’s xenophobic discourse is increasingly expressed via social media. But the episode also raises questions about how far these attitudes are generalisable, and how much they may reflect temporary surges of online outrage rather than structural geopolitical mistrust.In this week’s interview, we speak with Merete Looft, a campaigner at environmental NGO Urgewald, about Kazakhstan’s potential inclusion in the Asian Development Bank’s Energy Transition Mechanism. Looft explains how the ETM seeks to retire coal plants early in favour of renewable energy, but she warns that without stricter safeguards, it risks funnelling money to fossil fuel firms with expansionist agendas. Drawing on Urgewald’s own research and coal industry tracking tools, she outlines what activists are watching for as feasibility studies proceed, and what a truly just transition should look like.Useful links• Central Asia Barometer research on attitudes toward China - https://capsunlock.org/publications/beyond-the-silk-road-navigating-the-complexities-of-central-asias-public-opinion-on-china/• United Research Technologies Group report on economic sentiment in Kazakhstan (in Russian) - https://urtg.org/research-result/indikator-ekonomicheskih-nastroenij-kazahstana-maj-2025/• Urgewald’s critique of the ADB’s Energy Transition Mechanism - https://www.urgewald.org/sites/default/files/media-files/urgewald_ADB_ETM_Paper.pdf• Europe-Asia Studies article: Bumps Along the Belt and Road - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09668136.2025.2486300?src=exp-la• Book: Backlash: China’s Struggle for Influence in Central Asia, by Bradley Jardine and Edward Lemon - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/backlash/• Gazeta.uz article about wave of anti-Chinese sentiment online - https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2025/03/11/china-uzbekistan/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode opens with reflections on Victory Day, observed annually on May. This year marked the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II, and once again the leaders of all five Central Asian republics attended Moscow’s parade. Yet beneath the rituals of state ceremony lie increasingly contested memories and shifting sentiments. The discussion draws on historian Vicky Davis’ book Central Asia and World War Two, which documents not only the human cost of the war in the region, but the systemic discrimination faced by Central Asian soldiers within the Red Army. In Kazakhstan and elsewhere, the official narrative is under pressure. While many continue to view the day as one of solemn remembrance, the war’s politicization, especially in light of Russia’s current conflict in Ukraine, is sparking discomfort, quiet resistance, and attempts to nationalise the commemorative agenda.The episode also turns to a notable development in regional fintech. Kyrgyzstan has announced a partnership with Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, to jointly develop a national digital currency system. The centrepiece of this collaboration is the “Gold Dollar” (USDKG), a new stablecoin backed by both US dollar reserves and physical gold held by Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Finance. The project positions Kyrgyzstan as a nimble actor in the evolving digital economy and raises important questions about remittances, regulation, and sovereignty in financial infrastructure.In this week’s interview, we speak with Sophie Ibbotson, the author of a newly released Bradt guidebook to Uzbekistan. The conversation covers her long-standing relationship with the country, the risks of overtourism and “disneyfication,” and why lesser-known regions like Termez and the Fergana Valley deserve more attention from travellers.Useful links* Central Asia and World War Two by Vicky Davis: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/central-asia-in-world-war-two-9781350372306/* Economist article on stablecoins: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/23/stablecoins-the-real-crypto-craze* Bradt Travel Guide to Uzbekistan: https://www.bradtguides.com/product/uzbekistan Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode opens with a look at an intriguing, if vague, agreement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan to jointly manage the Amu Darya river basin. Though details remain scarce, the deal suggests a growing willingness by both countries to cooperate on the region’s most urgent environmental and water management challenges.The conversation then turns to the World Bank’s latest economic update on Europe and Central Asia (ECA), which paints a mixed picture for Central Asia. While the region may avoid the worst of the projected ECA-wide slowdown, the report identifies serious vulnerabilities, including declining trade with Russia, falling remittances, and the waning returns of the post-sanctions re-export boom. Particularly notable is the warning about the region’s “productivity trap”: too many small, inefficient firms and too little innovation. In a nod to the region’s better prospects, the episode highlights growing intra-regional trade and the potential benefits of global economic fragmentation.For this week’s interview, we also spoke with Aynabat Yaylymova, founder and executive director of Progres Foundation. She shared sobering insights into Turkmenistan’s information black hole. The conversation explores the real-world costs of this digital repression, from public health setbacks to economic stagnation. The interview also touches on Turkmenistan’s plans for a national digital network and the state’s growing control over an increasingly isolated and unequal online space.The episode closes with a discussion of AI-generated fake videos in Kazakhstan, particularly around Victory Day. The fakes, which featured governors from Russian-bordering provinces, highlight how generative AI is being used to manipulate sensitive historical narratives and further destabilise trust in information. While government responses have been swift, the deeper challenge lies in building a healthy media ecosystem, something Kazakhstan is still struggling to achieve.Useful links:Kyrgyzstan’s trade with Central Asian countries: https://capsunlock.org/publications/kyrgyzstans-trade-with-central-asian-countries-barriers-and-opportunities/UN submission on Turkmenistan internet repression: https://progres.online/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Turkmenistan-Internet-Shutdowns-Impact-Development.pdfRSF World Press Freedom Index 2025: https://rsf.org/en/rsf-world-press-freedom-index-2025-economic-fragility-leading-threat-press-freedom Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we tackled three stories that reveal the evolving pressures, and ambitions, shaping Central Asia’s future.We began in Kyrgyzstan, where authorities recently arrested a freelance employee from the Russian cultural centre in Osh on charges of recruiting mercenaries for Russia’s war in Ukraine. It is the country’s first high-profile case of this kind. Similar concerns are mounting in Kazakhstan, where a Ukrainian Telegram channel has published lists of hundreds of alleged Kazakh, Tajik and (since the time of recording) Uzbek fighters. Investigations by journalist Lukpan Akhmedyarov suggest many were coerced, misled or lured by promises of citizenship and pay. Despite official denials, the issue has sparked uncomfortable questions about recruitment networks, state complicity, and regional responses to illegal military mobilisation.Next, we spoke with Mihra Rittmann, Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, about Kazakhstan’s increasingly hostile stance toward civil society. Rittmann detailed proposed “foreign agents” legislation, ongoing harassment of journalists, and the recent sentencing of satirical blogger Temirlan Ensebek, all signs, she says, of a deeper authoritarian turn.We ended on a note of guarded optimism: a $500 million pledge from Kazakhstan to help build a railway through western Afghanistan to Pakistan. The project would give Central Asia access to seaports and, if realised, shift the region’s trade geography. We discuss the legal safeguards involved, how this compares to Russia–Uzbekistan plans, and why optimism must be tempered with realism when it comes to Afghan infrastructure. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we unpack a string of developments that reveal the shifting geopolitics of sovereignty, identity and migration in Central Asia.We begin with an eyebrow-raising rebuke from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, directed at Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. In a recent interview, Lavrov questioned Tokayev’s position on territorial integrity, a principle the Kazakh leader has consistently endorsed. He most notably reiterated this stance during the 2022 St Petersburg Economic Forum, while sitting just a few feet from Russian President Vladimir Putin. This episode examines Lavrov’s remarks and considers what may have prompted them. One theory is that he was seeking to exploit tensions with Turkey over Northern Cyprus, an issue that indirectly touches on concerns shared by several Central Asian states.In the second half of the episode, we turn to a disturbing case of police brutality against Kyrgyz migrants in Moscow. A recent raid on a bathhouse saw dozens of men assaulted, humiliated and allegedly tortured. The incident reflects a wider trend of rising hostility towards Central Asian migrants in Russia, particularly in the wake of a terrorist attack near Moscow in March 2024. We discuss recent changes to Russia’s migration laws, the political motivations behind the crackdown, and why, despite worsening conditions, many Central Asians continue to travel to Russia for work.This episode also features an interview with economist Kanat Tilekeyev, a scholar at the University of Central Asia, who shares insights from his latest research on Kyrgyzstan’s evolving role in regional trade.Useful links:* Lavrov’s Kommersant interview: https://vkvideo.ru/video-23482909_456261207?ref_domain=kommersant.ru* CAPS Unlock analytical note by Kanat Tilekeyev: https://capsunlock.org/publications/kyrgyzstans-trade-with-central-asian-countries-barriers-and-opportunities/* Article by Tilekeyev on Kyrgyzstan’s trade agenda: https://capsunlock.org/kyrgyzstans-re-export-model-a-blessing-and-a-curse/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast returns to the landmark EU–Central Asia Summit held in Samarkand earlier this month, exploring the contours of Brussels’ latest overtures to the region.The summit brought together the five Central Asian presidents and top EU leadership, who jointly proclaimed a new “strategic partnership.” A headline €12 billion pledge under the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative includes funds for infrastructure, climate action, and digital connectivity. But amid limited media access and muted coverage, questions remain over how tangible – and how inclusive – these pledges will be.Attending the summit in person (sort of) gave us a first-hand view of how the tightly managed event contrasted with the EU’s stated goals of openness and cooperation.But how much of an impact did all this really make in the region?This episode also features a special interview with Aleška Simkić, the EU Ambassador to the Republic of Kazakhstan. She discusses ongoing negotiations to simplify Schengen visa procedures for Kazakh citizens, the political significance of person-to-person exchanges, and the EU’s long-term plans to invest in critical raw materials. Simkić outlines why the EU believes this is about partnership – not dependency – and how European engagement could offer a different model to that of other major powers.We also reference, at the start of the episode, a worrying report about an unseasonal heatwave that struck Central Asia last month. Read more here: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extraordinary-march-heatwave-in-central-asia-up-to-10-c-hotter-in-a-warming-climate/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we examine two separate but revealing stories that show how Central Asia is being shaped by forces well beyond its borders, be they military drones (launched by either Russia or Ukraine) or canals being built by Afghanistan.The episode opens with a discussion of the latest drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure in southern Russia. Although these attacks are part of Ukraine’s effort to weaken the Russian energy system, they are directly affecting Kazakhstan, which relies heavily on this route to export its oil. With foreign energy companies like Chevron, Shell, and Eni invested in the pipeline, the implications are not just regional, but international.Kazakhstan’s muted reaction to these attacks stands out. Even after three incidents, most recently on March 24, Astana has refrained from issuing strong condemnations, a strategy the hosts interpret as an attempt to quietly ride out the storm. But as we discuss, this low-key approach may be tested as the attacks continue. Meanwhile, stray drones, possibly originating from either side of the war, have landed inside Kazakhstan’s own territory, raising security concerns among the public and prompting questions about the country’s air defense preparedness.The second half of the podcast turns to water politics, specifically the impact of Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal. This massive infrastructure project, underway since early 2022, is designed to divert water from the Amu Darya river to irrigate farmland in northern Afghanistan. While this may help Afghan farmers, it spells serious trouble downstream.Uzbekistan, the main user of Amu Darya waters, is particularly vulnerable. The canal could significantly reduce the river’s flow, adding to the pressures already imposed by climate change. Yet, rather than raise alarm, Uzbek officials are opting for calm engagement. In a rare public statement on March 18, the country’s water minister emphasised dialogue and described his recent visits to Afghanistan for talks with the Taliban authorities as cordial.In the podcast, we explore the diplomatic backdrop, noting that while historic treaties between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union addressed river borders and water quality, they never tackled water allocation. With Afghanistan now actively developing the river, the absence of such agreements is becoming urgent. Uzbekistan’s strategy appears twofold: work quietly to maintain relations with Kabul, while pushing ahead with domestic reforms to improve water efficiency and infrastructure.The episode closes with a broader reflection on how Central Asia’s future may be shaped less by dramatic ruptures than by creeping transformations, in diplomacy, infrastructure, and ecology. Both topics underline the region’s challenge of navigating powerful external currents while preserving internal stability.Mentioned reports:Water Resource Development in Northern Afghanistan and Its Implications for Amu Darya Basin: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/434761468767735080/pdf/297030PAPER0Water0resource0Amu0Darya.pdfImpacts of the Qosh Tepa Canal and Climate Change on Water Availability – German Economic Team: https://www.german-economic-team.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/GET_UZB_PB_05_2023_en.pdf Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this special edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast, you will hear a frontline report and in-depth discussion of one of the most significant regional developments in Central Asia in years: the signing of a border demarcation agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.Partially recorded from the Al-Archa presidential complex in Bishkek, the episode opens with audio impressions from the day of the treaty signing, an event that marked the symbolic and practical reopening of a once-volatile border. The episode then transitions to an interview with two expert guests: former Kyrgyz ambassador to the United States and one-time journalist Kadyr Toktogulov and Tajik independent analyst Muslimbek Buriyev.Together, they explore the significance of the treaty, the regional momentum it has created, and the delicate but determined diplomacy that brought two previously antagonistic neighbours to the negotiating table. Toktogulov and Buriyev express cautious optimism that the deal will lead to increased trade, improved cross-border relations, and a fresh narrative for the densely populated and geopolitically sensitive Fergana Valley.The conversation also considers the broader implications: the potential for trilateral cooperation with Uzbekistan, the symbolic importance of the region resolving its own disputes without external mediation, and how enhanced economic interdependence could help defuse future tensions. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast delves into the freshly agreed Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border treaty, which will almost have been signed by the countries’ president soon after this edition is released, and Uzbekistan’s anti-corruption shake-up.And for this week’s interview, we speak with Aizhan Alzhanova, a representative of Mama Pro, a Kazakhstan-based organisation dedicated to supporting mothers of children with special needs.With all discussions on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border now concluded, attention is turning to technicalities related to trade, logistics, and energy. One notable development is Kyrgyzstan’s proposal to serve as a “green corridor” for Tajik goods entering the Eurasian Economic Union – an idea that raises questions about Moscow’s stance on the matter.Beyond trade, diplomatic efforts are also opening up long-shut transport routes. The long-awaited reopening of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border and the resumption of flights between Bishkek and Dushanbe could mark a turning point for connectivity in the region. These steps aim to super-charge trade to $500 million by 2030. That is a colossal amount compared to what trade is done now.Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev bared his teeth addressing the National Anti-Corruption Council last week. In a tetchy speech, he declared the current fight against graft ineffective and promptly dismissed 117 anti-corruption officials from various government agencies. These positions, introduced in 2023, were meant to provide internal oversight, but their removal suggests either signs of fracture among the ruling elite or, more simply, a failure of decentralised enforcement.Despite these setbacks, Mirziyoyev highlighted some positive trends, claiming $1.1 billion was saved in 2024 through transparency reforms in public procurement and licensing processes. However, the scale of the problem remains immense. Official data from January revealed that 5,000 officials were prosecuted for corruption last year, a 37 percent increase from the previous year.In her interview to CAPS Unlock, Aizhan Alzhanova, project development manager at Mama Pro, spoke about how some mothers with the complicated challenge of raising children with disabilities have managed, despite their difficulties, to build successful businesses. They have done so with help from Alzhanova’s organisation, which provides business training, psychological support, and a strong community network to help women raising children with special needs achieve financial independence.If you have any feedback, please contact us at [email protected] Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, hosts Peter Leonard and Tlegen Kuandykov unpack two fascinating geopolitical developments in Central Asia: a (very) long-negotiated border agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan’s deepening railway ties with Afghanistan.The episode opens with an in-depth discussion on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border deal, a historic agreement that could finally resolve decades of disputes in the Fergana Valley. We explore what led to this breakthrough, how the agreement balances land exchanges, and the political dynamics shaping its ratification. While optimism is warranted, concerns remain about whether local communities’ interests will be considered and whether Kyrgyzstan’s increasingly authoritarian government will allow open debate on the deal.In this week’s interview, we speak with Kuanysh Tastanbekova, a native of Kazakhstan and a scholar at Japan’s University of Tsukuba, to discuss how climate change education is taught in Japan and what lessons Kazakhstan can learn. From hands-on environmental awareness to fostering a culture of mindful consumption, Tastanbekova highlights why Kazakhstan’s education system needs to better connect theory to real-world issues like waste management and water conservation.The conversation then shifts to Afghanistan’s growing role in Central Asian connectivity. Uzbekistan recently signed a deal with the Taliban-led regime to extend a railway line from Hairatan to Herat, a move that could link Central Asia more directly with the Persian Gulf. We look at how this fits into broader ambitions to integrate Central Asia into South Asian trade networks, reducing dependency on Russia and China. However, logistical and soft infrastructure challenges – such as customs procedures and political stability in Afghanistan – could slow progress. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Caps Unlock podcast, we first turn our attention to the fallout from a Ukrainian drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a crucial oil transit route for Kazakhstan. With potential losses in the billions, the attack puts Kazakhstan in a diplomatic bind between Ukraine, Russia, and Western energy interests. Kazakhstan is playing cool for now. But why?Next, we feature an interview with Azhar Baisalova, a representative from MoveGreen, a Bishkek-based NGO advocating for better air quality. Baisalova highlights the severe health risks posed by air pollution, the lack of reliable official data, and the economic cost of pollution in the region. The conversation also covers ongoing efforts to transition away from coal, promote sustainable urban transport, and expand gasification programs.To end with, the podcast shifts to Kyrgyzstan, where authorities plan to integrate school surveillance cameras into the Interior Ministry’s monitoring system. The move is framed as a child protection measure but raises concerns about privacy and government overreach.For feedback or inquiries (or complaints), please reach out by email to [email protected]. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the CAPS Unlock Podcast! After a brief (ahem) break, co-hosts Peter Leonard and Tlegen Kuandykov return with another look at some fresh developments in Central Asia.In this episode:VAT hike drama in Kazakhstan: The government’s proposal to raise VAT sparked public and expert backlash. We break down what this means for the economy, businesses, and the “social contract.”EU-Central Asia connectivity: We sit down with Henrik Hololei, adviser at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for International Partnerships to discuss EU-Central Asia transport links, the Middle Corridor, and how digital solutions can improve regional logistics.And finally, Kyrgyzstan’s anthem competition: Kyrgyzstan is on the hunt for a new national anthem, offering a 1.5 million soms ($17,000) prize for the best composition. What does this mean for national identity and the region’s shifting cultural landscape? We’d love to hear from you! Share your thoughts and feedback at [email protected]. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, Peter Leonard and Tlegen Kuandykov explore the growing air pollution crisis in Central Asia, focusing on cities like Bishkek and Almaty, which face severe air quality challenges due to coal heating, unplanned urban development, and sandstorms. The conversation highlights governmental responses such as gasification projects, public transport reforms, and the need for environmental education.The episode then pivots to Turkey’s expanding influence in Central Asia. Peter and Tlegen are joined by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, managing director of the European Neighbourhood Council, to discuss Turkey’s strategies, including its role within the Organization of Turkic States and its increasing regional clout.Finally, the episode delves into the implications of Syria’s shifting dynamics for Central Asia, exploring concerns about returning fighters and regional security.We welcome your feedback, questions, and comments at [email protected] -- your input could shape future episodes! Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week on the CAPS Unlock Podcast, co-hosts Peter Leonard and Tlegen Kuandykov delve into two major stories shaping Central Asia. First, they share a wide-ranging interview with Ambassador Terhi Hakala, the outgoing EU Special Representative for Central Asia. Ambassador Hakala reflects on the evolution of the EU’s 2019 Central Asia strategy, the region’s connectivity priorities, and initiatives targeting youth, climate resilience, and green development.Later, the conversation shifts to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to Kazakhstan. Peter and Tlegen explore the diplomatic spectacle in Astana, from fighter jet displays to the CSTO summit. They unpack the agreements signed during Putin's meeting with President Tokayev, the unresolved nuclear energy debate, and Kazakhstan's nuanced position within Russia's orbit.Is Kazakhstan asserting strategic autonomy? What’s the future of regional collaboration in a shifting global order? Tune in to hear what they have to say.For feedback and suggests, please send emails to [email protected] reading:* The EU's New Central Asia Strategy (2019). Find here. * Analysis from the Center for European Policy Studies, published back in 2019, criticising the EU's level of investment in Central Asia compared to China’s.* Strategic Autonomy for Central Asia: Authored by Nargis Kassenova, this report discusses how Central Asian countries can pursue strategic autonomy with insights from the EU. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to the debut episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, hosted by Peter Leonard, Communications Coordinator at CAPS Unlock. In this introductory episode, Peter is joined by executive sirector Aida Aidarkulova and program coordinator Tlegen Kuandykov to explore the mission of CAPS Unlock and the think tank landscape in Central Asia.We discuss the organization's focus on critical areas such as international relations, social and economic justice, digital democracy, and climate change. Learn about CAPS Unlock’s recent initiatives, including a regional trade conference in Tashkent, and the challenges regional think tanks face, from funding constraints to academic freedom. We also highlight the importance of youth engagement, partnerships, and creativity in sustaining research.Contact Us:Feedback or suggestions? Reach out at [email protected]. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe