All Episodes
Sentinel Minutes — 85 episodes
″🟡 OpenAI’s largest frontier RL run remains paused, mysterious model appears on OpenRouter, US unveils new sanctions on Iran || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, belikewater
″🟡 Chinese company delays release of AI model weights, hackers use autonomous agents to compromise Taiwanese agencies, Trump cuts US participation in military exercises with South Korea || Global Risk” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 OpenAI incident involved multi-agent cooperation, US-Iran deal still out of reach, Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza plan || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Iran War widens, OpenAI and Anthropic find evidence of more cyber breaches, frontier AI staff sign open letter || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 OpenAI model breaches containment, Houthis and Saudis clash, US and Iran pause attacks for over two days || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
″🟩 Iran War persists with more US troops killed, Chinese startup releases Kimi K3, Ebola continues to spread || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 US-Iran ceasefire breaks, OpenAI releases GPT-5.6, China and the US consider AI trade restrictions || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
″🟩 Anthropic export controls lifted, Russia closed border crossings with some neighbors, OpenAI mulls giving US a 5% stake || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
″🟩 US and Iran resumed fighting before renewing ceasefire, Crimea declared state of emergency, access to new OpenAI model restricted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Strait of Hormuz traffic rises, US fears China has access to restricted chip manufacturing machine, Ebola deaths rapidly increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
″🟩 Trump administration imposes export controls on new Anthropic model, US-Iran peace deal announced, Ebola spreads further || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Iran and Israel exchange fire for first time since April, Trump signs AI executive order, Ebola outbreak grows || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Russian drone hits Romanian apartment block, Ebola deaths rise at slower pace, Anthropic surpasses OpenAI valuation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Renewed US-Iran negotiations, OpenAI and DeepMind models solve Erdos problems, Ebola deaths increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 US and China discuss AI guardrails, Ebola declared a Public Health Emergency, Trump and Iran trade barbs || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 US-Iran stalemate continues, Putin says Ukraine war may come to an end, White House considers AI executive order || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #19/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Iran says it will target US naval vessels, GPT-5.5 similar to Mythos on cyber tasks || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
″🟡 US-Iran peace talks called off, unauthorized access to Claude Mythos, shots fired at Trump dinner, El Niño coming || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere
″🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Trump threatens Iranian power and desalination plants, aviators from downed F-15E rescued, Claude Code leak, updated ASI timelines || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Iranian steel and nuclear plants bombed, Houthi attacks begin, AI solves open problem in mathematics || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Oil and gas facilities attacked in the Middle East, another US Marine unit deploying to the Middle East, desalination plants threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Trump threatens NATO, US bombs Kharg Island in Iran, US Marine unit deploying to Middle East || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Iran War continues, Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sharp drop in Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan, Alibaba AI agent mystery || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #10/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 US and Israel strike Iran, Iran retaliates against US allies, Anthropic designated a supply chain risk || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #9/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 US buildup in Middle East continues, Russian vessel en route to Cuba, AI time horizons lengthen | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #8/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East, European nuclear deterrent discussed, pandemic preparedness deprioritized at NIAID | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #7/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Anthropic and OpenAI release new models, US-Iran talks continue, illegal biolab in the US, nuclear arms treaty expires | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #6/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 AI social network Moltbook grows, US-Iran tensions simmer, Nipah pandemic unlikely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #5/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Trump walks back Greenland threats, US sends warships to the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #4/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟨 “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, “that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot” || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Trump administration mulls strikes on Iran and says the US will own Greenland, DOJ launches investigation into Fed Chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #2/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 US attacks Venezuela and captures Maduro, threatens Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Denmark || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #1/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewater
″🟩 Forecasts for drone attacks and AI time horizons; China holds military drills around Taiwan and imposes sanctions on US arms manufacturers || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #52/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 AI unemployment and IPOs in 2026, EU funds Ukraine from its own pockets, US seizes Chinese-owned tanker || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #51/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩EU freezes Russian assets, US and Iran seize oil tankers, Trump restricts AI regulation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #50/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩US signals diminished role in NATO, Russia-Ukraine talks falter, Hassett likely to become next Fed chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #49/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Airspace closed over Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine talks continue, DeepSeek reaches gold IMO level || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #48/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Ukraine peace plan, US continues activity around Venezuela, state AI regulation moratorium round 2 || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #47/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Rising China-Japan tensions, Iran seizes oil tanker, AI-directed cyberattacks disrupted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #46/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Iran drought warning, rebels agree to Sudan ceasefire, Trump tariffs threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Trump threatens to send troops to Nigeria and denies Venezuela attack plans, China-US trade détente || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #44/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
″🟩 Aircraft carrier ordered to the Venezuelan coast, chance of Trump 3rd term, bird flu spreading with fall migration || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #43/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, belikewater
″🟢 CIA authorized to operate in Venezuela, Trump walks back China tariff threat, Budapest to host US-Russia meeting on Ukraine || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #42/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
″🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
“California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #40/2025” by Nuño Sempere
“EU may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #38/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
″🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
“Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
“Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
“UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, anpaure
“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
“Israel preparing to take over Gaza City, ceasefire in Ukraine unlikely to happen soon, Trump deploying National Guard in DC, GPT-5 released | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2025” by Nuño Sempere
“Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, US fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025” by Nuño Sempere
″🟢 Thailand v. Cambodia clashes erupted and resolved, White House AI Action Plan released, Anthropic faces billion-dollar lawsuit | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
″🟢 Taiwan defense rehearsals, Israel-Syria ceasefire, IMO Gold at OpenAI | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com
“Houthis sink ships, US tariffs for US allies and secondary tariff threats for Russia, Grok and Kimi model releases | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com
″🟢 Big Beautiful Bill passed in the US, Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine, Musk announced new America Party | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2025:” by Nuño Sempere
″🟢 US bombs Iran, India again rejects water treaty | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, scott eastmanphoto.com, Tolga Bilge
″🟡 Israel attacks Iran, US protests continue, China deploys 2 aircraft carriers in Pacific | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2025″ by Nuño Sempere
“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater
“Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles, Russia intensified conventional attacks on Ukraine, US-Iran nuclear talks continue | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur
“Ukraine drones destroy 41 Russian planes, proposed taxes on foreign investment, uranium enrichment continues in Iran | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025” by Nuño Sempere
“Iran nuclear talks survive, Claude 4 release, trade tensions reignite | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: US credit rating downgraded, $1T in Gulf state investments in the US, Kurdistan Workers’ Party disbanded.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: India/Pakistan ceasefire, US/China tariffs deal & OpenAI nonprofit control” by Nuño Sempere
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2025: US tariff shortages, military policing, Gaza famine.” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2025: India-Pakistan standoff, Iran and Ukraine talks, AI time horizons” by Nuño Sempere
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2025: Trade disruptions, US hacks China Winter Games, OpenAI not testing finetuned models.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
“The US Executive vs Supreme Court Deportations Clash” by Nuño Sempere
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2025: Tariff yoyo, OpenAI slashing safety testing, Iran nuclear programme negotiations, 1K H5N1 confirmed herd infections.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2025: Chinese military exercises, French 2027 election front-runner banned, stock market fall” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur
“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2025: Bombing Iran, Turkey protests, mpox vaning.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
“1 in 3 chance that US will strike Iran by end of April” by belikewater, Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur
″[Andrew Dragon] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
″[Andrew] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2025: Famine in Gaza, H7N9 outbreak, US geopolitical leadership weakening.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
″[Ryan] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
″[Ava] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur
“Sentinel minutes #10/2025: Trump tariffs, US/China tensions, Claude code reward hacking.” by Nuño Sempere
“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur